For the second time this MLB offseason, a surprise team emerged late in the release process to serve as the landing spot for a Japanese star who jumped ship from the NPB. On Thursday, the day before his posting window was set to expire, the Houston Astros reportedly agreed to sign 27-year-old right-hander Tatsuya Imai to a deal that guarantees him $54 million over three years but is structured in a way that gives him a lot of flexibility and upside to make bigger money in the short term, with a maximum value of $63 million and an opt-out after each season.
Just before Christmas, the rebuilding Chicago White Sox shocked the industry by signing one of the greatest hitters in Japanese history, standout slugger Munetaka Murakami. Chicago feels like an unlikely destination given its position in the competitive window and the fact that Murakami’s market is expected to exceed what the White Sox are willing to pursue. Ultimately, however, Murakami’s two-year, $34 million contract reflected the industry’s hesitancy to invest in him due to his wobbly tendencies and defensive limitations.
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In hindsight, the game made a lot of sense given the circumstances, as a short-term deal gave Murakami a chance to prove himself with a club with far less risk he might have faced on a contender roster. If Murakami performs well, he could become a free agent again at age 28 and seek a more lucrative long-term contract once he proves himself in MLB.
As it turns out, a similar situation occurred after Imai selected Houston: initial surprise, followed by a gradual realization that the Astros might be a perfect fit for the pitcher, especially under the terms of the reported contract.
At first, Imai raised some eyebrows by picking the Astros. Houston has rarely been mentioned in reports as a possible landing spot for him, largely based on the assumption that despite a need for starting pitching following the expected departure of longtime ace Flamber Valdez, the Astros are unlikely to replace Valdez by spending heavily on another free agent.
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A more cost-conscious strategy seemed to be working when the Astros acquired a cheap and controllable starter in Mike Burrows from Pittsburgh in a trade, a slick move that bolstered Houston’s starting lineup but still left a hole in the depth chart. Even so, Houston’s flexibility to add another impact department seems limited, given the organization’s long-standing tendency to avoid going over the luxury tax line and a projected payroll already well over $200 million; a more modest addition via trade or free agency would seem more reasonable.
The Astros also had never signed a player directly from the NPB, entering the winter as one of only three teams to do so, along with the Marlins and Rockies. That said, some notable Japanese players have played in Houston, from Ichi Matsui to Nori Aoki and, most recently, Yuuki Kikuchi. The club has also been banned from selling its stadium naming rights to Japanese industrial manufacturing group Daikin, perhaps signaling an interest in expanding its brand globally. But considering we’ve never seen Houston sign a player through the release system, it seems far-fetched to link the Astros to Imai as opposed to teams like the Cubs, Mets, Yankees and even the Orioles, which have a history of signing large numbers of Japanese players.
However, remove the club’s history and salary preferences, and the Astros did It would be logical for Imai to qualify as a contending team in dire need of an impact starting pitcher, especially in a trade of this magnitude. If Imai’s market swells to nine figures with a longer tenure, it’s hard to imagine the Astros getting involved. But it turns out the market fell for Hewson as some expected suitors like the Yankees and Mets reportedly weren’t involved, opening the door for the Astros to swoop in and work out a contract that would work out for both parties.
While Imai and his agent, Scott Boras, were reportedly unable to secure the nine-figure contract they originally sought, the deal could result in a bigger payday. If Imai opts out after 2026 and 2027, he could re-enter the market at age 28 or 29 if he immediately excels and becomes an impact major league starter. There are also highly achievable escalators based on innings pitched that could increase the contract’s guaranteed money to $63 million ($3 million per year), so there are financial benefits to the existing deal as well.
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Opting out was crucial and likely played a big role in the Astros getting the deal done. Imai reportedly rejected AAV’s lower long-term offer in favor of the contract. That would seem to indicate that the 27-year-old is confident of getting a bigger payday in a year or two, which on the surface isn’t a particularly favorable outcome for the Astros.
But that’s a key difference between Murakami’s and Imai’s deals. If Murakami does perform well right away, Chicago is unlikely to keep him when he hits free agency again in two years. What’s more, it’s hard to imagine the White Sox being competitive over the next two seasons, meaning the club likely won’t benefit from Murakami’s performance to change their position in the standings.
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The math works differently in Houston. The Astros’ No. 1 goal is to preserve their long-term competitive window for as long as possible. The 2025 season was a step backwards for the team, which missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Meanwhile, the division rival Mariners took a big step forward and now look like the team to beat on paper. But despite the dramatic changes to Houston’s roster in recent years, there’s still enough talent to build a strong club around anchors Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, with Brown now at the top of the rotation.
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So while it’s true that if Imai excels right away, he could opt out for a bigger deal — and likely somewhere else if Houston continues to abhor long-term contracts for pitchers — if the Japanese righty excels in 2026, it could be the difference between Houston returning in October and falling out in the competitive American League. Even if such a trade is good for the player, the benefits are worth pursuing for a team like Houston.
Imai’s signing could mark the end of a pitching hunt this winter for Houston, which also acquired Burrows and signed Nate Pearson and Ryan Weis to major league deals. But that’s not to say general manager Dana Brown is done with business. Imai’s $18 million AAV puts Houston’s projected salary just below the first luxury tax line, according to FanGraphs. If the goal is to stay under $244 million, that leaves little wiggle room for another major addition, but another veteran deal could be justified, especially considering the return of Carlos Correa last summer complicates a crowded group of position players.
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With Correa occupying third base alongside shortstop Jeremy Pena and the club no longer willing to play Altuve regularly at second base (preferring him in left field or DH), there aren’t enough spots in the lineup for Altuve, Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes and Yordan Alvarez to serve as regular hitters. If Alvarez and Altuve essentially alternate between DH and left field, that leaves Walker and Paredes at first base. This makes Houston an interesting team to monitor the trade market in the coming weeks.
