The Big Ten women’s basketball regular season comes to a close on Sunday. Although the UCLA Bruins, the regular-season champions, already have the trophy, Sunday’s game takes on added importance due to the Big Ten Conference Tournament, specifically where every team will enter the 15-team field.
There’s still a chance for the No. 13 Ohio State women’s basketball team to be a top-4 seed and move directly into the tournament quarterfinals on Friday. However, the No. 15 Michigan State Spartans have some say in that conversation. The Spartans can move into fourth place with a win thanks to the Maryland Terrapins’ loss to the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday and the Minnesota Golden Gophers’ loss to the Illinois Fighting Illini.
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Basketball games still need to be played before all seeds are determined, and the matchup between the Buckeyes and Spartans could be chaotic.
defensive stalemate
The top spot in the Big Ten’s rushing list has been a battle between the Buckeyes and Spartans since Michigan State hired head coach Robyn Fralick before the 2022-23 season. This season marks the third straight season that Ohio State and Michigan State rank among team averages in takeaways, as both programs do their best to try to disrupt the other.
However, all of this intensity seems to cancel itself out.
Last season was a perfect example. Michigan State traveled to Columbus and both teams forced at least 21 turnovers per game. The two add up to 23. Basically, both teams will work on their defenses and work on players who remain in the program from the summer or a few years ago. So when the team is working together, scoring off turnovers isn’t the most reliable way to score.
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Ohio State hasn’t been playing a consistently successful half-court offense as of late. Wednesday’s game against the Michigan Wolverines and two weeks ago against the Maryland Terrapins are good examples. Ohio State jumped out to a quick lead in both games, leading the Wolverines 28-14 and the Terps 28-15 after the first quarter. And then there’s always the disappointment. Against head coach Brenda Frese’s Terrapins, the third quarter record was 26-14. Michigan immediately turned the momentum around Wednesday, going on a 25-12 run in the second quarter.
Shots were missed, but that was partly a result of defensive miscues and the opposing coach’s ability to make plays and adjust the offense. Michigan did that through guard Olivia Olson, who exposed the Buckeyes’ interior defense with back-to-back shots around the rim. Michigan State isn’t a program with a traditional big man like the Bruins’ 6-foot-7 center Lauren Betts, but Spady does have forward Grace VanSlooten who can hurt the Buckeyes.
Van Sloten has been outstanding in two games against Ohio State during her nearly four-year career. In the 22-23 non-conference schedule, the then-Oregon Ducks scored 29 points and grabbed 9 rebounds. Last season, Van Sloten made his debut in East Lansing and scored 19 points and 9 rebounds. The 6-foot-3 forward from Toledo, Ohio, has the flexibility to maneuver between shooting around the rim and hurting teams, and Olson gives the Spartans a playbook for more goals. Screen in maize and blue, create mismatches with smaller scarlet and gray guards, and use them to get high-percentage shots. Ohio State couldn’t afford that on Sunday.
In addition to Van Sloten, Michigan State has a back who can challenge the Buckeyes and a secondary who can change the game, if at all. Big Ten basketball fans may have heard of Rashonda Jones, who is in her first season with the Spartans. Jones spent two underutilized seasons with the Purdue Boilermakers before moving to East Lansing. Fralick has unlocked Jones’ potential this season, and her speed and defense have been keys to the Spartans’ success. Jones averaged a career-high 2.2 steals per game, ranking fifth in the league. Offensively, Jones scored 11.9 points, her best scoring season in three years in the Big Ten Conference.
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All of that was good for the Spartans, but an ankle injury suffered against the Michigan Wolverines on Feb. 15, 2026, put a question mark on whether she would play. Jones missed the Green and White’s big win against the Northwestern Wildcats and returned to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers, although she played just three minutes late in the game.
Michigan State’s pace slows down when Jones isn’t on the floor, which doesn’t help against an Ohio State team that averages 77.2 possessions per 40 minutes, the fastest pace in Big Ten basketball. When the Spartans played the Wolverines two weeks ago, MSU held the ball to a 78.3 possession rate. This is a very close game against the Buckeyes, as Michigan ranks third in the league with 75.4 possessions per game. Without Jones, the Spartans lost five possessions against the Wildcats, which Ohio State fans know is huge when considering single-possession losses to Michigan and Maryland.
Another guard to watch is sophomore Kennedy Blair. Last season, Blair appeared in 20 games, averaging 8.9 minutes per game, and did not see any of the Spartans’ games against the Buckeyes. This season, however, Blair has been a revelation for Michigan State.
Before the season started, linebacker Celine Hallock addressed his Achilles injury at media day. Even so, the speedy defender still makes plays. Hallock paused when the calendar turned to 2026, raising questions about whether she would redshirt or leave with MSU’s six seniors. That gave Blair room to shine, and the sophomore took full advantage of it.
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Since January 22, Blair has averaged 16.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 3.4 steals per game. During that time, he had three double-doubles and four five-steal games. Blair brings intensity to the court by driving to the basket, staying in the game and generally yelling in celebration. The matchup between Blair and redshirt junior Kennedy Cambridge will be interesting, although that fire does lead to turnovers. In that same span, Blair averaged 4.3 turnovers per game and had eight against a Wolverines team as tight as Ohio State.
Expected lineup
Ohio State University
G: Jaloni Cambridge
G: chance gray
G: Kennedy Cambridge
Defender: Ava Watson
C: Elsa Lemila
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michigan state university
G: Mira Holloway
G: Serra Sword
Defender: Olivia Olson
Defender: Brooke Quarles Daniels
F: Ashley Sofelkanich
prophecy
Don’t blink on Sunday because this game will be quick. A full-court press won’t be as effective for either side, but the Buckeyes will be better in the paint after Wednesday’s game against the Wolverines. Even so, Van Sloten will be difficult to stop, and she’ll stretch where she hurts the Buckeyes.
Ohio State point guard Jaloni Cambridge will lead the Buckeyes with a double-double in points and assists. In addition to her, center Elsa Lemmilä will have a better role on offense and translate that into a solid game in the paint against a smaller Spartan team.
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It would be another close game, with the Buckeyes grabbing a win in East Lansing and Kennedy Cambridge entering the program’s history books.
LGHL Score Prediction: 83-82 Ohio State
How to watch
date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
time: 12 noon ET
Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing, Michigan
television: top ten networks
stream:Fox Sports
Standing at the door of history
Kennedy Cambridge had three steals for Ohio State on Wednesday, giving the guard 115 steals this season. This tied the program record set by guard Yvette Angel in 1985. If the guard gets just one steal, the 41-year-old record may well become history. So far this season, Kennedy Cambridge has not played in a game without recording a takeaway.
