UFC Houston preview, main and co-main event predictions for ‘Strickland vs. Hernandez’

Former UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland will try to stay fresh in his 185-pound title fight when he collides with top-5 contender Anthony Hernandez on Saturday’s UFC Houston card. Watch tonight (February 21, 2026) on Paramount+ inside Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.

With a potential title shot on the line, this fight could change the 185-pound landscape.

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Unfortunately, Strickland’s never-ending antics cast a pall over this weekend’s fight in the Lone Star State, which features Jeff Neal vs. Uros Medic in the welterweight co-main event. I don’t want to waste time complaining about the silliness of “Tarzan,” so let’s just focus on the details of the combat.

Until then, be sure to check out all the UFC Houston odds and betting lines here. For details on the other major card matchups at UFC Houston, click here.

185 pounds: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez

Sean “Tarzan” Strickland
Record: 29-7 |Age: 34 | betting lines: +225
victory: December 14, 11 times KO/TKO, 4 times SUB loss: 2 times KO/TKO, 0 times SUB, 5 times DEC
high: 6’1” | Reach: 76” | attitude: Orthodox Church
Major attacks every minute: 5.95 | Amazing accuracy: 42%
hits absorbed per minute: 4.57 | offensive defense: 60%
Average number of kills:0.73 (64% accuracy) | Knock down defense: 76%
Current ranking: No. 3 | final battle: Lost to Dricus du Plessis via unanimous decision

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Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez
Record: 15-2, 1 NC |Age: 32 | betting lines:-275
victory: 3 KO/TKO, 8 SUB, 3 DEC | loss: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
high: 6’0” | Reach: 75” | attitude: Orthodox Church
Major attacks every minute: 4.59 | Amazing accuracy: 62%
hits absorbed per minute: 2.53 | offensive defense: 49%
Average number of kills:6.46 (48% accuracy) | Knock down defense:68%
Current ranking: No. 4 | final battle: Submission victory over Roman Dolizer

Sean Strickland is just 4-4 over his last eight games, which is far from elite, but you could also argue that he’s been battling the absolute best in the division over the last four years. “Tarzan” didn’t look good in his recent loss to Dericus du Plessis, and stylistically it almost looked like a throwback. It’s also worth pointing out that Strickland turns 35 next week and has already started 36 career games, so his mileage may be catching up with him. Don’t expect to see a radically different version of “Tarzan” on fight night, we’ll likely get some of the usual tricks: step forward, jab, lunge, defend takedown, step forward, jab, lunge, rinse and repeat. The trajectory of this fight will depend entirely on whether he can maintain his defensive wrestling against an opponent who averages over six takedowns per 15 minutes of fight.

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“I’ve never really done a lot of fighting, especially later in my career, so this was more of a test that I wanted,” Strickland recently told UFC.com. “This guy’s on an eight-fight win streak, so what better name can you beat? I’ve wrestled a lot more than I’ve wrestled in camp, so really, just having the gas tank to wrestle five rounds is fine.”

Strickland has never shown any cardio issues in his UFC career, even during five rounds.

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“Typically, he’s going to take down guys and knock them out, but I’m not a knockout guy, so it should be fun,” Strickland added. “I think I’m going to get the better of him. I think we’re going to grapple. I’m not the hardest guy to knock out, I just don’t care if I get knocked down. I think it’s going to be a five-round grudge match. I’m going to get the better of him and I’m going to TKO him in the fourth or fifth round.”

Anthony Hernandez has looked unstoppable over the past five years, and he’s lucky to have made it this far after stumbling out of the gate. Not only did “Fluffy” fail a drug test following his win on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018, but he also lost two of his first three fights inside the Octagon – both of which ended in losses. I’m not sure what has changed between then and now, but Hernandez is one of the best middleweights in the world and he can get a shot at the 185-pound title with a win over Strickland; despite his shortcomings, he could be a tough puzzle to solve inside the Octagon. Plus, Hernandez isn’t a striker with enough power and accuracy to keep Strickland honest, so it all comes down to whether “Shaggy” can swamp Strickland in the later rounds.

“I think he’s going to try to wrestle me because things didn’t go well for Du Plessis and his coach talked about that,” Hernandez said at UFC Houston media day. “I think he’s probably going to try to prove he’s a better MMA fighter, but I’m ready for anything, so I’m excited. In my mind, I feel like a monster. You call my name and if you’re in front of me, I’m going to come after you. So, that’s it. It’s a business. I’m happy that the former champion thinks he can beat me, so I want to prove him wrong.”

This may be the only way to hold the Battle of Konzart later this year.

