The Illini are coming off a nice draw in this year’s NCAA Tournament and should be in good position heading into the second weekend. Illinois still needs to win games, but the odds are stacked against them making it to the Sweet 16, with Penn State in the first round and North Carolina or VCU in the second round.
Illinois was hurt by tough draws in 2021 and 2022, when they were forced to play Loyola Chicago and Houston. Loyola Chicago is ranked No. 9 nationally on KenPom as a No. 8 seed, while Houston is ranked No. 4 on KenPom despite being a lower seed. The committee didn’t do the Illini any favors in 2024, either, demoting BYU from a No. 5 seed to a No. 6 seed and placing them in Illinois’ bracket because they couldn’t play on Sunday. But that ultimately didn’t happen, as BYU was defeated by Duquesne and Illinois advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005.
The draw is favorable, but Illinois must avoid the frustrations it experienced in 2021, when Illinois was a No. 1 seed. Here are a few key areas Illinois must focus on to avoid an early exit from the tournament.
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Don’t ignore Payne
It’s hard not to look ahead to the next few rounds, especially with Illinois’ opportunity to go deep, but Illinois can’t overlook this Penn State team from the Ivy League. The Ivy League has had recent success in disrupting high-major programs, and Penn has an opportunity to continue that trend.
The Ivy League is 6-8 in the NCAA Tournament since 2010, with notable wins in 2023 and 2024. In 2024, No. 13 seed Yale defeated No. 4 seed Auburn, which was ranked No. 4 by KenPom entering the tournament. In 2023, No. 15 seed Princeton defeated No. 2 seed Arizona.
Penn is the No. 3 seed in the Ivy League tournament, but neither Yale nor Princeton are the highest-ranked KenPom teams in their respective years. Illinois is the better team in this game, but they have to keep locking down Penn (and only Penn) until they advance to the Round of 32.
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Finish closing the game
Illinois has struggled to win close games this season, which has become a concerning trend. The Illini are 0-4 in overtime and will need to figure out how to end tight games quickly if they want to make any strides.
“People think the game hinges on the last few possessions, but games sometimes get lost in the first half,” Charles Barkley said on truTV during the Texas/NC State First Four game.
Barkley’s comments on live television reflected several of Illinois’ losses this season. In many overtime losses, the Illini put themselves in situations like this by blowing away leads in regulation and allowing their opponents to gain confidence. They held double-digit leads against UCLA and Wisconsin (twice) but couldn’t close out the game.
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Give a good team even a glimmer of hope and they’ll make you pay. Illinois couldn’t adjust to the lead and keep the team within striking distance.
“One of the things we did was when the offense got easy, we relaxed a little bit on defense,” Illinois head coach Brad Underwood said last week.
Simply put, this problem must be corrected if Illinois wants to make strides in March.
The Illini have a good chance to reach the Sweet 16 for the second time in three years as the No. 3 seed. According to FanDuel, Illinois has -390 odds to reach the Sweet 16, +150 to reach the Elite 8, and +380 to reach the Final Four.
