It’s time to fill out your list, and what’s March without some crazy support from the Cinderella team? Scott Pianowski of Yahoo Sports revealed that four teams will exceed expectations in Week 1 of the NCAA men’s tournament.
Note: All team statistics provided by the indispensable KenPom.com.
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I know the desire for underdogs is strong as we prepare for the NCAA Tournament, but I’m going to be cautious as I fill out my bracket this week. The NIL era may have turned the tournament into a favorite-friendly tournament, with a big difference between schools with higher salaries and schools with lower salaries. Consider that last March, all four No. 1-seed teams reached the Final Four, and only one double-digit team (Arkansas, the No. 10 seed) survived the first weekend.
[Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem: Fill out brackets for your shot at $50K]
Of course, one set of results doesn’t prove anything. With that in mind, let’s begin today’s assignment with a few Cinderellas (with varying depths of vision) that have the opportunity to exceed their expectations and last longer than initially suggested.
Light Cinderella: St. John’s College (No. 5 seed in East Region)
If you just picked all the higher seeds to advance in each game, there wouldn’t be a single team in the Sweet 16 higher than the No. 4 seed. So if St. John’s can get through Week 1, it will have exceeded expectations.
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It wasn’t a great season for the Big East, which is why St. John’s finished in fifth place despite blitzing to end the year at 19-1. The Johnnies dominated Connecticut for 40 minutes in the Big East final, but that didn’t move them higher on the seeding line.
While St. John’s will be challenged by Northern Iowa in the first round, I expect the Johannes to survive and potentially face Kansas on the weekend (although rebounding-dominated Cal Baptist is no match for Kansas in the first round either). The Jayhawks have been a Jekyll-Hyde team all year, with star freshman Darryn Peterson battling injuries and inconsistency. Kansas enters the tournament with a slump of 4-5 and a metric profile that isn’t as impressive as St. John’s. St. John’s will likely be favored over the weekend.
St. John’s has a roster loaded with star power, including Big East Player of the Year Zubie Ejiofor and legendary head coach Rick Pitino. The Johnnies aren’t a great shooting team, but they are ruthless on the offensive glass. St. John’s is a dangerous defense that will protect the rim and turn opponents over. I think this team wins at least two games — not a bold prediction, but at least a seeding loss — and then gives Duke a 40-minute problem in the Sweet 16.
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Mid-Cinderella: UCLA (No. 7 seed, East Region)
It’s been an inconsistent season for the Bruins, who started the season ranked No. 12 nationally but fell out of the rankings before Christmas. When Michigan and Michigan State both beat UCLA in mid-February, there was reason to wonder whether the Bruins would make the tournament.
Head coach Mick Cronin has had an answer since Feb. 21, when he pulled off a stunning comeback win over Illinois State in overtime. That sparked a 6-1 run to end the season before losing to Purdue in the Big 10 semifinals. The seven-point loss was respectable considering forward Tyler Bilodeau (knee) did not play and guard Donovan Dent (calf) was limited to 10 minutes. Bilodeau and Dent are clearly the two best players at UCLA.
The Bruins have the hallmarks of a dangerous March team — experience (14th nationally), low turnover rate (12th), a good shooting unit (16th in 3-point percentage, 41st in free throw percentage). Early health reports suggest Bilodeau and Dent will perform well this week — and I suspect Cronin legitimately feels that, while winning last Saturday’s game at Purdue would be nice, it’s not worth the risk of missing the NCAA Tournament.
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I would definitely pick the Bruins to face UCF in the first round – as they hope to do – and I don’t think they’ll be at a disadvantage in the second round against likely UConn (a scrutinized second team). UCLA’s third-round game against Michigan State could be an interesting rematch — the MSU team UCLA got revenge on last week in the Big 10 tournament.
Deeper Cinderella: VCU (11th seed, South Region)
Virginia Commonwealth is no stranger to the NCAA Tournament, making its 15th appearance since 2024. They’ve had some upsets along the way, surprising Duke in 2007 and living the dream in 2011, going from the First Four to the Final Four in two glorious weeks. This year’s team entered the dance with a 16-1 record and easily advanced to the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
If the Rams beat North Carolina in the first round, it would only be a minor upset. The Tar Heels were favored by just 2.5 points and, of course, were without star forward Caleb Wilson. UNC lost to Duke without Wilson and then to Clemson in the ACC Tournament. The Tar Heels have struggled with perimeter defense all season, and that’s been a big problem for the Rams, who shot 36.7 percent from three.
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Even in a tournament game that doesn’t reward upsets, I would have VCU win at least one game, and while I don’t expect VCU to beat Illinois in Week 2, it will at least have a chance to win in that tie.
Dream Cinderella: Hofstra (No. 13 seed, Midwest)
When you try to imagine a hockey game losing, you’re drawn to the sexy goaltender (looking at you, Connor Hellebuyck). For a less talented team, this is the quickest way to eliminate a deeper roster.
Basketball’s version of popular goaltending is the three-point shot. Think about what St. Peter’s does in 2022 or Oakland two years ago — schools that beat opponents primarily by shooting from beyond the arc. Doug Edt and Jack Goerke will forever live in our memories.
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Hofstra shot 36.8% from beyond the arc and has three outstanding shooters in the starting rotation (Cruz Davis, Preston Edmead, German Plotnikov). Its opponent, Alabama, is not an elite team defensively on the perimeter this year. Although Hofstra is a double-digit underdog, don’t get hung up on the frustrating potential here.
To be fair, Alabama’s outside shooting metrics are nearly as good as Hofstra’s, and obviously, Alabama plays a much more difficult schedule. But I’m willing to be open to the possibility of the Pride beating the Tide, and maybe there will be chaos in this part of the Midwest. The sidecar matchup against Hofstra/Alabama will also be interesting — No. 12 Akron could be a walking dog against a No. 5 Texas Tech team that’s vulnerable right now with star forward JT Toppin losing for the season.
