Tonight, Manchester City will face Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in the first leg of the Champions League round of 16. This game is the next rivalry between the two teams. Last season, Real Madrid eliminated the injury-plagued and aging Manchester City in the Champions League knockout round with a total score of 6-3. Real Madrid had the opportunity to expose Manchester City’s weaknesses last season. They seized the opportunity ruthlessly.
Real Madrid enter tonight’s game without seven key players due to injury this season. Ed Militao, David Alaba, Alvaro Carreras, Dani Ceballos, Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappe and Rodrygo will all miss tonight’s game. Their absence could create opportunities for Guardiola’s side. It does raise the question: do Manchester City have a chance against Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu tonight?
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Manchester City have the weapons to fight Real Madrid.
Real Madrid will play a makeshift defense against Manchester City tonight as Ed Militao, David Alaba and Avalo Carreras have been ruled out of tonight’s match. Looking at Real Madrid’s lineup, Ferland Mendy or Eduardo Camavinga, Antonio Rudiger, Raul Asensio and Trent Alexander-Arnold are likely to start in Real Madrid’s defence. Ahead of them, Aureliano Chuamini, Eduardo Camavinga and Federico Valverde are likely to make up Madrid’s midfield. Vinicius Júnior, Brahim Diaz, Arda Guler and possibly Gonzalo Garcia will start for Alvaro Arbeloa’s side. The lineup does have some quality. However, City’s attacking players do look vulnerable at the back.
I expect Erling Haaland, Antoine Semenho and Rayan Cherki to start for Manchester City tonight. This attacking lineup is capable of taking on Real Madrid. Haaland’s speed, power and finishing ability are combined with Rayan Cherki’s extreme technical ability and ability to break up games in an instant. However, Jeremy Doku, Omar Marmouche and Savinho are all likely to start at the Bernabeu.
Starting any one of Docu, Savinho or Omar Marmouche could give City an attacking advantage that Real Madrid can’t stand.
Jeremy Doku has tormented Trent Alexander-Arnold in the past when he was playing for Liverpool. Doku has the ability to do it again at the Bernabeu. The situation with Doku is that he has only recently returned from injury and may not be ready to start after starting against Newcastle. Savinho is in good form and could start on the right wing to break down Real Madrid’s defence. The rationale for Savinho starting is that he is still a hot-and-cold player at this stage of his career. Omar Mamouche is in fine form after scoring twice against Newcastle. In my opinion, Erling Haaland is already a lock to start tonight, so Mamouch’s only chance of starting tonight is to start alongside Haaland and Semenho, as he did in Manchester City’s 2-1 win over Liverpool at Anfield. These three can break through Madrid’s defence, and if given the opportunity, these three will surely seize them. Having said that, I expect Cherki to start as Guardiola wants his Manchester City side to have as much control of tonight’s game as possible.
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Guardiola has reason to field a dynamic front three to counter Real Madrid’s makeshift defence. Manchester City do have the players to do that. I expect Haaland, Cherki and Semenho to start at the Bernabeu. The trio could expose Madrid’s backline. But if Guardiola wants pace on the wing or another finisher, Jeremy Docu, Savinho or Omar Marmouche could all start.
However, if City get too enthusiastic, they could fall into the hands of Real Madrid.
I don’t think City are going to go crazy and play an overly attacking lineup to try and put a goal past Real Madrid. This is not how Manchester City or Guardiola’s teams play. Rodri, Bernardo Silva and Nico O’Reilly are expected to start at the Bernabeu tonight. These three have become Guardiola’s first-choice midfielders. O’Reilly can push forward like we’ve seen this season. He also scored in City’s 2-1 win over Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in December. So there is a goal threat in Manchester City’s midfield.
If Manchester City does go all out against Real Madrid tonight, it will probably fall into Real Madrid’s hands. Real Madrid are expected to look to try and hit Manchester City at half-time given the players missing from Alvaro Arbeloa’s side. Guardiola’s side will also try to put pressure on City when they look to play out from the back. Vinicius Junior’s speed and skill have become Real Madrid’s biggest offensive threat. This could work to their advantage if City are too harsh on Madrid. That will be something Guardiola will hope to avoid tonight at the Bernabeu.
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Final thoughts.
Manchester City have a chance against Real Madrid tonight. Real Madrid are missing many important players for tonight’s game. However, Guardiola would be hard-pressed to choose anything other than an experienced defense and a midfield of Bernardo, Rodri and O’Reilly. City’s shape in the final third is where City have a number of options to counter Real Madrid’s defence. This could be where City want to expose Real Madrid.
I expect City to play with the intention of controlling tonight’s game and take their chances when they arrive. However, if Guardiola opts for a dynamic front three, he may look to capitalize on the opportunities created by Real Madrid’s injuries.
