By Francisco Rodrigues (All times Eastern unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin fell more than 3.5% to fall below $67,000 as rising tensions in the Middle East forced investors out of risk assets and into the dollar.
As the conflict escalates, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies.
Shipping rates for crude oil and LNG tankers have soared after ships in the region were targeted and several operators suspended activity. Brent crude has risen more than 13% in the past five days, while freight rates for large tankers have reached record levels.
The shock is hitting financial markets. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose nearly 1% and U.S. Treasury yields moved higher as investors turned away from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, reflecting expectations that central banks may face a new round of inflationary pressures from rising fuel costs.
Bitcoin briefly approached $70,000 earlier this week, but reversed course as the conflict erupted. Despite the price upgrade, cryptocurrency prices remain range-bound.
The first U.S. strikes against Iran sent Bitcoin and Ethereum lower over the weekend, triggering long liquidations of around $300 million, but analysts at QCP Capital said the deleveraging was orderly compared to previous events earlier this year.
There was a brief spike in short-term volatility in the options market, but positioning suggested traders were bracing for weekend risks, analysts added.
“If we think back to the U.S. strike against Iran last June (also over the weekend), Bitcoin fell below $100,000 as the news broke, only to recover above on Monday and rebound to a high of $123k a few weeks later,” QCP Capital analysts wrote. “While the scale of this attack is far larger than last year, price action may hint at early signs of history repeating itself.”
Options flow suggests buyers are preparing for a possible price rise above the $70,000 mark. This suggests that investors are looking for a rebound this month after a severe market downturn.
The Strait of Hormuz remains at the center of the standoff, with Iranian and U.S. officials giving conflicting accounts of whether the waterway is closed. US President Donald Trump said the war was expected to last “four to five weeks”. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptocurrency
- March 3: The SolCex mobile app will be released on Google Play and the Apple App Store.
- Macro
- 5:00 a.m. on March 3: Eurozone inflation rate flashed year-on-year in February (previous value: 1.7%); core year-on-year growth (previously 2.2%)
- income (Estimate based on FactSet data)
- March 3: Antalpha Platform Holdings (ANTA), pre-market, $0.19
Token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- ShapeShift DAO voted to appoint PTT as the Token Economics Workstream Leader for a 6-month term, fully compensated in FOX tokens to eliminate stablecoin costs. Voting ends on March 3.
- The Decentraland DAO is voting to explore automatically enforcing soft deadline limits on approved proposals and signer keys while maintaining emergency oversight. Voting ends on March 3.
- Unlock
- Token issuance
Meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
market trend
- BTC is down 3% since 4pm ET on Monday to $66,918.56 (24 hours: +0.57%)
- ETH fell 4.04% to $1,959.34 (24 hours: unchanged)
- CoinDesk 20 down 3.45% to 1,927.49 (24 hours: +0.59%)
- The comprehensive pledge rate of Ethereum CESR increased by 1 basis point to 2.86%
- The BTC financing interest rate on Binance is -0.0009% (annualized -1.0162%)
- DXY rose 0.89% to 99.25
- Gold futures fell 0.30% to $5,278.60
- Silver futures fell 4.65% to $84.18
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.06% at 56,279.05 points
- The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.12% to 25,768.08 points
- The FTSE 100 fell 2.76% to 10,478.54
- The Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 3.49% to 5,777.18
- The Dow closed down 0.15% on Monday at 48,904.78 points
- The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,881.62 points
- The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.36% at 22,748.86 points
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.59% at 34,541.30
- The S&P 40 Latin America Index closed down 0.82% at 3,741.78 points
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate rose 9 basis points to 4.05%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures fell 1.83% to 6,762.25
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.30% to 24,448.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 1.74% to 48,104.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- Bitcoin dominance: 58.81%
- Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.029284
- Computing power (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $29.14
- Total fee: 2.65 BTC / $179,647
- CME Futures Open Interest: 104,220 BTC
- BTC in gold: 15.8 ounces
- Bitcoin and gold market capitalization: 4.46%
technical analysis
- BTC/USD remains technically capped below the 200-week moving average on a weekly basis, with a weekly relative strength index (RSI) of 27.89 and a lack of bullish divergence confirming a sideways trade between $65,000 and $70,000.
crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed at $185.24 (+5.34%) Monday pre-market, –5.64% to $174.80
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $21.73 (+5.54%), -5.66% at $20.50
- MARA Holdings (MARA): Closed at $9.45 (+5.70%), –4.97% at $8.98
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $16.43 (+0.86%), –5.11% to close at $15.59
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $16.49 (–2.83%), -3.76% to close at $15.87
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $10.55 (+6.03%), –4.83% at $10.04
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $10.47 (+2.65%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): Closed at $40.43 (+1.38%), –4.23% to close at $38.72
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Closed at $96.14 (+15.22%), –6.57% to close at $89.82
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $33.81 (+7.71%), –2.69% at $32.90
Cryptocurrency Treasury Corporation
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $137.65 (+6.29%), –4.42% at $131.56
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): Closed at $8.73 (+9.95%), –4.24% to close at $8.36
- Sharplink (SBET): Closed at $7.39 (+8.36%), –5.41% to close at $6.99
- Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $0.88 (+32.73%)
- Lite Strategies (LITS): Closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net traffic: $458.2 million
- Cumulative net flow: $55.24 billion
- Total BTC holdings are approximately 1.27 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily net traffic: $38.7 million
- Cumulative net flow: $11.67 billion
- The total amount of ETH held is approximately 5.67 million.
Source: Farside Investors
when you are asleep
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi disavows Solana meme coin after token plunges 75% (CoinDesk): Japan’s prime minister said she had no knowledge of or involvement in the Solana-based meme token, which briefly reached a market cap of $27.7 million before plunging.
Iran War Live: Israeli attacks on Tehran, Beirut; drone attack on US embassy in Riyadh (Reuters): Explosions ripped through Tehran and Beirut and global financial markets collapsed as US and Israeli attacks on Iran disrupted global energy supplies for a long time.
Iran stepped up its retaliation, and the United States closed two Gulf embassies (“New York Times”): Iran expanded its retaliatory strikes, and the United States closed its embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait after drone attacks and urged Americans to leave 14 Middle Eastern countries immediately.
Dow futures fall; oil prices rise (Wall Street Journal): Futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes fell at least 1.4%. European and Asian stocks fell and oil prices rose as the conflict in the Middle East showed signs of escalation into its fourth day.
