The 2026 midterm elections will be held on November 3. (Photo: John Partipilo)
Based on past state elections in similar political environments, Tennessee could see 16 competitive state House and Senate races this fall, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Watch Group Dave’s redistricting election data.
Nationally, Democrats are expected to perform strongly in the 2026 midterm elections, but the question remains how strong and whether Republicans will do so in Tennessee after nearly two decades of rule.
Republicans control the state House of Representatives 75-24 and the state Senate 27-6.
The political environment for the 2026 midterms is most similar to the 2025 special election for a U.S. House seat in Middle Tennessee and the 2018 Tennessee Senate race. In both elections, the Republican Party controlled the White House, and the president’s approval rating was around 40%.
In the 2025 special election, Democratic candidates won 45% of the vote, less than a year after Vice President Kamala Harris took 38% of the precinct vote and a 7-point difference. In 2018, Democratic Senate candidates won 45% of the statewide vote, while two years ago, former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton won 34% of the statewide vote, an 11-point difference.
No one in the Democratic Party performed as well as former Gov. Phil Bredesen did in the 2018 race against Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who ultimately won.
Games worth watching
The most competitive district will be Memphis, where Republican Rep. John Gillepsie holds the seat won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Gillespie faced similar headwinds in 2024 but won by about 3 percentage points. Memphis businessman Jesse Huseth, who ran against Gillespie in 2024, will challenge Gillespie again. State Rep. Mark White and Sen. Brent Taylor, both Memphis Republicans, won the seats Trump won by less than 10 percentage points.
Democrats may also be forced to defend some seats in Middle Tennessee. In Clarksville, state Rep. Ronnie Glynn holds the seat Trump will win in 2024, having won it narrowly in the past two elections. In West Nashville, where state Rep. Caleb Hemmer won back-to-back elections, Harris won the seat by 0.2 percent. Hemmer announced he would not run for re-election. Three Democrats have announced their intention to run for the seat.
It’s unclear whether there will be Democrats or Republicans running in those races. The deadline for candidate submissions is March 10 at noon. The primary election is August 6 and the general election is November 3.
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