Clashes between the top and bottom teams in the league usually have an ending, but not this time. Away to the Allianz Arena, Mainz held firm and seized their chances, while Bayern gasped to create chances but could not destroy Mainz’s home court. Here are observations from the 2-2 draw:
xG strongly favors Bayern, but that doesn’t tell the whole story
The final expected goals for this game was 4.72 to 1.07, favoring the Bavarians. Let’s understand this. According to statistics, Bayer n should win this game with a score of 5-1. They created chances to push the score higher. Harry Kane had a real off-day, taking eight shots and only converting a late penalty. Serge Gnabry had seven shots on goal. Both of them have a combined expected goals around three. On the one hand, one has to wonder why Bayern did not score six goals.
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On the other hand, danger comes too fitfully. Until about the 20th minute, all the chances Bayern created were one-shots, and Lennart Karl’s long shot was easily caught by the goalkeeper. In the next 15 minutes, Bayern had many high-quality scoring opportunities, and Karl scored first. Then from the 35th minute to the 45th minute, it was nothing again. The same was true before Bayern came alive again in the 45-60 minutes. For about 45 minutes, Bayern were truly outgunned and could barely threaten their goal. To a certain extent, opportunities come and go when the pressure shows and a team is able to create, but extending the clock in a game that creates so little is not enough. Bayern paid the price today. If there was ever a head coach to punish this flaw, it would be the one in the opposing dugout.
Urs Fischer returns to Bundesliga
There are many notorious defensive coaches in Europe, but few are as infamous as Urs Fischer. He joined Union Berlin in the Bundesliga 2 in 2018 and led the team to the top flight of German football, where he stayed for many years and even led them to the UEFA Champions League. According to the xG table, the league should have been in the bottom four that year, but ended up in the top league. But after that huge victory, his story in the Bundesliga came to an abrupt end as the club tried to bring in big-name players who didn’t fit into Fischer’s system and he was sacked just months after qualifying for the Champions League.
More than two years later, Fisher returned to the Bundesliga with Mainz 05. His first game was an away game against Bayern. Could there be a more fitting re-entry into the league for the Swiss coach? Rather than display the divisions and conflict that had erupted under former coach Bo Henriksen in recent weeks and exacerbated their nine-match winless run in the Bundesliga, Mainz showed unity.
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Mainz deployed a very defensive 5-4-1 formation, pressuring and harassing Bayern once they crossed the midfield line. The forward and the inside midfielder form a triangle, blocking the inside passing lane, while the outside midfielder covers the pass to the winger. But once Bayern started to get past their initial press, they were more than willing to drop back and create a nasty low block.
But they also know how to punish the German champions. Mainz’s equalizer on the stroke of half-time was a clever set-piece routine, with the Bavarians rushing towards goal too early, allowing Kaczper Potulski to make a run in behind the defence. When moving towards the goal with the back foot, Bayern’s defender was unable to meet the floating cross with enough momentum like Potulski, and the game was a draw.
Fischer is also clearly aware of Bayern’s weakness for quick passing down the flanks, with forward Benedict Hollebach moving wide to gain some space and provide the ball for runners to attack the space behind. Mainz had no ability to proactively control the ball and would push the ball forward every time they had possession, hoping to win a second ball and allow Hollebach to take possession. Goalkeeper Daniel Butts made 34 long passes in the game. Mainz has 15% of total ball possession. Although xG told a different story, they managed to draw the German champions away from home. Is there a more suitable way for Fischer to return to the Bundesliga? It’s hard to think of a way around this problem.
Poor Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic is having a strange season. After a strong start, his form has dipped in recent weeks (despite scoring against Stuttgart last week) and he has come under criticism from the outside. This is despite being underutilized at left back all season and being forced to serve as backup for injured players. He was given a rare start at right-back against Mainz and performed well in the position in his typically quiet way. His positioning confuses defenders and draws enough attention that Olise is able to isolate himself against his direct opponent on multiple occasions, something the Frenchman exploits to devastating effect time and time again. But Stanisic also played a great role as a creator, delivering multi-inch perfect through passes to Olise throughout the game. He was unlucky that the forwards in front of him failed to contribute more from the chances he created.
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However, when Bayern made three substitutions within an hour of play, Stanisic, as usual, had to move from the right-back position to accommodate someone else (in this case Konrad Laimer) and move to centre-back. It was his lapse in concentration that allowed Lee Jae-sung to get past him and give Mainz a crucial lead in the 67th minute from which Bayern could never recover. Despite the Croatian’s previous performances as a defender, this mistake may become a lasting impression of this game. what a shame.
Defense wins you championships
The old adage “good offense wins you games, but good defense wins you championships” is all too simplistic. But there’s a lot of truth to that. After all, you can’t win games consistently if you concede a lot of goals. That’s not to say Bayern haven’t tried to do this for a while. Bayern has conceded 13 goals in eight games since its defensive performance against Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League at the beginning of November. In the 16 games before this round, they conceded 11 goals in 16 games. No wonder Bayern dropped points in 3 of these 8 games. The biggest defensive infringements were set-piece errors, with Bayern conceding a ridiculous five against Union Berlin, Freiburg and Arsenal. It’s already six o’clock today.
Is it because of fatigue? Or is this a more dangerous problem? Have opponents figured out Bayern’s defense? Does Bayern need to seriously rethink their set-piece defense? Not much can be drawn from the defense in this game. After all, Bayern started with an entirely makeshift backline, with Hiroki Ito playing for the first time in almost a year, Dayot Upamecano and Jonathan Tah having both been rested, Alphonso Davies given half an hour to fully return to fitness, and just one centre-back Stanisic at the end. All in all, this is not a dominant defensive unit and will not push forward. But there’s a worrying trend that Vincent Kompany and his team need to keep a close eye on.
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Miscellaneous observations
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Manuel Neuer scored again today around the 15th minute. He’s certainly going to be closing in on the world record for goalkeeper throw-ins soon, right? Over the years, he’s turned this into a fun habit.
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Joshua Kimmich looked better today after some inconsistent performances of late, but as the game wore on and fatigue probably started to set in, his decision-making got worse and he made multiple poor passes. It seems like everyone but him is taking a break, although it’s clear that rest is good for him too.
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There’s a world of difference in the ball-handling abilities of Alexander Pavlovich and Leon Goretzka, but we already knew that.
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Michael Ollis is an absolutely fantastic football player, but we already knew that.
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Lennart Karl adds an extra dimension to his game. He already showed his ability to make clever off-the-ball runs into the middle against Arsenal against Arsenal, but he showed those instincts again today. He has played in these positions time and time again and should have scored more than his one goal. He even had a couple of effective decoy runs. How did Carr contribute so much to his game in such a short period of time?
