2026 March Madness Predictions: Bill Bender’s expert picks for NCAA tournament bracket originally appeared on The Sporting News. Click here to add Sports News as your go-to source.
It’s time for the Big Ten drought to end.
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The Big Ten hasn’t won a men’s basketball national championship since 2000 — something I didn’t think was possible when I watched Michigan State beat Florida 89-76 in a poorly maintained college apartment on April 3, 2000.
At that point, the Big Ten had won five national championships in my lifetime. How old am I now?
It doesn’t matter. Although Michigan lost to Purdue 80-72 in the Big Ten Tournament on Sunday, it is the conference’s best bet to break that drought in the 2025-26 NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines are undefeated on the road in Big Ten play — that’s what I’m relying on more heading into the one-and-done nature of the NCAA Tournament.
To put things into perspective, I’ve been doing NCAA Tournament predictions for The Sporting News since 2018, and four of my national championship picks didn’t end the first weekend. That includes Illinois in 2021 – the last Big Ten team I think will win the entire thing. My national championship picks have been good enough the past two seasons. UConn (2024) wins the national championship and Duke (2025) reaches the Final Four.
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Is Michigan worried? L.J. Carson’s season loss means less depth at point guard. Axel Lundenburg sprained his ankle in the loss to the Boilermakers. The Wolverines are 6-2 when scoring under 75 points, and those six wins have been by an average of 4.7 points per game.
Duke and Arizona — the other No. 1 seeds with 30 wins — are more than capable of winning national championships. So does defending national champion Florida State. Michigan has lost its past four national championship games. However, the Wolverines still feel like the best team this year.
The Big Ten has lost eight straight national championship games since the Spartans won the national title in 2000. Now, that streak is coming to an end.
How did we get there? Let’s take a closer look.
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March Madness Headquarters: Live NCAA Brackets | Complete TV Schedule | Printable Brackets
Eastern Region Selection
serial number
first round
1 Duke wins 16 Siena
8 Ohio State over 9 TCU
5. St. John’s College 12 Northern Iowa
4 Kansas over 13 California Baptists
6 Louisville beat 11 South Florida
3 Michigan 14 North Dakota
10 UCF over 7 UCLA
2 UConn over 15 Furman
second round
1 Duke wins 8 Ohio State
5 St. John’s University 4 University of Kansas
3 Michigan State beat Louisville 6
2 UConn over 10 UCF
Sweet 16
1 Duke University beat 5 St. John’s University
3 Michigan State University beat 2 University of Connecticut
Elite Eight
1 Duke University 3 wins over Michigan State University
Tell Duke what they earned for first place. How about a roster that includes four national championship coaches in Rick Pitino (St. John’s), Bill Self (Kansas), Dan Hurley (UConn) and Tom Izzo (Michigan State)? Good Lord.
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The only double-digit upset we picked was UCF vs. UCLA — which may depend on Donovan Dent’s status with the Bruins. There are so many blue blood chalks in this area.
A lot of the discussion about the Blue Devils has been about what they’re missing due to injuries to starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngomba. The Blue Devils won the ACC Championship with a seven-man rotation, and they still have the best all-around player in the country in Cameron Boozer.
The tricky part could be a potential second-round matchup against Ohio State, which features all-time scoring leader Bruce Thornton. No matter who takes the field, this will be a tough game for the Blue Devils.
Who will join them? There could be a second-round matchup between St. John’s and Kansas. This will be Darryn Peterson’s showcase game. Could Michigan State and UConn be the other half of the Sweet 16? The Spartans are 4-3 against UConn under Tom Izzo, so we give Michigan State the slight edge.
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This sets up an Elite Eight showdown between Duke and Michigan State. The Spartans won the 2019 Elite Eight matchup, knocking out Zion Williamson. This time, the Blue Devils succeeded.
SN Awards: All-American | Boozer Player of the Year | Lloyd Coach of the Year
Western Region Selection
serial number
first round
1 Arizona wins 16 Long Island
9 Utah State vs. 8 Villanova
5 Wisconsin wins 12 High Points
4 Arkansas vs. 13 Hawaii
6 BYU over 11 Texas/NC State
3 Gonzaga beat Kennesaw State 14
7 Miami (Fla.) beat 10 Missouri State
2 Purdue University over 15 Queens
second round
1 Arizona 9 vs. Utah State
4 Arkansas 5 Wisconsin
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3 Gonzaga over 6 BYU
7 Miami (Florida) defeated 2 Purdue University
Sweet 16
1 Arizona State beat 4 Arkansas
3 Gonzaga 7 vs. Miami (Fla.)
Elite Eight
1 Arizona wins 3 Gonzaga
Led by Tommy Lloyd, The Sporting News Coach of the Year, Arizona is expected to be the top seed in the tournament. Arizona has won nine straight games, including six against ranked opponents. Arizona has five players averaging double figures, and Lloyd has taken the lessons he learned as an assistant under Gonzaga coach Mark Few and run with them.
This leads to one of the most interesting potential matchups in the tournament. Gonzaga has won 30 games this season and is a Final Four team despite the possible absence of forward Brayden Huff, who averaged 17.8 points and 5.6 rebounds this season. This is our Elite Eight pick, but there are a few pitfalls that might get in the way.
