A new report released by Bitget Wallet in partnership with Polymarket reveals that prediction markets are moving away from one-time bets tied to major events and toward platforms driven by daily user engagement.
Polymarket’s trading volume reached $25.7 billion in March, but the report points to deeper changes in behavior. Based on activity across 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter, users are returning more frequently and participating in a wider range of markets, from cryptocurrencies to sports to politics.
The data suggests that growth is driven by frequency rather than trade size. Over 82% of user transactions during the quarter were below $10,000, indicating that the market is still dominated by retail players. Instead of making large, infrequent bets, users are making small transactions more frequently.
“Prediction markets are less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions,” said Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet. “What we’re seeing is a behavioral shift: The market is growing with more clicks per day, rather than bigger transactions.”
Cryptocurrencies remain the main entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity. Its consistent trading and familiar price action make it a natural starting point. But as users become more active, participation shifts to markets tied to real-world events.
The report describes this evolution as structural change. Prediction markets are no longer driven solely by spikes in major events such as elections. Instead, they are becoming continuous systems, with users returning regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities.
“As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself,” said Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket. “We are seeing a shift from intermittent trading to more continuous engagement.”
This shift is also changing how these markets are used. Prices increasingly reflect real-time expectations of macroeconomic trends, politics and culture, and are starting to appear alongside traditional data sources in the media and financial analysis.
Growth accelerated rapidly. Monthly transaction volume has climbed from approximately $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry forecasts cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion this year, with a long-term target of $1 trillion.
As engagement increases, the focus shifts to accessibility and usability. Wallets are becoming a key entry point, helping users discover markets and interact with them in real time.