Iran has targeted a U.S. naval base in Bahrain, highlighting shortcomings in its air defense capabilities that will worry Washington and its allies in the region.
Video appeared to show missiles and drones striking near the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.
There have been no reports of casualties. The U.S. military may have been warned about the attack and took precautions to evacuate personnel.
Former Royal Navy commander Tom Sharp said Bahrain could be seen as a high-profile target by Iran, which has had relatively few air defense capabilities in the past.
Now, a video appears to underline this, showing a relatively slow-moving Iranian Shahd drone breaching its defenses. In Ukraine, such drones can often be shot down with simple large-caliber machine guns.
In the past few weeks, the United States has reportedly sent more air defense systems to the region, including the advanced THAAD and Patriot systems, which can shoot down ballistic missiles. But these products are expensive and limited in quantity.
For context, Ukraine has fewer than 10 Patriot companies but is still trying to defend its capital, Kiev.
The United States still cannot have enough troops to protect all of its military bases and interests in the Middle East.
The U.S. Navy also has about a dozen Arleigh Burke-class destroyers deployed in the Gulf and eastern Mediterranean.
These anti-aircraft destroyers can also shoot down drones and ballistic missiles.
They have proven effective against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen in the Red Sea. Between 2024 and 2026, the United States intercepted nearly 400 Houthi armed drones and missiles.
U.S. fighter jets that have been sent to the area are also capable of intercepting drones and missiles. The United States currently has more than 100 jets in the region.
But even these significant capabilities are unlikely to be enough to prevent Iran from successfully striking certain targets.
Before the recent attacks by the United States and Israel, Iran likely still had about 2,000 short-range ballistic missiles. It has more one-way attack drones.
Iran’s Shahd drones have been exported to Russia and continue to wreak havoc across Ukraine. Russia is now producing thousands of these drones every month and may be helping Iran improve its technological capabilities.
[BBC]
Sharp said that while he was serving in the Royal Navy, they conducted war games simulating Iranian attacks on military bases in the Middle East. In some cases, missiles and drones will inevitably penetrate limited air defense systems.
“If the Iranians unleash everything — if the regime feels threatened and moves quickly, eventually the United States will run out of THAAD and Patriot interceptors,” he said.
Sharp also said Iran’s drone and missile capabilities are “very fragmented.”
But Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a U.S. research group focused on foreign policy, said there may be evidence that the Iranians, while willing to retaliate, may not want to escalate it into a wider conflict.
He said it was unclear how much damage U.S. and Israeli attacks last year had caused to some of Iran’s military capabilities.
“Early indications are that Iran’s retaliatory actions are quite modest in scale,” he added.
It’s worth remembering that, a year after targeting Yemen’s Houthis, the United States has compromised but not destroyed their ability to launch missiles and drones.
Iranian Shahd drones wreak havoc across Ukraine [Getty Images]
Wars fought solely from the air rarely result in decisive victory or regime change.
The 2011 NATO-led bombing campaign in Libya may have been a rare exception, although in that case the chaos ensued.
Iran also possesses significant capabilities to attack the U.S. Navy—if within range. It has a large number of anti-ship missiles, as well as small, fast, unmanned attack craft. There is also an open question whether China has provided military support to Iran in the past few months.
Daniel Byman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said an early strike could damage Iran’s leadership and military assets, but the United States “may have difficulty sustaining operations and Iran’s main path to survival is to endure.”
Ukraine serves as a reminder of the importance of air defense. This remains President Volodymyr Zelensky’s top request from his allies.
Ukraine has also shown how difficult it is to defend against multiple, complex attacks involving hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles. The United States has more resources and will join Israel in targeting Iran’s drone and missile factories and launch sites.
But eliminating this threat will not be easy. A protracted conflict poses challenges not only to Iran, but also to U.S. weapons stockpiles and supplies — in a war far from home.
