The division championship round doesn’t have Josh Allen, and we know it won’t have Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and a few other star quarterbacks, but it does feature four very good, well-coached teams.
The Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos and New England Patriots all finished the regular season with 14-3 records. The Los Angeles Rams are 12-5 and may be the best of the four teams. No one has made it to the NFL’s Final Four this season. This is a good group of teams that each year have one of the best football weekends on the calendar.
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Here are the picks for the NFL Division Championship Game, with odds from BetMGM:
Broncos (+5) beat Patriots
No matter which side you’re on and no matter how you feel about Jarrett Stidham taking over for the injured Bo Nix, everyone should agree that this spread is an overreaction.
Jarrett Stidham will make his fifth career start in the AFC Champions League. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
(Tim Warner via Getty Images)
Before the season started, when Ben Fox of Yahoo Sports polled 12 oddsmakers to determine the point differential between each team’s starters and reserves, the Knicks’ average rating against Stidham was 3.85. Last week, when some books released predictions for a potential division title matchup, the Broncos were 1.5 points ahead of the Patriots. After the Knicks’ injury, this line moved 6.5 points from the forward line. Nothing has changed except for the quarterback, and we already know this substitution shouldn’t be worth more than four points.
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Stidham hasn’t thrown a pass the past two regular seasons, but the Broncos clearly like him. He was a priority signing for the Denver Nuggets in 2023 during Sean Payton’s first offseason. He’s getting $10 million over two years, which is a lot of money for a backup. In 2025, when he becomes a free agent again, he will receive $12 million over two seasons. Denver likes Stidham, he just doesn’t need to play. Stidham made his first NFL start as a member of the Raiders late in the 2022 season, throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns against a 49ers defense that won the NFC Championship. In Stidham’s final regular season start at the end of the 2023 season, he had a respectable 272 yards and a touchdown. In the preseason just past, Stidham finished 30 of 38 for 376 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. This isn’t a preseason and he won’t be facing defensemen who are about to be cut, but Stidham isn’t zero. The Broncos are not a quarterback-centric team either. They won on defense, Sean Payton managed tight games down the stretch, and the Knicks made a few plays when they needed to. The Knicks are doing okay this season, but the Chiefs don’t want to replace Patrick Mahomes either.
The Patriots are a good team, but they have their off days, especially with their oft-mentioned soft schedule. The playoff wins against the Chargers and Texans were impressive. Derek Meyer is already one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and the defense has gotten better in the playoffs. New England could beat Denver, especially if Stidham looks rusty after not throwing a pass the past two regular seasons. But it may not be as easy as some think.
Rams (+2.5) beat Seahawks
It’s fairly rare for an NFL favorite to win without covering the handicap, especially when the handicap is smaller. However, it happened in both of the Rams’ regular-season games against the Seahawks this season. In the first game, the Rams won 21-19 and became three-point favorites. In the rematch, the Seahawks made a stunning comeback and won 38-37, leading by 1.5 points.
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It looks like we might be in for another close game to end the trilogy.
Another oddity about the two regular-season games is that the losing team completely outplayed the winning team both times. In the Seahawks’ loss, they gained 414 yards to the Rams’ 249. In the Rams’ loss, they threw for 581 yards to Seattle’s 415 yards. The Rams lost that game, but the Seahawks should feel like they could have won Game 1 if Sam Darnold only threw two or three interceptions instead of four.
This is a great matchup and it’s almost impossible to choose one team over the other. Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula held Sam Darnold’s number for most of the past three games, but Darnold finally made a lot of plays in Week 16, leading Seattle to an overtime victory. Darnold also has an oblique injury, but it’s one that’s been largely forgotten. Darnold only threw the ball 17 times in a win over the 49ers last week, so we don’t know if he’s fully healthy. That’s good for the Rams. But Seattle is the team that has had more rest over the past two weeks, getting a bye and easily winning its divisional round game. Both of the Rams’ wins over the past two weeks have come at the same time. Seattle also has huge home-field advantage at Lumen Field, one of the rowdiest outdoor venues in sports. There are good arguments on both sides.
If we’re picking a side in a tough game, taking points seems like a no-brainer. We might even see a third instance where a team wins but doesn’t cover a small area.
last week: 3-1
Playoffs: 5-5
Season so far: 139-136-7
