Tensions are rising on Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan in Central Asia, with the Tajik government reporting a number of armed incursions this month, straining its fragile relationship with Afghanistan’s Taliban leadership.
Officials in Dushanbe and Beijing said more than a dozen people were killed in what Tajik authorities described as “terrorist” attacks and resulting clashes with Tajik troops. Victims included Chinese nationals working in remote areas of the mountainous regions of the former Soviet Union.
At least five people, including “three terrorists,” were killed in Tajikistan’s Shamsiddin Shohin district in the latest fighting this week, officials said.
Tajikistan has long opposed the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan, with which it shares a largely insecure 1,340-kilometer (830-mile) border.
Analysts say that despite cautious diplomatic engagement between the two countries to adapt to new regional realities, recent frequent border clashes threaten to undermine the Taliban’s credibility and raise questions about its ability to enforce order and security.
Here’s everything we know about the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border conflict and its significance:
The Taliban flag flies on a bridge over the Panj River on the border with Afghanistan and Tajikistan, seen from the Darvoz region of Tajikistan [File: Amir Isaev/AFP]
What happened on the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan?
The border stretches along the Panj River through the remote mountainous terrain of southern Tajikistan and northeastern Afghanistan.
Tajikistan’s National Security Council said in a statement on Thursday that “three members of a terrorist organization” entered Tajik territory on Tuesday. The men were discovered the next morning and exchanged fire with Tajik border guards, the committee added. Five people, including three intruders, were allegedly killed.
Tajik officials did not name the militants or specify which group they belonged to. However, officials said they seized three M-16 rifles, a Kalashnikov assault rifle, three foreign-made pistols with silencers, 10 grenades, a night-vision goggle and explosives.
Dushanbe said this was the third attack from Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province in the past month that resulted in deaths in the province.
Tajik officials said on Thursday that the attacks “prove that the Tajik government has repeatedly shown gross irresponsibility and non-commitment in fulfilling its international obligations and ensuring security… and its consistent commitment to combating members of terrorist organizations”.
The Tajik statement called on the Taliban to “apologize to the people of Tajikistan and take effective measures to ensure the security of their shared borders.”
Tajikistan did not say what the motive was for the attack, but it appeared to target Chinese companies and nationals working in the region.
Workers of Tajikistan-Chinese joint mining company Talko Gold speak in front of posters of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon at the Saritag antimony mine in western Tajikistan [File: AFP]
How is China involved in all this?
Beijing is Tajikistan’s largest creditor and one of its most influential economic partners, with a strong stake in infrastructure, mining and other projects in the border areas.
China and Tajikistan also share a 477-kilometer (296-mile) border that runs through the high-altitude Pamir Mountains in eastern Tajikistan and borders China’s Xinjiang region.
The last week of November saw two attacks targeting Chinese companies and citizens. On November 26, a drone equipped with an explosive device attacked a compound of Shohin SM, a private Chinese gold mining company, in the remote Khatlon area on the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan, killing three Chinese citizens.
In a second attack on November 30, a group of gunmen opened fire on workers employed by the state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation in Tajikistan’s Darvoz region, killing at least two people.
Tajik officials said the attacks originated in villages in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province, but did not disclose any links or motives behind the attacks.
Chinese citizens have also been attacked in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province and along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
The Chinese Embassy in Dushanbe recommended that Chinese companies and personnel evacuate border areas. Chinese officials demanded that “Tajikistan take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of Chinese companies and citizens in Tajikistan.”
Who is carrying out these attacks?
While the attackers have not yet been identified, analysts and observers believe the attacks bear the hallmarks of the Islamic State’s (ISIS) Khorasan Provincial Affiliate (ISKP), which they say aims to discredit Afghan Taliban leaders.
“ISKP attacks foreigners in Afghanistan and has made attacking foreigners in Afghanistan a key pillar of its strategy,” said Ibrahim Bays, a Kabul-based analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank.
“The aim is to undermine the image of the Taliban as a security provider with whom regional governments should engage,” Bayes told Al Jazeera.
On August 14, 2024, Taliban members participated in a rally in the Afghan capital to commemorate the third anniversary of the Taliban’s occupation of Kabul. [Sayed Hassib/Reuters]
How did the Taliban respond to these attacks?
