When you’re watching Sunday’s big game between the Seahawks and Patriots, keep your eyes glued to your TV during the second quarter. Historically, this inning is the strongest indicator of who wins.
In the previous 59 games, winning teams averaged 2.7 more points per game in the first quarter, 2.5 more points per game in the third quarter, and 3.6 more points per game in the fourth quarter. But the biggest gap appeared in the second round. The champion team averaged 9.1 points per game, while the runner-up only scored 4.4 points. The gap was quite large, reaching 4.7 points.
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Interestingly, in terms of regular season scoring, both teams averaged 8.3 points in the second quarter for the eventual champion and 8.1 for the eventual runner-up.
That’s why the second one is so fascinating. Only 19 percent of the runner-up’s points in the Super Bowl went beyond the second quarter of the regular season. Relatively speaking, this is their weakest lineup, as they have been outscored by the eventual winner 66% of the time, with the margin reaching 9.5 points in those games.
This year’s regular season, the Seahawks’ highest scoring rack is second (8.0 points). So did the Patriots (10.2). If history is any guide, at least one of these teams will fail within 15 minutes of halftime.
This article originally appeared in Touchdown: Super Bowl LX: Why the second quarter is often the championship difference-maker
