XRP price has fallen by approximately 1.1% in the past 24 hours and is still down 8.8% in the past 30 days. This makes it one of the weakest performing cryptocurrencies in the top ten, with only Dogecoin posting a bigger monthly drop.
Even so, a new shift in whale behavior coincided with repeated bullish signals. If both hold true, this could be the first real attempt to reverse the downward trend.
From November 4th to December 31st, XRP price action showed weakness. XRP made lower lows during this period, but the RSI (relative strength index), a measure of momentum, made higher lows. This is a bullish divergence and indicates that sellers are losing power. This form of divergence usually results in a downtrend reversal.
The same pattern occurred between November 4 and December 1 and triggered a 12% rally. That rally failed because the structure was not backed by whale wallets.
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This time, disagreements arise again, but the surrounding circumstances appear different.
The group of whales played a key role when the last diversion attempt failed. During the early December rally (December 1-December 3), two major groups sold strongly.
Between November 30 and December 4, wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP reduced their holdings from 4.35 billion XRP to 3.97 billion XRP. During this period, wallets holding more than 1 billion XRP decreased from 25.34 billion XRP to 25.16 billion XRP. This selling pressure may have hindered the trend.
This time, the reaction was reversed.
Over the past 24 hours, XRP wallets with over 1 billion have increased dramatically from 25.47 billion to 27.47 billion. This represents a significant increase of approximately 2 billion XRP. At current prices, it is worth approximately $3.6 billion.
Although smaller whales (1 million to 10 million whales) have now given up their collections, giant whales are still far ahead.
The shift was a key difference compared to November’s attempt. When RSI divergence is forming, whales are buying, not selling. If their positioning remains the same, the XRP price structure will eventually be supported by momentum and supply.
XRP price still needs to confirm what the indicators are suggesting. The first sign of a successful reversal was the 12-hour close significantly above $1.92.
This level became resistance on December 22 and rejected all attempts thereafter. If XRP does break above $1.92, the next test will be at $2.02. Recovering this level shifts focus to $2.17 to $2.21, the area that halted the early-December rally.
