PARIS (AP) — Rising oil prices are causing pain at gasoline pumps due in large part to the impact of Iran’s war on the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for Persian Gulf oil and natural gas. The narrow waterway off Iran’s coast is now effectively closed because of the war, but it is vital to the global economy and governments are drawing up blueprints to reopen it quickly once the shooting stops.
In Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron is leading an international effort to unblock energy chokepoints so that oil, gas and goods can flow freely again “when circumstances permit.” He envisions countries using warships to escort oil tankers and container ships through the strait whenever the fighting becomes less intense.
Former naval officers who served in the Strait of Hormuz and are intimately familiar with the waters said that if foreign naval forces tried to reopen the channel before hostilities ceased, ships would become sitting ducks with little room to maneuver in the strait’s narrow channel.
“In today’s context, sending warships or civilian ships into the Strait of Hormuz is tantamount to suicide,” retired French Navy Vice Adm. Pascal Auxerre told The Associated Press in an interview.
He said that reaching a ceasefire agreement with Iran “will change the situation from suicidal to dangerous. At that time, warships can be deployed. And then the escort operations can begin.”
Here’s how the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened to navigation:
The Red Sea is battle-tested
Naval personnel from France, the United States, the United Kingdom and others already have valuable first-hand experience countering missiles and drones in the region. They escorted and protected cargo ships during attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen in the Red Sea.
French frigates use machine guns, artillery and advanced anti-aircraft missiles to fend off Houthi attacks. In 2024, the French frigate Alsace shot down three ballistic missiles while escorting a container ship in the Red Sea. The ship’s commander at the time, Capt. Jerome Henry, told The Associated Press that being the target of a potentially deadly attack was unsettling and exhausting. The naval battle also took its toll on U.S. Navy ships and personnel.
“There were multiple attacks by drones or missiles,” Henry said in an interview. “The crew didn’t get much sleep.”
Michel Olhagare, a retired French lieutenant general and former director of France’s Center for Advanced Military Studies, said “all navies have learned a lot” about cooperating and escorting ships on Red Sea missions, and also drawn on Ukraine’s experience in defending against Russian missile and drone attacks during the Moscow War.
“This will allow us to deploy to the region with considerable expertise and a high level of cooperation, which is extremely important,” said Olhagare, who commanded a French frigate that patrolled the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.
higher risk
Iran is far better equipped militarily than its Houthi proxies in Yemen, who have caused considerable havoc and havoc in the Red Sea. Between November 2023 and January 2025, rebels armed with Iran targeted more than 100 merchant ships with missiles and drones, sank 2 merchant ships, killed 4 sailors, and significantly reduced trade flows.
According to U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency mapping, Iran could reach the entire Strait of Hormuz and its passage using anti-ship cruise missiles developed with Chinese-made weapons. It can also target ships with long-range missiles, drones, fast attack craft and mines used during the Iran-Iraq war. U.S. attacks on Iranian mine-laying vessels during the latest conflict underscore the seriousness of this danger.
Olhagare said that as the war rages on, the Strait of Hormuz is “very, very dangerous” and the risk to shipping is “much greater” than the risk of fighting the Houthis in the Red Sea.
“The means of countering this threat must be more substantial and more effective,” he said. “Until the heat comes down… most of the offensive installations on Iranian land must be eliminated. It will take constant surveillance, patrols, extremely close surveillance and a very high level of intelligence before it can be said that it is possible to allow tankers to pass, even with military escort.”
“That’s not going to happen at all in the near future – not at all.”
Let insurance companies rest assured
Experts say another challenge will be reassuring shipping insurers and companies that sailing in the waters of Hormuz is once again feasible. Insurance premiums for Channel shipping have soared to what France’s transport minister called “insane” levels, causing “big problems” for shippers.
“Maritime traffic is a business. The business has to make money. If the cost of insurance is too high and you can’t make a profit by sailing through a particular area, then you won’t sail through that area. Shipowners don’t operate at a loss,” said Orser, now director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies, a think tank.
Marcus Baker, global head of maritime, freight and logistics at insurance broker and risk consultant Marsh Risk, said insurance rates for tankers looking to pass through Hormuz are many times higher than before the war and close to the levels for ships transporting grain from Ukraine during the ongoing war with Russia.
Baker said a potential merchant navy escort “would be helpful.”
“This has been done in past conflicts so it’s nothing unusual and it will obviously give insurance companies a level of confidence that the vessel will have a higher degree of security,” he said.
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Mae Anderson in New York and Sylvie Corbet in Paris contributed to this report.
