California Democratic Senator Adam Schiff has proposed legislation to ban prediction market contracts related to terrorism, war, assassination and death, directly challenging the market regulator CFTC’s shift to deregulate event trading.
The bill, known as the “Death Bet Act,” would strip the agency of discretion over whether to allow such contracts and write an explicit ban into law, putting Schiff on a collision course with the deregulatory agenda of Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig.
Schiff, a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is poised to push the issue through legislation during the agency’s new rulemaking process.
Under the Commodity Exchange Act, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has the power to block contracts related to war, terrorism or assassination if it determines they are contrary to the public interest. But enforcement depends on regulators’ judgment, meaning the scope of protections can change as agency leadership changes.
Schiff’s bill would eliminate that flexibility. It would prohibit any exchange registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission from listing contracts that deal with, involve or refer to terrorism, assassination, war or the death of an individual. The prohibition also applies to contracts that may be “construed as being closely connected with a person’s death”, which is a very broad standard.
“Betting on war and death creates an environment where insiders can profit from classified information, our national security is compromised, and violence is encouraged,” Schiff said in a statement. “There is no reason to gamble with lives, and there is no reason to reap the public benefit through such a market.”
Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA) will introduce companion legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a release from Schiff’s office.
The proposal comes as the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rewrites its approach to regulating prediction markets under Selig.
In February, the agency withdrew a 2024 proposal that would have broadly banned political prediction markets, with Selig criticizing previous efforts as overly regulatory.
