MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — U.S.-backed airstrikes and a recently expanded ground operation have changed the momentum of Somalia’s long war against the al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab militant group, the government says, and it touts successes in the battle, such as regaining territory from the extremists and targeting the group’s leadership and bomb-making network.
The shift comes at a critical time: Nearly two decades after Al-Shabaab emerged as the main rebel force, African Union peacekeeping forces are gradually withdrawing and Somalia is assuming greater responsibility for its own security.
Here’s what’s changed in the conflict and what’s still uncertain.
How Somalia got here
Al-Shabaab emerged in the mid-2000s as the armed wing of the now-banned Islamic Courts Union alliance and later allied with Al Qaeda. At its height, it controlled much of southern and central Somalia, including parts of the country’s capital, Mogadishu.
African Union forces drove al-Shabaab out of Mogadishu in 2011, but the group adapted and resumed guerrilla warfare, suicide bombings and targeted assassinations. It continues to raise millions of dollars each year through taxation and extortion, according to U.N. monitors.
The United States has been conducting air strikes in Somalia for more than a decade. In 2020, President Donald Trump ordered the withdrawal of most U.S. troops during his first term. In 2022, President Joe Biden approved the redeployment of U.S. troops to Somalia, restoring a more permanent advisory and counterterrorism presence.
Reclaim territory from al-Shabaab
Authorities said Somali forces had recaptured the Lower Shabelle, Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions and parts of Jubaland, which had been controlled by militants for years.
Somali Defense Minister Omar Ali Abdi told The Associated Press that a number of locations in the Lower Shabelle region, including Jilib Marka, Jandeshe and Danane, which have long been al-Shabab strongholds, have fallen into the hands of the military.
The minister also mentioned progress in the central area of Hiran, including Taidan and Yasuman, as well as operations near the Ali Gadoud mosque in Central Shabelle. He said a joint operation between Darawish regional forces and Somalia’s U.S.-trained Danab special forces killed dozens of militants and seized vehicles in the Kuda area of Jubaland.
Al-Shabaab has not confirmed the reported losses. Access to many disputed areas is restricted, making independent verification difficult.
America’s role
The United States coordinated with the federal government of Somalia to conduct airstrikes in areas under the jurisdiction of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), targeting al-Shabaab leaders, training grounds, and weapons facilities.
State Minister Abdi said recent air operations destroyed facilities used to manufacture improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and neutralized explosive-laden vehicles before deployment. He said Somali intelligence services provide verified targeting information.
AFRICOM said it conducts precision strikes and assesses the risk of harm to civilians before carrying them out. U.S. airstrikes in Somalia have drawn criticism from human rights groups over the past few years for causing civilian casualties. AFRICOM has acknowledged some cases and said it is investigating the allegations.
How airpower is changing the battlefield
Abdullahi Ahmed Ali, a security analyst in Mogadishu, said the expansion of air surveillance and strike capabilities changed what had been a close fight.
He said that in the early stages, both government forces and al-Shabab had similar types of ground weapons. What the government lacks is sustained air power and constant surveillance.
He said expanded drone coverage allowed troops to identify al-Shabaab underground hideouts and previously inaccessible supply routes. Once these locations are targeted from the air, it will be easier for government forces to advance into these areas.
Somali officials say drones can now provide early warning of militant activity near Mogadishu, where al-Shabab continues to carry out bombings despite heightened security.
The timing of the new offensive is also important because it coincides with the transition of African Union forces, known as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, which are gradually reducing their footprint in the country as Somali forces gain greater control.
Analysts say this makes air support and intelligence coordination with international partners even more important.
At the same time, Somalia faces multiple pressures, including climate-related drought, political tensions between federal and regional authorities, and funding shortfalls affecting security and humanitarian operations.
Some security experts warn that territory captured by al-Shabaab must be consolidated through governance and services. In previous offensives, al-Shabab has managed to return to areas after government forces retreated or failed to maintain a presence.
The next step in the hard struggle
Somali authorities say thousands of al-Shabab fighters have been killed since the campaign intensified, including dozens killed in recent operations in the coastal town of Kuda and elsewhere. These figures cannot be independently verified.
Experts warn that territorial control in Somalia remains unstable, especially in rural areas. While government forces appear to have expanded their presence in several areas, Al-Shabaab is still able to reach much of central and southern Somalia.
Somali officials said operations would continue to be coordinated with international partners and combine ground offensives, intelligence gathering and reconstruction efforts in recaptured towns.
Abdi said the government plans to rebuild homes and provide aid in newly captured areas to prevent al-Shabab from regaining control. Still, despite the government’s reported gains, al-Shabaab remains one of Africa’s most dynamic militant groups and its biggest threat.
This means governments now need to translate gains on the ground into lasting stability. This will depend on Somalia’s ability to protect and govern its territory as international peacekeeping forces scale back their role.
