By Omkar Godbole (All times Eastern unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin Rising alongside the U.S. dollar, this is a pattern that has played out several times since President Donald Trump won the 2024 election.
Cryptocurrencies have gained more than 10% since the war in the Middle East broke out over the weekend. The price briefly tested the $74,000 mark yesterday and is up more than 2% in the past 24 hours. The CoinDesk 20 index and major coins such as ethereum (ETH), XRP (XRP) and solana (SOL) rose 2% or more.
For bulls, the rally is notable not only for its size, but also for its context: The rally unfolds against a backdrop of risk aversion in global equity markets and a stronger U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is up more than 1% this week, hitting a high of 99.68 on Wednesday, its highest level in November.
This combination may confuse many market watchers. A stronger U.S. dollar typically puts pressure on U.S. dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin, and historically the two tend to move in opposite directions.
However, this inverse correlation has been challenged repeatedly since Trump returned to the White House pledging support for cryptocurrency policy. BTC and DXY both rose before and after the election, but both fell between March and April 2025. Now both are bouncing back again.
At the same time, demand for Bitcoin in the United States appears to be strengthening, which is a constructive sign for the market. The Coinbase Premium index, which measures the spread between prices on the Nasdaq-listed exchange and offshore giant Binance, rose to 0.0227% today, its highest level since December, according to data source Coinglass. Coinbase’s premium typically indicates strong demand from U.S. investors.
The focus now is whether the cryptocurrency can break out of its historic make-or-break zone around $74,000. A decisive breakout could boost investor confidence and attract more buyers to the market.
Some traders are also keeping an eye on U.S. macroeconomics.
“The U.S. February employment situation report is scheduled for March 6, followed by CPI on March 11 and the next FOMC meeting on March 17-18,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian exchange Giottus.com, said in an email. “All of these are potential volatility catalysts for global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.”
Other macro observers remain cautious, noting that the current calm associated with U.S. commitments to escort and insure tankers may be fragile.
Economist Robin Brooks noted in a blog post: “It only takes one Iranian rocket to throw this fragile balance into serious disruption. The threat of an Iranian rocket hitting paychecks remains, and it’s not something that can be remedied in the short term.” Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptocurrency
- Macro
- March 5, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 (previous value 212K)
- March 5, 8:30 a.m.: US fourth-quarter non-farm productivity forecast (previous value 4.9%)
- March 5, 4:30 p.m.: Fed balance sheet update as of March 4
- income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
- March 5: Rumble (RUM), post-market, -$0.10
Token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- The Uniswap DAO is voting on two related proposals to expand v2 and v3 protocol fees to 8 L2 networks and enable a new tier-based fee system across all v3 pools. Voting ends on March 5.
- The Gnosis DAO is voting to provide a grant to fund ongoing support, infrastructure and maintenance of the Revoke.cash security platform. Voting ends on March 5.
- Unlock
- March 5: Ethena (ENA) unlocks 2.24% of its circulating supply, worth $18.35 million.
- Token issuance
- March 5: WhiteBit Token (WBT) is listed on Kraken.
- March 5: Limitless (LMTS) will be listed on Coinbase.
- March 5: Opinion (OPN) will be listed on Binance, BitMart, BingX, MEXC, etc.
Meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
market trend
- BTC is down 0.13% since 4pm ET on Wednesday to $72,849.18 (24 hours: +2.42%)
- ETH fell 1.08% to $2,135.84 (24 hours: +3.81%)
- CoinDesk 20 down 1.25% to 2,072.03 (24 hours: +2.75%)
- The comprehensive pledge rate of Ethereum CESR increased by 6 basis points to 2.91%
- The BTC financing interest rate on Binance is 0.0026% (annualized 2.8744%)
- DXY fell 0.12% to 98.99
- Gold futures rose 1.06% to $5,174.30
- Silver futures rose 2.28% to $84.51
- The Nikkei 225 index closed up 1.90% at 55,278.06 points
- The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.28% at 25,321.34 points
- The FTSE 100 rose 0.30% to 10,598.92
- Europe’s Stoxx 50 rose 0.13% to 5,878.37
- The Dow closed 0.49% higher on Wednesday at 48,739.41 points
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.78% at 6,869.50
- The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 1.29% at 22,807.48 points
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.47% at 33,942.90
- The S&P 40 Latin America Index closed up 2.26% at 3,619.17 points
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate rose 3 basis points to 4.08%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures were unchanged at 6,870.50
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures unchanged at 25,113.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.18% to 48,710.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- Bitcoin dominance: 59.78% (0.9%)
- Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02938 (0.38%)
- Computing power (seven-day moving average): 999 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $32.09
- Total fee: 3.03 BTC / $215,909
- CME Futures Open Interest: 111,485 BTC
- BTC in gold: 14.1 ounces.
- Bitcoin and gold market capitalization: 4.88%
technical analysis
- This chart from Coinglass shows daily open interest for zcash (ZEC) futures.
- Open interest refers to the number of active futures contracts at any given time.
- The total number of ZECs has increased to nearly 1.5 million, breaking the downward trend line.
- The breakout signals renewed interest in ZEC futures and greater volatility ahead.
crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Wednesday at $208.93 (+14.57%) and closed at $209.14 pre-market, +0.10%
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $24.34 (+17.70%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): Closed at $9.29 (+7.27%), –0.22% Closed at $9.27
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $16.53 (+8.11%), +0.24% at $16.57
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $15.84 (+3.53%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $10.66 (+7.79%), –0.75% at $10.58
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $12.16 (+12.28%), unchanged pre-market
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): Closed at $41.20 (+8.76%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Closed at $105.27 (+5.66%), unchanged pre-market
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $36.86 (+11.29%), –0.49% at $36.68
Cryptocurrency Treasury Corporation
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $146.44 (+10.37%), –0.30% at $146.00
- Sharplink (SBET): Closed at $8.13 (+11.98%), –1.60% at $8.00
- Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $1.08 (+37.58%), +1.85% at $1.10
- Lite Strategy (LITS): Closed at $1.22 (+6.09%)
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): Closed at $9.62 (+15.49%), +0.73% at $9.69
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETF
- Net daily traffic: $461.9 million
- Cumulative net flow: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings are approximately 1.29 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Net daily traffic: $169.4 million
- Cumulative net flow: $11.83 billion
- The total amount of ETH held is approximately 5.79 million.
Source: Farside Investors
