By Omkar Godbole (All times Eastern unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin The broader cryptocurrency market is taking a breather ahead of today’s Federal Reserve rate decision, which may confirm that the interest rate backdrop is becoming less of a tailwind.
The central bank is widely expected to keep benchmark borrowing costs unchanged in a range of 3.5%-3.75%, focusing on growth and inflation forecasts and Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments at a post-meeting press conference.
“The key question for investors is whether the dot plot shifts toward fewer rate cuts and whether Powell emphasizes the dangers of easing financial conditions too quickly,” said Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, referring to a chart of policymakers’ projected year-end interest rates. “Both developments would reinforce a ‘longer-high’ bias and slightly tighten financial conditions.”
Dori said that Bitcoin price is at a critical juncture, with repeated failures to remain above $75,000 indicating caution and mean-reversion behavior. If the Fed sounds the alarm about the inflationary impact of the Iran war-related oil price shock and reinforces expectations of a slower or delayed rate cut, Bitcoin could remain below $75,000.
He noted: “A more hawkish stance could cap Bitcoin prices below 75k and prolong the current consolidation phase.”
Singapore-based QCP Capital said the market has tempered easing expectations as rising oil prices complicate the case for a rate cut despite weak economic growth and labor data. This makes the interest rate backdrop less supportive of cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin’s rally has stalled despite renewed institutional interest in spot ETFs and greater regulatory clarity from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The broader market continues to reflect the largest cryptocurrency. The CoinDesk 20 index has remained largely stable over the past 24 hours, with ethereum (ETH), XRP (XRP), solana (SOL) and other major indices performing similarly. However, smaller coins such as SIREN, M, and KAS are up around 10% each.
In traditional markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, signaling an extension of two consecutive days of gains. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index fell back to 99.50 from Friday’s high above 100, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell back to 4.17% from 4.30%. Taken together, these moves suggest continued risk-on sentiment. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptocurrency
- Macro
- 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on March 18: U.S. PPI in February is expected to be 0.3% month-on-month (previous value: 0.5%); core PPI is expected to be 0.8% month-on-month (previous value: 0.8%)
- March 18, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. February PPI is expected to be 3.7% year-on-year (previous value: 3.6%); core PPI is expected to be 3.2% year-on-year (previous value: 3.6%)
- March 18, 9:45 am: Bank of Canada interest rate decision expected to be 2.25% (previous value 2.25%)
- March 18, 10:00 am: US factory orders in January month-on-month (previous value -0.7%)
- March 18, 2:00 pm: Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to be 3.50%-3.75% (previous value 3.50%-3.75%); Federal Open Market Committee economic forecast
- March 18, 2:30 pm: Federal Reserve Chairman’s Press Conference
- income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
- March 18: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.03
Token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- March 18: Jupiter (JUP) will hold a weekly Planetary Call community meeting to provide team updates.
- March 18: Marketing and PR executives discuss ecosystem updates.
- WalletConnect Network is voting to allocate 50 million WCT tokens as a dedicated reward budget for WalletConnect Pay in 2026. Voting ends on March 18.
- ENS is voting to make a one-time transfer of 900,000 USDC from the ENS endowment fund to wallet.ensdao.eth to cover the shortfall in streaming payments owed to ENS Labs. Voting ends on March 18.
- Unlock
- Token issuance
- March 18: Katana (KAT) will be listed on Binance, MEXC, KuCoin, and more.
Meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
market trend
- BTC is down 0.73% since 4pm ET on Tuesday to $73,825.38 (24 hours: +0.11%)
- ETH fell 0.44% to $2,307.45 (24 hours: -0.33%)
- CoinDesk 20 fell 0.78% to 2,148.73 (24 hours: -0.27%)
- The comprehensive pledge rate of Ethereum CESR dropped by 6 basis points to 2.75%
- The BTC financing interest rate on Binance is -0.0069% (annualized -7.5643%)
- DXY remains unchanged at 99.56
- Gold futures fell 0.10% to $4,996.20
- Silver futures rose 0.65% to $80.05
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 55,239.40
- The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.61% at 26,025.42 points
- The FTSE 100 rose 0.29% to 10,433.60
- The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 1.02% to 5,828.33
- The Dow closed 0.10% higher on Tuesday at 46,993.26 points
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.25% at 6,716.09 points
- The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.47% at 22,479.53 points
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.16% at 32,929.09 points
- The S&P 40 Latin America Index closed down 3.50% at 3,459.11 points
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate fell 2 basis points to 4.20%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 1.30% to 6,809.00
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.57% to 25,184.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 1.18% to 47,595.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- Bitcoin dominance: 59.11 (0.15%)
- Ethereum-Bitcoin ratio: 0.03139 (0.1%)
- Computing power (seven-day moving average): 919 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $32.37
- Total fee: 3.08 BTC / $228,857
- CME Futures Open Interest: 115,080 BTC
- BTC in gold: 14.9 ounces.
- Bitcoin and gold market capitalization: 4.93%
technical analysis
- This chart shows the number of long, or bullish, bets on BTC/USD on Bitfinex.
- Growth has stalled, with the total now at 78,470, compared with 79,115 at the beginning of this month.
- Although it may sound counterintuitive, past data shows that a decline in long positions on Bitfinex tends to be positive for BTC and vice versa.
crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Tuesday’s close at $210.23 (+3.40%), pre-market close at $213.95, +1.77%
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $23.50 (+1.73%), +0.89% at $23.71
- MARA Holdings (MARA): Closed at $9.24 (+0.11%), +0.97% at $9.33
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $14.68 (+1.94%), +1.02% at $14.83
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $16.42 (–3.24%), +1.46% at $16.66
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $10.11 (+0.90%), +0.99% at $10.21
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $9.24 (–0.86%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): Closed at $40.13 (–0.79%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Closed at $132.31 (+5.15%), +1.50% at $134.30
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $39.94 (+0.81%), +1.10% at $40.38
Cryptocurrency Treasury Corporation
- Strategy Inc. (MSTR): Closed at $150.28 (+1.87%), +0.32% at $150.76
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): Closed at $11.10 (+2.21%), unchanged pre-market
- SharpLink (SBET): Closed at $8.31 (+1.34%), +0.48% at $8.35
- Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $1.15 (+6.48%), –0.87% at $1.14
- Lite Strategies (LITS): Closed at $1.21 (–3.20%)
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETF
- Net daily traffic: $199.4 million
- Cumulative net flow: $56.51 billion
- Total BTC holdings are approximately 1.29 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Net daily traffic: $138.2 million
- Cumulative net flow: $11.99 billion
- The total amount of ETH held is about 5.76 million
Source: Farside Investors
