It’s only three games, but BYU is playing its best game since Richie Sanders was injured. Just 12 days after losing to West Virginia, BYU took control of the game against West Virginia with a score of 68-48. The game gets tighter as BYU takes on a well-rested Houston team, which will play its third game in three days.
The game will tip off Thursday at 6:00 Central Time on ESPN2.
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BYU and Houston data
Houston KenPom: 6
Net Rank: 7
Record: 26-5 (14-4 Big 12)
Top wins: Auburn (North), Arkansas (North), Cincinnati (A/H), Texas Tech (home), Baylor (A/H), West Virginia (home), Arizona State (home), TCU (away), UCF (home), BYU (away), Utah State (away), Kansas State (home), Colorado (home), Oklahoma State (away)
Lost: Tennessee (North), Texas Tech (away), Iowa State (away), Arizona State (away), Kansas State (away)
AP Ranking: 5
BYU Kenpohm: 22
Net Rank: 25
Record: 23-10 (9-9 Big 12)
AP Ranking: Not applicable
KenPom Prediction: Houston 78, BYU 72 — Houston 71% chance to win
Point spread: Houston -8.5
Overall score: 147.5
Houston overview and first game review
Kansas State and West Virginia both rank last in KenPom offensive efficiency, while Houston ranks first in the Big 12. Houston’s field goal percentage was in the middle of the pack, but it controlled the turnover battle. They have the lowest turnover rate among Big 12 teams and have the second-highest defensive turnover rate.
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Houston won its first game in Provo on February 7, 77-66. AJ Dybantsa scored 28 points and Rob Wright added 17, but Richie Saunders shot just 1-for-8 from the field and no one else stepped up. BYU led 52-50 with about 12 minutes left in the game before Houston pulled away.
BYU did some good things in that game; they committed just six turnovers, held the Rockets to 7-of-20 three-point shooting, and grabbed 14 offensive rebounds to the Rockets’ 13. Two things really sunk BYU – BYU shot just 16-28 (57%) from the free throw line, and Houston grabbed a key offensive rebound in the final seconds to put the game in a deadlock. Kingston Flemings scored 19 points and fellow freshman Chris Cenac added 16 points as a 6-foot-11 facing four who was a mismatch for BYU. Khadim Mbupu only got 2 rebounds in 16 minutes, Dominic Diomande played 1 minute, Kennard Davis scored 5 points, and Alexey Kostic scored 0 points in 9 minutes.
Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp were named to the Big 12 First Team, while Sharp and starting center Joseph Tugler were named to the All-Defensive Team.
prophecy
BYU will likely need to do at least three of these four things to have a chance to win: 1) get to the free throw line and shoot the free throws (Houston commits more fouls than any team in the Big 12), 2) keep turnovers close, 3) keep the rebounding balance, and 4) AJ Dybantsa needs to score consistently in isolation situations to limit Houston’s turnovers and traps.
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In the first game, BYU scored 2 and 4 points, but there were no fouls and the rebounding at the critical moment was not good enough.
One factor is rest and rust. BYU will play its third game in three days, while Houston will play its first game of the tournament. This BYU team is also different than the last time these teams played a month ago. Richie Saunders is not at BYU, but Khadim Mboup, Dominique Diomande and Alexsej Kostic have larger roles. The first two games are especially noteworthy because they give BYU more length and athleticism than they did before Rich’s injury.
A win for BYU would likely clinch a No. 6 seed in the NCAA tournament and put BYU in contention for a No. 5 seed. This will also continue AJ Dybantsa’s March moment as he looks to leave his mark on college basketball in his only season.
While BYU has struggled defensively over the past three games, I think Houston is the better team and can beat BYU in the second half.
Prediction: Houston 78, BYU 68
