WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday could be a taster of the message Republicans will send to voters in the November elections as they fight for control of the House and Senate.
The president and his party appear vulnerable, with polls showing a majority of Americans distrust the way Trump has run the government in his first year in office. In addition, the Supreme Court ruled last week that he does not have the authority to impose many sweeping tariffs, overturning one of the main levers of his economic and foreign policy.
While Trump is expected to focus on domestic issues, the speech was overshadowed by his escalating threats that he could launch a military strike against Iran over its nuclear program.
Here are a few things to note as Trump attempts to make his case:
Economy and immigration are no longer Trump’s strengths
Trump returned to the White House on promises to lower prices and restore order to U.S. immigration. But on both issues, public sentiment was not in his favor.
Only 39% of U.S. adults approve of his economic leadership and only 38% support him on immigration, according to the latest AP-NORC Public Affairs Center survey. Those lower numbers suggest the country is still worried about the cost of groceries, housing and utilities, a problem exacerbated by Trump’s harsh use of tariffs. They also show how the public has been disturbed by videos of violent clashes with protesters, including two U.S. citizens killed by federal agents.
Trump has yet to unveil a major new economic policy idea since his party passed a massive tax cut bill last year. In recent speeches, he has largely reiterated to the public his tax cuts, plans to lower mortgage rates and a new government website for purchasing prescription drugs.
The Supreme Court on Friday ruled against many of Trump’s far-reaching global tariffs, and the president vowed to use other means to advance import taxes that would only prolong the economic turmoil on trade and prices.
“I think it’s even more important that the speech really focuses on economic issues,” said Republican strategist Alex Conant.
Conant said the tariff ruling and a Commerce Department report released Friday showing U.S. economic growth slowed in the final three months of last year “need to reinforce the president’s economic message.”
Blame it all on Joe Biden
The administration is trying to make the case that despite Trump’s recalibration of global trade and tax cuts, the U.S. economy remains in trouble because of choices made by his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, in 2021 and 2022. But Trump has also tried to take credit for the current positive signs in the economy, such as the recent stock market rally.
“Look at the State of the Union. We’re going to talk about the economy. We inherited a mess,” Trump said at the White House on Wednesday.
Of course, Trump made the same argument in his speech to a joint session of Congress last year, mentioning the name “Biden” 13 times.
Trump’s focus on foreign policy has yet to resonate politically
Despite the president’s “America First” creed, his aggressive approach overseas over the past year has prompted concerns among some of his supporters about whether he should spend more time focusing on voters at home.
Trump, who has made clear his desire to win the Nobel Peace Prize, may use the speech to remind Americans of his attempts to broker peace deals in conflicts around the world.
But in many ways, the president didn’t extend an olive branch. Last year, his administration launched strikes against Yemen, Nigeria and Iran and continued deadly military strikes against suspected drug-trafficking vessels near South America. Trump also shocked the world in January with a surprise raid to capture Venezuela’s then-leader Nicolás Maduro and floated the idea of using force to seize Greenland.
In recent weeks, Trump has stepped up the U.S. military presence in the Middle East while increasing pressure on Iran. But he has yet to make it clear to voters what his actions overseas will mean for their lives.
He may even minimize foreign policy in his State of the Union address, despite his belief that foreign policy has had significant successes.
“While foreign policy will dominate his final year in office, this speech will focus primarily on the economy,” Conant predicted.
Vice President J.D. Vance offered a similar prediction, telling Fox News Channel in a speech Saturday that “you’re going to hear a lot about the importance of bringing jobs back to our country, bringing manufacturing back, and all these great factories that are being built.”
He said Trump would also talk about lowering energy costs.
Trump made the State of the Union his own
The purpose of the State of the Union address used to be to review achievements and seek to unite the country, but it increasingly reflects society’s divisions.
“You’d expect some version of a campaign speech in which the Democrat is the villain, his favorite Republican is the hero, and he’s not just the savior of the country but the savior of the globe,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, a communications professor at the University of Pennsylvania.
Trump supporters may cherish the moment in 2020 when the president reunited military families in a speech. He also awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom to conservative radio host and author Rush Limbaugh, who died of complications from lung cancer in 2021. But that moment turned off Democrats, who viewed Limbaugh as a disruptive figure in the political media.
The reaction in the room could be as important as Trump’s words
Trump is delivering a speech, but the audience sitting on the House floor also plays an important role. When Trump delivered the 2020 State of the Union address, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi then dramatically tore up the speech, drowning out much of what Trump said.
New York House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a letter to colleagues that “it is important to have a strong, committed and dignified Democratic presence in the House,” suggesting some lawmakers may choose not to attend in protest of Trump. But it’s also possible that Democrats could attack Trump the way Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, did in 2025, leading to him being kicked out of the House.
Conant said it would be interesting to see how lawmakers react if Trump lays out a more comprehensive rationale in his speech for why he would use other mechanisms in federal law to continue imposing tariffs.
“I think any House Republican who disapproves of his tariffs will be prominently featured on the airwaves,” he said.
The State of the Union address has a short shelf life
While some presidential remarks endure, much of the “State of the Union” is easily forgotten. For Trump, who is famously unscripted, a stray comment or social media post could easily infringe on his message.
Matt Latimer, a former Republican speechwriter for then-President George W. Bush, noted in an email that the State of the Union address has lost much of its luster because people hear the president speak all the time.
He said the State of the Union address “only makes sense in a moment when the country is going through great trauma — war, attacks, global crises — and the president and Congress want to speak to the country with a (mostly) united voice.” “That’s not what we’re experiencing right now.”
