The closely watched Texas Democratic Senate primary has turned into a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, testing not only which type of candidate Democrats prefer heading into 2026, but also two different theories on how to win elections in a state where Democrats want to regain control of the Senate.
To return to the Senate majority, Democrats essentially need to win in Texas, where Democrats would need to flip four seats to win a 51-seat majority. That, coupled with the perception that 2026 appears to be Texas Democrats’ best chance since 2018, makes the Senate race one of the most important congressional races of the midterms.
However, it is also testing two theories of how to win in the state, which could become a key battleground in the 2028 presidential election if Democrats win in 2026. On the one hand, this is the idea that Democrats need a candidate who can expand their electorate and appeal to independents, and that no matter how many Republicans disapprove of the current party, there will be enough to vote Democratic. On the other hand, Democrats’ best chance of winning is to nominate a candidate who can appeal to unprecedented numbers of voters.
In this race, Talarico emerged as the favored candidate among those who subscribed to the first theory, a group that includes many Democratic strategists and pundits. Crockett, by contrast, is beloved by the party’s base for his personal style when attacking Republicans.
There are other significant differences between these activities. Talarico ran a relatively traditional campaign, at least structurally. After declaring his candidacy early in last September’s race, he did the usual: hired a campaign manager, ran ads and held rallies and fundraisers across the state.
Crockett, on the other hand, joined the campaign shortly before the early December deadline but had not named a campaign manager as of at least mid-February, has run relatively few ads and has been campaigning on weekends while working in Washington, D.C.
Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist working with Talarico’s campaign, told Salon that if Crockett wins, Texas Democrats will have to rethink how they run their campaigns.
“I’ve been campaigning in Texas for 36 years,” Rocha said. “One thing’s for sure: If you want to win, you need to spend a lot of money and time talking to voters for as long as possible, and that’s what James has been doing. If James doesn’t win, it’s going to upend the way people run campaigns.”
The two candidates also appear to bring different political theories to what will be a particularly high-stakes election in November.
Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, told Salon that based on his research, he also sees a clash between strategists and pundits and the Democratic base heading into the primary.
“There are discussions on both sides at the elite level about elections and general elections. And then there’s what’s actually happening among primary voters,” Blank said. “The left is discussing the electoral possibilities in Texas and whether Crockett or Talarico will be more electable in November. Again, this is largely an elitist discussion. Most voters are looking at the two candidates to see who they’re familiar with, see who they like better, and then go in that direction.”
Blank noted that similar conversations are happening among Republicans in their own primaries, with many in the party preferring scandal-plagued state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a staunch ally of President Donald Trump. However, many conservative elites expressed a preference for incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn given his past performance in Texas elections.
The latest Texas Politics Project survey, conducted between February 2 and 16, demonstrates some conflict between the Democratic party elite and primary voters, with Crockett leading Talarico by 12 points.
Digging deeper, it appears that this is simply because of her higher popularity and popularity among Democrats, with 71% of Democratic respondents having a favorable opinion of Crockett, compared to just 59% of Talarico.
Blank attributes this in part to Talarico’s personal brand of politics, which includes embracing Christianity. As a Presbyterian seminarian, Talarico honed his ability to use religious language to defend liberal policies, making him a darling of the chattering class. However, “Democratic voters don’t necessarily have a strong desire to instill more Christianity into their politics,” Blank said.
“The discussion going on among elites is about the outcome of the election in November. To expect voters to think about it this way is asking too much of most voters,” Blank said. “I think the Talarico argument and the Cornyn argument are very elitist-driven arguments about eligibility, and I don’t think people realize that outside of the state.”
Blank also said the race was not as contentious as national media portrayed it, with both candidates receiving intense national media attention for comments that Blank considered largely irrelevant.
Shortly after entering the race, Crockett faced backlash for comments he made a year ago likening the mentality of Latino Trump supporters to a “slave mentality.” Crockett later told CNN that she was “not saying that every Latino has this mentality.”
Talarico also faced backlash for allegedly calling former opponent Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas, a “mediocre black man,” an accusation that Talarico’s campaign said was inaccurate and Talarico insisted he was saying Allred was a mediocre candidate. Blank said both moments drew widespread attention from the national media, painting a more negative picture of the primary campaign than it actually was.
Brannon Miller, a pollster at Chism Strategies, described a different picture of the race in an interview with Salon, saying there are more swing voters in the primary who appear to be turning toward Talarico in the final days of the campaign.
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“A lot has certainly changed over the past few weeks, in part because of the uncertainty of the primary, but it’s only been a few weeks of good news cycles for Talarico,” Miller said.
He said he believed the poll he conducted on Feb. 23-24 was capturing last-minute changes in the campaign caused by national news events, such as CBS’s alleged cancellation of an interview with Talarico on Stephen Colbert’s “The Late Show” and the subsequent virality of the interview, which has racked up more than 9 million views since being posted in mid-February. CBS has denied barring Colbert from conducting the interview, saying it suggested instead that conducting the interview could trigger the FCC’s equal time rules and force the show to attack Talarico’s opponents.
Regardless, the issue is favorable for Talarico, who a Chism Strategies poll found leads Crockett by 12 points in the Democratic primary. Crockett called the CBS debacle at the time a “boost” for Talarico.
Miller also noted that while Talarico might theoretically be able to appeal to religious independents and some Republicans, there is some evidence that his religious beliefs are not a driving force in his campaign.
“Talarico actually fares worse for Democratic primary voters who attend church or religious services at least once a week. The most devout Democrats are actually Jasmine Crockett’s strongest supporters, and that’s because that group is made up more of voters of color, particularly African-American voters,” Miller said. “There’s a perception about Talarico, and I don’t know if it’s entirely justified, that his religious rhetoric can appeal to conservative or moderate religious voters who typically vote Republican.”
Crockett’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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