Mario Barrios vs. Ryan Garcia predictions: Will Garcia finally become a world champion?

Ryan Garcia is one of the biggest stars in boxing, but he has yet to win a world title.

In an era of the sport that has seen Lewis Crocker, Mario Barrios and Rolando “Rolly” Romero become welterweight world champions, Garcia’s chances of finally claiming one of the sport’s ultimate prizes have never been greater. On Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Garcia challenges WBC welterweight champion Barrios with a chance to change his career.

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Barrios came into the fight coming off back-to-back draws with Abel Ramos and 47-year-old Manny Pacquiao, but those results did little to solidify his authority as champion. If Garcia wants to win a world title, now is the moment. The question now is whether he can seize this opportunity – and in doing so, make himself not only one of boxing’s biggest draws, but one of its top fighters.

WBC Welterweight Championship: Mario Barrios vs. Ryan Garcia

In April 2024, Garcia was banned from the sport for a year after failing a drug test for the banned substance ostarine during a fight with Devin Haney. He returned to Times Square in May to challenge Romero for the WBA (regular) welterweight title, but lost in a forgettable bout.

Garcia claimed to have suffered a hand injury during his fight with Romero, which later required surgery, which kept him out of action for another nine months, meaning he has only fought once in the past 22 months. Now, after a defeat and a drug bust, Garcia has somehow found his way into another world title fight.

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The former interim champion Barrios was promoted to the official WBC boxing champion in 2024. Since then, he has fought twice, drawing with Ramos in November of that year and Pacquiao in July of this year. Fun fact: Neither of the men involved this weekend has raised a winning hand in nearly two years – and this is a world title fight.

The fight between Garcia and Romero was one of the most brutal in history, as the two produced the third-lowest combined punch output (490 punches) in a 12-round contest in the 40-year history of CompuBox. Although Garcia’s fight with Haney was more dramatic, it also set the record for the third fewest punches thrown in a 12-round fight at the time (499).

Garcia-Barrios will almost certainly be another low-output encounter. Both men are tall welterweights who are unlikely to close the distance regularly or push the pace in this fight – that’s not what Garcia does, and Barrio will be wary of his opponent’s power and speed. I would like to see both men use their jabs in this fight and fight from distance. Both men could be hit and injured, but it’s unclear how Garcia’s strength will stack up to 147 pounds. Barrios is not a boxer.

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Garcia has suffered physical injuries in fights before, which is common for taller fighters with longer torsos, most notably a seventh-round knockout loss to Gervonta “The Tank” Davis in April 2023. Barrios also fought Davis in 2021 and was knocked out in the 11th round of their 140-pound title match.

Barrios’ physicality and jab will be key to his victory. Barrios is slow, giving Garcia a significant advantage in hand speed. Garcia needs to counter Barrios and land his money punch, which is his lightning-fast left hook.

It’s unlikely that Barrios will go straight into Garcia’s power shots, though, so Garcia will need to set them up behind feints and jabs – something he couldn’t do against Romero. In the fight with Romero, Garcia didn’t use his right hand much at all. The right hand will be key against Barrios as it can help follow up with the left hook.

But the most important factor in this fight is: What version of the unpredictable Garcia will emerge? At times, he seems distracted, caught between styles. Garcia is training with his father, Henry Garcia, in preparation for Saturday’s fight. The elder Garcia was Ryan’s first coach and could provide him with the stability and mental comfort he needed.

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If Garcia is focused, disciplined and has a game plan, he should get the job done against a mediocre Barrios.

Garcia has been one of the biggest names in boxing for years but didn’t have a resume to match. On Saturday night, facing one of the weakest champions in the sport, he finally had no excuses.

Pick: Ryan Garcia

IBF Super Lightweight Championship: Richardson Hitchens vs Oscar Duarte

Richardson Hitchins defends his IBF super lightweight title for the second time against highly rated contender Oscar Duarte in the night’s headliner.

In December 2024, the unbeaten Hitchens defeated Liam Parrot to win the gold belt, and successfully defended another Australian player George Kambosos in June this year.

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Duarte became a Fight of the Year candidate after defeating Kenneth Sims Jr. in a WBA title eliminator in August. The Mexican has won four consecutive fights since being knocked down by Garcia in December 2023.

Hitchens vs. Duarte is one of the most common fighting styles in boxing – pure boxer versus pressure fighter. While Hitchens is an excellent long-range puncher and mover, he will be severely tested by Duarte’s pressure, size and body punching.

