Iranian oil flows through Strait of Hormuz even as Gulf neighbors’ exports shut

Author: Shariq Khan, Jonathan Saul and Arathy Somasekhar

NEW YORK/LONDON/HOUSTON, March 11 (Reuters) – Iranian crude continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz at near-normal rates despite attacks on ships in the narrow waterway linked to Tehran that have sharply reduced exports from other Gulf countries, a Reuters review of tanker tracking data showed.

According to an analysis by TankerTrackers.com, Iran has exported about 13.7 million barrels of crude oil since Israel and the United States launched attacks on Iran on February 28. TankerTrackers.com is a maritime intelligence company that specializes in tracking the so-called Shadow Fleet, a network of ships used to transport oil and gas from countries subject to Western sanctions.

Ship tracking service Kpler expects Iranian exports to be even higher in the first 11 days of March, at about 16.5 million barrels.

Iran’s retaliation for Israeli and U.S. attacks has included attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure across the Middle East, bringing the transit of non-Iranian ships through the main gateway for much of the Middle East’s oil exports to a virtual standstill and forcing regional producers to cut output.

Iran’s ability to continue exporting oil without any reports of interceptions stands in stark contrast to what has happened during the U.S. military campaign in Venezuela, which has included a naval blockade of the Latin American country and the seizure of ships trying to enter and exit Venezuelan waters.

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“I am surprised that the United States, which succeeded in seizing vessels linked to Venezuela in December, did not launch a similar operation before this conflict broke out or is currently doing so,” said David Tannenbaum, director at consulting firm Blackstone Compliance Services.

Still, U.S. efforts to stop Iran-linked tankers could lead to more attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, said Next Barrel oil and shipping analyst Matias Togni.

James Lightbourn, a shipping financier and founder of maritime investment and advisory firm Cavalier Shipping, said Iran has an incentive to keep the Strait of Hormuz open at least to some extent as long as Iranian ships pass through the area.

“A complete closure of the strait, such as laying mines, would reduce Iran’s losses if the U.S. seized the oil tanker,” Lightbourne said.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether Washington plans any action on Iranian oil exports.

Iran’s export growth remains unchanged from last year

Data from TankerTracker.com and Kpler show that from February 28 to March 11, Iran exported the equivalent of 1.1 million barrels to 1.5 million barrels per day. The country’s average exports last year were 1.69 million barrels, according to Kpler records.

The pace is likely to accelerate in the coming days. Several VLCCs – the largest oil tankers in service – are still loading oil at Iran’s Khag Island export hub, according to satellite images reviewed by TankerTrackers.com.

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Before the February 28 attack, Iran’s exports had increased to about 2.17 million barrels per day in February in anticipation of military action by Israel and the United States, Kpler data showed. Data show that in the week ending February 16, Iran’s oil exports hit a record high, about 3.79 million barrels per day.

Six crude oil tankers have left Iran since February 28, including the U.S.-sanctioned Cuma tanker that set sail this week, according to analysis by Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Two LPG tankers, also subject to U.S. sanctions, set out from Iran on Friday after loading cargo, Reuters reported earlier.

Another analysis showed that at least 11 million barrels of crude oil have been shipped out of Iran, with four supertankers carrying 8 million barrels arriving in the waters around Singapore.

The vessels followed the same navigation pattern within Iran’s exclusive economic zone, which extends up to 24 miles beyond the local 12-nautical-mile territorial limit.

Shipping sources said this was seen as providing a level of protection to the ships by keeping them within Iranian waters.

(Reporting by Shariq Khan in New York, Jonathan Saul and Enes Tunagur in London, Arathy Somasekhar in Houston; Editing by David Gregorio)

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