Republican U.S. Army veteran Matt Van Epps won a special election for Congress in Tennessee’s 7th District, fending off a closely contested challenge from Democrat Aftyn Behn and adding another vote to the Republican House’s slim majority.
Both NBC News and CNN predict that Van Epps will win the election by 8:30 pm on December 2.
Van Epps outraised Behn. His success was fueled by early support from President Donald Trump, more than $6 million in outside spending by a political action committee and grassroots support from the Republican National Committee.
Although Bain didn’t win, her grassroots efforts narrowed the margin in the district and proved the success of national Democrats’ new strategy for targeting the South.
It’s the final showdown in 2025, and Democrats hope a blue victory will serve as a bellwether for next year’s midterm elections. Republicans hope to stem the tide and solidify their dwindling House majority.
Today, voters chose the candidate to succeed U.S. Rep. Mark Green, who retired earlier this year to seek work in the private sector.
This is Tennessee’s first special congressional election in more than four decades.
Live updates: Follow the vote count in Tennessee’s special congressional election
Tennessee special election results
a perfect storm
Many elections in Tennessee’s heavily Republican districts are decided in primaries, and voters widely expect that to be the case here as well.
But what Republicans expected to be an easy election victory unexpectedly turned into one of the most competitive races of President Donald Trump’s second term, as Bain, a veteran grassroots organizer, focused her campaign on the affordability crisis before the federal government shut down.
Bain’s campaign emphasizes grassroots organizing, mobilizing lobbyists and volunteers in communities and counties typically unreached during congressional elections. Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin and Vice Chairman Jane Cribb visited the district. Former Vice President Kamala Harris returned to the campaign trail for the first time since 2024, urging voters to head to the polls.
Late polls suggest her strategy is making progress. In recent days, national attention has turned to Tennessee, where polls show the Republican Party won by 22 points last year, with just 2 points separating Bain and Van Epps.
In response, Republicans across the country scrambled to boost voter turnout.
Trump’s political action committee, MAGA Inc., has spent more than $1.25 million in recent days supporting Van Epps and opposing Bain. Full-time staffers from the Republican National Committee came to the area and knocked on doors. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters visited the district to campaign with Van Epps.
Trump held a third conference call for Van Eps hours before the polls opened and made multiple appeals to voters on social media.
Bain also raised $1.23 million for Van Eps, who raised $993,000, also unusual in a heavily Republican district.
But Van Epps’ campaign, from the primary to the general election, was bolstered by about $6 million in outside PAC spending. Bain’s campaign was supported by more than $1 million in PAC spending.
But like all special elections, the outcome depends on voter turnout. Freezing weather on Dec. 2 may keep some Election Day voters home.
Leaders in 2026
The race became, by default, an early referendum on a second Trump administration.
From the beginning, Van Epps campaigned loyally to Trump and pledged to use his seat to advance Trump’s agenda “side by side” with Speaker Johnson if elected. His loyalty to the president quickly earned him Trump’s endorsement — something that nearly ended Tennessee’s Republican primary in the past.
On December 1, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson and 7th District Republican candidate Matt Van Epps took questions from reporters at billionaire Willis Johnson’s car barn in Franklin, Tennessee.
But a lot has happened since the primary.
Voter frustration with government functions has grown amid the longest federal shutdown in history, with federal workers going without paychecks, causing air travel delays and federal food aid payments being delayed.
Concerns about health insurance costs continue to rise as congressional negotiations over health care tax credits take center stage on issues hampering government reopening.
From the beginning, Bain has focused his campaign on the affordability crisis, pledging to work to lower the cost of groceries, housing and health care.
It resonated with voters, and Bain’s team knocked on 70,000 doors and made 185,000 phone calls.
Both parties also see the race as a bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections.
Trump acknowledged on Dec. 1 that analysts interpreted the election results in Tennessee’s 7th District as a signal that voters were satisfied with his administration, saying that if Van Epps performed worse than Trump’s 22-point victory last year, politicians would say his policies were unpopular.
“If it’s two points less than that, they’re going to say ‘Oh, he’s lost his mojo,'” Trump said. “I even hope Matt does better than me.”
Momentum has been building since last month’s string of victories in New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Georgia, and Democrats are trying to maintain that momentum by flipping Tennessee’s 7th District seat.
Republicans are trying to stem the tide of what U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty called a “blue wave” on Dec. 1.
“They’ve won several gubernatorial races and a mayoral race in blue cities and blue states, and they’re trying to turn that narrative into some kind of wave,” Hagerty said. “It’s time we stop them from doing that.”
Vivian Jones covers state government and politics for The Tennessean. Contact her: vjones@tennessean.com.
This article originally appeared in Nashville, Tenn.: Republican Van Epps wins special election in Tennessee’s 7th District
