With President Donald Trump calling for regime change in Iran, the country’s leadership now faces an existential threat and could respond accordingly to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, experts say.
Compared with when the United States joined Israel in a 12-day war against Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025, the Islamic Republic appears to have launched fewer missiles and drones in retaliation so far.
But retired Adm. James Stavridis, former NATO supreme allied commander, told CNN on Saturday that Iran has two options. One is to continue launching missiles at the current pace and keep a low profile.
“Option two: If they really believe they are on their last legs, they could take big action, which means closing the Strait of Hormuz and carrying out terrorist attacks on American diplomats, businessmen and citizens in the region and elsewhere,” he added. “They can free up their remaining proxies, particularly the Houthis, and they can try to shut down shipping in the Suez Canal again. So they still have a lot of cards to play.”
Energy analysts have warned that closing the Strait of Hormuz could cause Brent crude prices to surge to $100 a barrel. About 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait.
Ahead of the U.S. and Israeli air strikes, Iran conducted military drills near the strait to demonstrate the threat, although there is no sign it is trying to do so now.
The initial U.S. airstrikes on Saturday also reportedly targeted Iranian naval assets in the Persian Gulf, which could undermine Tehran’s ability to close the strait. Trump vows to destroy Iran’s navy.
Stavridis also recalled the teachings of the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu, who recommended finding ways to resolve conflicts without actually fighting, but rather fighting on the “dead ground.”
“I think the Iranian leadership may feel like it’s on its last legs. I hope they can go bigger,” he predicted.
At the same time, Colin Clark, executive director of the Soufan Center security consulting firm, also warned that Iran may take extreme measures, including terrorism, to retaliate.
“For Iran, this war is a matter of life and death. Because of this, I fully expect Tehran to activate whatever latent organizational capabilities it has in the West to cause pain to the United States and Israel. Hezbollah and other forces will likely seek to launch attacks in Europe, North America, etc.,” he posted on X.
Thomas Warrick, an Atlantic Council scholar and former deputy assistant secretary of state for counterterrorism policy at the Department of Homeland Security, also raised the possibility that Iran could use an “asymmetric” strategy against the United States.
He said in a blog post that the regime may target Trump and other senior U.S. officials by putting pressure on the FBI, Secret Service and Capitol Police.
“Iran will try every cyber trick at its disposal to test the Department of Homeland Security, the private sector and U.S. cyber defenses,” Warwick added. “Iran has tried unsuccessfully to interfere in U.S. elections in the past and will almost certainly have no impact this time. Although the U.S. imports very little oil from the Middle East, energy prices could soar, hampering the U.S. economy.”
This story originally appeared on Fortune.com