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A potential second-round matchup between Wisconsin and Arkansas could be one of the best games of the tournament. John Calipari leads the Razorbacks to the Sweet 16 for the second straight season. Purdue also lost to Miami (Fla.) in the second round. The Boilermakers are coming off a Big Ten Championship, so that’s a legitimate stretch. BYU forward AJ Dybantsa leads the nation with 25.3 points per game. Can he lead a championship run?
We do think the Arizona vs. Gonzaga matchup is going to happen, and what better way to decide the West? The Bulldogs have won their past three games, but Lloyd has yet to face his former team.
History of Seed Disturbance:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Best of the Midwest
serial number
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first round
1 Michigan State over 16 UMBC/Howard
8 Georgia 9 vs. St. Louis
12 Akron over 5 Texas Tech
4 Alabama over 13 Hofstra
6 Tennessee over 11 Miami (Ohio)/SMU
3 Virginia 14 vs. Wright State
7 Kentucky 10 Santa Clara
2 Iowa State over 15 Tennessee
second round
1 Michigan State 8 vs. Georgia State
4 Alabama vs. 12 Akron
3 Virginia 6 Tennessee
2 Iowa 7 vs. Kentucky
Sweet 16
1 Michigan 4 vs. Alabama
3 Virginia 2 beat Iowa State
Elite Eight
1 Michigan State 3 vs. Virginia State
Michigan State may have to make it through the mini-SEC hurdles to reach the Final Four. This will be the most interesting area. Six of those teams rank in the top 10 in scoring offense, and Michigan (87.9) will play one of Georgia (89.8) or St. Louis (87.8) in the second round.
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Thankfully, we got to see Robbie Avila in Big Dance. Alabama (91.7), Miami (Ohio) (90.7) and Akron (88.6) also rounded out the top 10.
We favor Akron at 5-12 over Texas Tech, which has struggled recently without JT Toppin. The X factor is Kentucky, which has been up and down all season under second-year coach Mark Pope and is difficult to predict. This feels like the perfect time for Virginia State or Iowa State to grab this division — it would be an exciting Sweet 16 matchup. Ryan Odom compiled a 57-12 record over the past two seasons at Virginia Commonwealth University and the University of Virginia. They were the final four teams.
Michigan will likely have to go through Georgia, Alabama, and possibly Tennessee — we’ve already underestimated Tennessee’s sales — to get to the Final Four. The Wolverines lost to Auburn in the Sweet 16 last season. We still think Lundborg and Addai Mara lead this team to the Final Four. Trust Dusty May.
Southern Region Picks
serial number
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first round
1 Florida Over 16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh
8 Iowa 9 vs. Clemson
12 McNeese wins 5 Vanderbilt
4 Nebraska 13 Troy
6 North Carolina over 11 VCU
3 University of Illinois 14 University of Pennsylvania
10 Texas A&M over 7 St. Mary’s University
2 Houston wins 15 Idaho
second round
1 Florida State 8 wins over Iowa State
4 Nebraska, 12 McNeese
3 Illinois 6 North Carolina
2 Houston over 10 Texas A&M
Sweet 16
1 Florida State 4 at Nebraska
3 Illinois 2 vs. Houston
Elite Eight
3 Illinois vs. 1 Florida State
This feels like the most open and difficult to choose of the many areas – and it could make for some exciting gameplay. Florida — the defending national champion — averages 87.7 points per game with a strong frontcourt in Thomas Howe and Alex Condon. They could face two Big Ten teams after first-round games in Iowa and Nebraska. We expect the Huskers to win their first NCAA Tournament game in school history and then advance two games to the Sweet 16 under Fred Hoiberg.
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Looking for a 5-12 upset? We’ll be right back in McNeese. The Cowboys won’t let Vanderbilt be caught off guard, and the Commodores have a dynamic backfield in Tyler Tanner and Duke Myers. McNeese is one of the best teams in the country in terms of turnover.
The second half of the bracket is even more exciting. Illinois averages 84.4 points per game. When the Illini are at their best, they’re one of the best teams in the country — but will it be enough against Houston? The Cougars’ defense remains tested, ranking second in the nation with 62.9 points per game.
People have confidence in Illinois because they know the team has made it to the second weekend once in the last five games under Brad Underwood. However, would you be surprised if this team moved on after exiting the Big Ten Tournament?
More expert braces:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA Women)
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semifinals
serial number
1 Duke wins 3 Illinois
1 Michigan wins 1 Arizona
1 Michigan wins 1 Duke
No. 1 seeds have held six of the eight Final Four spots over the past two seasons, which is decidedly unreliable. Both games will be high-scoring matchups. Why are you so confident in chalk? Duke, Michigan and Arizona are among the teams with 30 wins. Arizona’s injury woes are over with Koa Pitt back, but if Elliott Caddo is at his best, Michigan will be good enough to win this game. We think the Blue Devils will sweep Illinois. It will be a rematch of the Blue Devils’ 68-63 win over the Wolverines on Feb. 21. Michigan shot 6-for-25 from 3-point range in that game. The Wolverines have found their way into the bubble — and the Big Ten’s drought is over.