Kabul expressed “deep condolences” for the murder of the Chinese worker on November 28.
The Taliban blamed the violence on an unnamed armed group, which it said “seeks to create chaos and instability in the region and sow distrust among countries” and assured Tajikistan of its full cooperation.
After this week’s clashes, Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani said Kabul remained committed to the 2020 Doha accord, a deal with the United States for a phased withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan in exchange for a Taliban pledge to prevent Afghanistan from being used as a base to attack other countries.
Speaking at a graduation ceremony for police cadets at the National Police Academy in Kabul on Thursday, Haqqani said Afghanistan posed no threat to other countries and the door for dialogue remained open.
“We hope to resolve problems, mistrust or misunderstandings through dialogue. We have passed the test of confrontation. Our resources may be weak, but our faith and will are strong,” he said, adding that the security situation had improved and Taliban officials could now travel across the country without weapons.
The Taliban insists there are no “terrorist groups” operating in Afghanistan. However, the United Nations Sanctions Monitoring Committee noted in a recent report the existence of multiple armed groups, including ISKP, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Al Qaeda, Turkestan Islamic Party, Ansarullah Congress and Pakistan Mujahideen.
Jamaat Ansarullah is a Tajik group with ties to the al-Qaeda-aligned network, mainly active in northern Afghanistan near the Tajik border.
Afghans driving along the border road as seen from the Darvoz region of Tajikistan [File: Amir Isaev/AFP]
What is the relationship between Tajikistan and the Taliban?
For decades, relations between Tajikistan and the Taliban have been defined by deep ideological hostility and ethnic mistrust, with Dushanbe being one of the Taliban’s fiercest critics in Central Asia.
In the 1990s, Tajikistan formed an alliance with the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance led by Afghan military commander and former Defense Minister Ahmed Shah Massoud.
After the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, Tajikistan became the only country among its neighbors to refuse to formally recognize the new government.
However, pragmatic diplomatic engagement quietly began around 2023, driven by economic needs and shared security concerns about ISKP’s existence. To speed up the restoration of relations, a high-level delegation from Tajikistan visited Kabul in November, the first since the Taliban returned to power.
But the two governments continue to accuse each other of harboring “terrorists”, a major thorn in their relations, and drug smuggling is taking place across their borders.
Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan has long been a major trafficking route for Afghan heroin and methamphetamine into Central Asia, Russia and Europe, taking advantage of the region’s rugged terrain and weak security.
“The frequency continues to increase [of the clashes] is new, interesting, and raises the point of whether we might be seeing new threats emerging,” Bayes said.
Badakhshan province, which Tajik authorities say is the site of attacks targeting Chinese citizens, presents a complex security situation for the Taliban, who have struggled to contain threats from armed opposition groups, Bashis added.
He said the security issue was compounded by a Taliban crackdown on poppy cultivation in the province. This policy of the Taliban was resisted by farmers in the north. This is largely because Badakshan’s topography means poppy is the only viable cash crop.
Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Mutaji called his Tajik counterpart earlier this month, expressing regret for the attack on Chinese citizens and saying that the Afghan government is ready to strengthen cooperation between the border defense forces of the two countries. [Anushree Fadnavis/Reuters]
What is the relationship between the Taliban and other neighboring countries?
Since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in 2021, some of its neighbors have maintained pragmatic and transactional relations, while others have not.
Relations with previous patron Pakistan have changed particularly worsening. Islamabad accuses Kabul of harboring fighters from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban. In November, when Pakistan Launch air strikes In Kabul, Khost and other provinces, the Taliban carried out retaliatory attacks on border posts.
Dozens of people died before a ceasefire brokered by Qatar and Türkiye. However, the two sides have been at war ever since, accusing each other of breaking the fragile truce.
The Taliban denies Islamabad’s accusations and blames Pakistan’s “own security failures”.
Meanwhile, the Taliban are now investing develop new relationships With Pakistan’s main rival India, the delegation visited Indian cities for trade and security discussions. New Delhi was an early member of the anti-Taliban alliance. However, this approach has changed as relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have soured.
