One of the most unpopular opinions I’ve shared on Turf Show Times is that the Los Angeles Rams may regret not drawing the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5. My argument is simple: if it’s week 18 and you Know Does it make sense to win the NFC West division with a tie? If your answer is yes (and it obviously should be), then the value of the tie should be considered throughout the season. Not just when it’s obvious.
Well, you don’t know if a draw will play that big of a role early in the season, but the coach should still consider The possibility exists, especially against a conference opponent in a game you know will be close all season long. Now we’re faced with the consequences of a loss to the 49ers instead of a tie:
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If the Rams tie the 49ers in Week 5, they still have a chance to grab the NFC’s top seed.
Instead, Los Angeles is locked in at 5 or 6, and they let the 49ers and Seahawks decide who wins the division and are in a power position with bye weeks and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
McVay said it was a draw. no way Becoming a consideration could not only prevent the Rams from suffering a huge loss, but also prevent the 49ers from scoring a valuable win against their division rival. This is why there is so little to do in Los Angeles compared to San Francisco and Seattle.
Despite being arguably the best team in the division (if not the NFL), the Rams are still stuck in third place, and that’s about as far as they can get into the playoffs.
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But if the Rams tie the 49ers in Week 5, and everything else remains the same, they only need to beat the Falcons and Cardinals, plus a 49ers win over the Seahawks on Saturday, to give Los Angeles the top seed in the division. Then the standings will look like this:
No other team in the league has won more than 12 games. The Rams will be the No. 1 seed.
However, that didn’t happen, and the Rams are unlikely to do better than the fifth seed and will likely be on the road throughout the postseason.
If the Rams had chosen to take a field goal in overtime against the 49ers instead of McVay’s self-admittedly poor 4th-and-1, what would have been the likelihood of a tie or win?
First, the Rams improved to 4-1 in SF11 with 3:41 left in overtime.
Any claim that even Josh Carty can’t knock down a 28-yard field goal is just coping. That’s true on 98 percent of the Rams’ field goals.
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Thus, the Rams and 49ers would be tied 26-26 with less than 4 minutes left in the game.
Second, the Rams need to prevent the 49ers from getting into field goal range.
The clock is not an issue. But remember, Mac Jones was the quarterback, and the 49ers punted on four of their last eight possessions, and the other four ended in field goals; one of those attempts came from 59 yards.
The 49ers even get into field goal range, and then Pineiro may need to punt again 50 or 55 yards out, which could be a 50/50 proposition. This doesn’t guarantee the 49ers won’t win the game, but it only matters if the actual outcome of the game is different:
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The 49ers did win the game. The Rams couldn’t have done worse than lost the game. They decided to call Kyren Williams a run instead of tying the ball, so the game was already lost. What does it matter if they lose under different circumstances? It’s still a loss. Going for the tie gives the Rams a chance to get a stop (which they’ve done half the time since Mac Jones went off the script) and either win the game or tie it.
The Rams could have taken a field goal and still won. They could have taken a shot and tied the game. Either outcome would mean the Rams remain the No. 1 seed today. The only result of eliminating them is loss. But McVay made it clear after the game that the Rams refused to tie the 49ers:
“We came here to win football games. (Going for a draw) was not a thought at all. The game selection was very poor.”
Don’t even have an idea?
How could it not even have a thought?
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It’s easy to come up with ideas and then reject them. Just say no. But at least consider what the consequences might be. As I wrote on October 3, there are plenty of teams in recent history that could have made the playoffs or improved their playoff standings by drawing instead of losing. Not considering the possible outcomes of a draw is not only a poor strategy, but a lack of strategy. This is an avoidance strategy.
Yes, you should play to win. But you also deserve to win the division.
Even discounting ties against division rivals you know can win the division, it’s not just a fourth-and-1 decision to win the battle. This may be the fourth time and the first time the war has been declared lost.