Duarte can look to Hitchens’ April 2024 IBF final against Gustavo Lemos for inspiration. In that game, Hitchens struggled with Lemos’ front-foot aggression and ability to seal space. In the end, Hitchens reluctantly made a decision that was extremely close, but many people remained unconvinced. The fight reinforces Hitchens’ argument against a capable pressure fighter — a debate Duarte will go some way to closing on Saturday night.

Lemos was faster on his feet than Duarte and was able to overwhelm Hitchens with his volume at times. Duarte, on the other hand, is more about power than size. He’s muscular and very strong inside. However, Duarte is slow on his feet and may struggle to close the gap on the longer Hitchens.

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One of the most important factors in this battle is the training team. Duarte is surrounded by one of the best coaches in the world, Robert Garcia. Garcia only recently led Raymond Muratalla to an upset victory over Andy Cruz and had a great time in November 2025, with Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez adding another world title to his collection and Vergil Ortiz Jr. easily defeating Erickson Lubin.

Hitchens’ corner, on the other hand, was more chaotic: a mix of voices, Shakur Stevenson on the phone offering advice, and a lack of clear, specific instructions on plays that needed tweaking (i.e., the Lemos round).

Both will face the IBF’s 10-pound rehydration clause as both are considered big men in their weight classes. Hitches, in particular, has publicly stated that his time at 140 pounds is limited and that he plans to move up to welterweight. In his favor, he’s made it to the second day of weigh-ins in his past three fights, and Duarte has never restricted his fluids.

When Duarte hits the 140-pound weight limit the day before a fight, he’ll have to watch how much food and fluid he can put back into his body. If he wakes up weighing more than 150 pounds on game morning, he may need to go to the sauna to lose weight within 12 hours before he is scheduled to play.

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This is a very difficult battle. How Hitchens handles the pressure and weight could be decisive. But the champion must have an advantage at this point.

Pick: Richardson Hitchens

WBA Super Lightweight Championship: Gary Antuan Russell VS Andy Hiraoka

Saturday’s third world title fight between Gary Antoine Russell and Andy Hiraoka was almost canceled during boxing week.

Japan’s Hiraoka is dealing with a visa issue that was not resolved until late Tuesday, so he will be in the United States for more than 48 hours when he enters the arena. Japan is more than 10 hours by flight and 17 hours ahead of the United States – giving Hiraoka little time to adjust to the time zone and shake off jet lag. No doubt he will do the same as he works to gain weight for the championship. This is far from an ideal situation for Hiraoka, who has entered the match as the underdog.

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In March of this year, Russell defeated Jose “Rayo” Valenzuela via a landslide unanimous decision to win the WBA super lightweight belt. In his previous fight, Russell lost a narrow split decision to Alberto Puello.

Hiraoka, who has never tasted failure, challenged for world honors for the first time. Hiraoka has only fought one fight in the past two years, a ninth-round TKO victory over Ismael Barroso in September 2024, and has therefore fallen into inactivity.

Russell, a southpaw fighter with a powerful bite, was able to pressure Valenzuela in the second half of the fight, hurting him multiple times. Russell’s output and endurance are a problem for anyone in the 140-pound division.

Russell’s only loss came against southpaw Puello. During that fight, Russell struggled to free his hands. He was outmatched by Puello and couldn’t keep him down. Hiraoka is a long, sharp left-hander whose footwork and mechanics pose some of the same problems that Russell did.

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Hiraoka’s defense needs to be in place to avoid Russell’s size and strength. Puello managed to get between Russell’s drives and counterattack Russell enough to make him hesitate on the throw. Even so, the battle between Russell and Puello was very close, and Russell has improved since then. Hiraoka will undoubtedly try to exploit some of the tactics Puelo has had success with, but the Japanese fighter is not as compact defensively as Puelo, has not competed at a world level before, and is at risk of ring rust due to prolonged inactivity.

Hiraoka is a huge underdog, but Russell’s experience in top-level competition, combined with Hiraoka’s less-than-ideal boxing week conditions, should improve the title’s chances.

Pick: Russell

Undercard Quick Picks

• Ultra lightweight: Frank Martin Nasher Albright

• Super middleweight: Bektemir Melikuziev Sena Agbeko

• Middleweight: Amari Jones def. Luis Arias

• Heavyweight: Joshua Edwards def. Brandon Colantonio

• Super Featherweight: Mohammed Alakel David Calabro

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The Uncrowned King will have full live coverage and round-by-round results on Saturday night.