Joby’s slow expansion has disappointed its early investors.
Its first commercial air taxi flight could take off as early as 2026.
It is likely to experience rapid growth over the next few decades.
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Joby Air(NYSE: JOBY)Developers of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft have yet to achieve any life-changing results since their public debut four years ago. The company, which went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), started trading at $10.62 per share. However, it is currently trading at around $13.
Like many other SPAC-backed startups, Joby overpromised and underdelivered. In a pre-merger presentation, the company projected its revenue would jump from zero to $131 million in 2024, $721 million in 2025, and $2.05 billion in 2026. However, in 2024, the company only earned $136,000 in revenue from the U.S. Air Force contract, resulting in a net loss of $608 million.
This major misstep is disappointing, but Joby still has a first-mover advantage in the emerging eVTOL market. If the market expands over the next few decades, it could generate ten times the revenue (or more) as its electric VTOL aircraft replace traditional helicopters.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
Joby’s first eVTOL aircraft, the S4, can carry a pilot and four passengers. It can travel 150 miles on a single charge and has a top speed of 200 miles per hour. The company is also developing a hydrogen-powered version that can charge faster and travel five times further. Joby operates a test fleet of five aircraft, including a hydrogen-powered prototype.
S4’s closest competitor, Archer Airof (NYSE:ACHR) Midnight has the same passenger capacity but can only travel 100 miles on a charge and has a top speed of 150 mph. The S4 is faster and more fuel-efficient than the Midnight because it uses a tilt-rotor propeller that rotates between boost and cruise modes. The Midnight is heavier and less energy efficient because it uses separate propellers for lift and cruise.
Joby has a $131 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) to provide up to nine eVTOL aircraft to the U.S. Air Force. The company has so far delivered the first two aircraft under the contract and a test aircraft in Dubai ahead of planned air taxi services in 2026. The company has also completed a growing number of test flights in the United Arab Emirates, South Korea and Japan.
Joby’s business is still in its infancy but has already attracted significant support from major investors and high-profile clients, including toyota(NYSE:TM) and Delta Air Lines(NYSE: DAL). Joby also received Uberof (NYSE:UBER) The air ride-hailing department will be upgraded in 2020, and Blade’s passenger helicopter ride-hailing service will be upgraded in August 2025.
These acquisitions will support its future eVTOL air taxi services. Uber plans to integrate Joby’s S4 flights into its core app, and Delta Air Lines is partnering with Uber and Joby to launch the first S4 air taxi routes in New York and Los Angeles. The plans sound promising, but they depend on full approval from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for commercial flights.
Joby expects the FAA to give full approval for its first commercial flights in the United States in 2026. The company also plans to launch its first air taxi flight in Dubai within the year.
Assuming these milestones are crossed, analysts expect Joby’s revenue to grow to $40 million in 2025, $113 million in 2026, and $207 million in 2027. With a market capitalization of $12.7 billion, or 61 times 2027 sales, Joby may already look expensive.
However, it is predicted that by 2045, there may be 30,000 electric VTOL aircraft carrying 3 billion passengers worldwide eve air trafficof (NYSE: EVEX) Recent global market outlook. This growth trajectory assumes that eVTOLs will replace traditional helicopters for short-range travel.
Joby did not release a price tag for the S4, but most analysts estimate it will cost about $1.3 million per plane. If it captures one-third of the eVTOL market by 2045 and sells 10,000 eVTOLs per year, it could generate about $13 billion in annual revenue. Even if these market prices decline as the industry matures, it can still generate $10 billion in annual revenue at $1 million per eVTOL.
If Joby reaches $10 billion in revenue by 2045 and trades at 13 times sales, its market value will increase tenfold to $130 billion. If it dominates the market and sells more electric VTOL aircraft, its market value could soar even higher. Although Joby is a speculative stock today, it could be a potential long stock for patient long-term investors.
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool works for and recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Airlines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
How Buying Joby Aviation (JOBY) Stock Today Can 10X Your Net Worth originally published by The Motley Fool