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“I’m not trying to knock him out quick in the first round,” Hernandez told the New York Post in a separate interview. “I don’t mind torturing a motherfucker for a good 25 minutes. I really enjoy hurting people, as bad as it sounds. It’s just therapy for me. So I don’t know, am I going to come in, and if I can get the job done, great. If not, then I’m going to fucking enjoy it.”

Strickland admitted he struggled to lose weight and suffered from “double vision” during long sauna sessions. Regardless, I don’t have high expectations for the entertainment value of this fight, but that has more to do with their respective styles than their actual talents. I wouldn’t be surprised if an ugly split decision leaves everyone arguing.

prophecy: Hernandez def. Strickland’s decision

170 pounds: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic

Jeff “Iron Hands” Neal
Record: 16-7 |Age: 35 | betting lines:-220
victory: 10 times KO/TKO, 2 times SUB, 4 DEC | loss: 2 times KO/TKO, 2 times SUB, 3 times DEC
high:5’11” | Reach: 75″ | attitude: left handed
Major attacks every minute: 5.05 | Amazing accuracy: 51%
hits absorbed per minute: 5.48 | offensive defense: 57%
Average number of kills:0.54 (45% accuracy) | Knock down defense:87%
Current ranking: No. 12 | final battle: Lost to Carlos Prates by knockout

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Urus “Doctor” Military Physician
Record: 12-3 | Age: 32 | betting lines: +180
victory: 10 times KO/TKO, 2 times SUB, 0 DEC | loss: 1 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 0 DEC
high: 6’1” | Reach: 71” | attitude: left handed
Major attacks every minute: 5.53 | Amazing accuracy: 60%
hits absorbed per minute: 3.46 | offensive defense: 56%
Average number of kills:0.35 (50% accuracy) | Knock down defense: 55%
Current ranking: Unranked | final battle: Technical knockout victory over Muslim Salikhov

Geoff Neal came to the UFC via Dana White’s Contender Series in the summer of 2017, and early in his Octagon career he looked like a future title contender, defeating Belal Muhammad and defeating the likes of Mike Perry and Niko Price. Unfortunately, a well-documented battle with drug addiction cost him five years at the top of his game, and this is reflected in his record, as “Handz of Steel” has gone just 3-5 in his last eight fights and suffered an upset loss to Carlos Prates. Neal is a well-rounded fighter with good defensive wrestling and takedown abilities, although he sometimes struggles to put it all together and seems content to play the impatient headhunter. Now that he’s touted himself as rebuilt and refocused, we’ll find out what’s left in his tank at age 35, although it’s worth noting that he lost to the Plates last August — not exactly ancient history.

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“He’s good. He’s 6-3, finishing all the fights, and he’s just reckless,” Neal said of Medic at UFC Houston media day. “He’s make or die. Tough opponent, dangerous opponent. If I sleep on him, like, I’m going to sleep on him. I’m not going to sleep on him, I take him very seriously, I’ve been training extra hard. 100 percent ready for this fight. Hopefully it will show in the cage, but I’m 100 percent in better shape. That’s undeniable. Whether it translates to fight night or not, we’ll know. I believe I’m going to go out there and I’m going to show you all ‘all this crap.’ [version of] Jeff. “

Uros Medic is also a product of Dana White’s “Contender Series,” but he started the UFC in 2020, a few years after Neal. Medic was originally a super lightweight, but performed better at 170 pounds and added more weight to his already powerful punches. That gave “Doc” (whose last name was Army Medic and whose nickname was Doc, tee-hee) some post-fight performance bonuses and a reputation as one of the most dangerous fighters in the 170-pound division, win or lose. Medic has yet to see a scorecard from 15 career games, and I doubt he’ll start there, especially against a forward with Neal’s strength. This might be a good time to flip the script and break out some wrestling; but who are we kidding? Just let them explode, man. This may not be a great strategy for long-term health, but fighters who keep fans happy will always have a job.

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“Everybody knows the way I fight, I’m here to kill or die. I thought I was going to kill this guy,” Medici told reporters at UFC Houston media day. “I don’t know exactly what the game plan is for the main event, but I think I’m going to steal the show. I think with my fighting style, I’m really not thinking about ‘Oh, I’ve got to finish.'” It’s just a fighting style and I think the UFC recognized that early on, and that’s why I got the opportunity when I got it – and that’s why I got another chance this Saturday. I put on a show and people came to the show and I think it speaks for itself. “

A few years ago I would have chosen Neil without hesitation. Unfortunately, I’m not too confident about his career turnaround. This makes the fight like a coin toss, whoever lands first wins. Considering Medic’s fearless offense and reckless abandon, I think he caught the overly patient Neal early in the game.

prophecy: Medic Defense. Neil is eliminated

To learn more about the rest of the UFC Houston main card, click here.

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