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As you read this story, you will learn the following:
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By studying population trends and forecasting models, researchers have come to believe that nearly 15,000 U.S. cities will face significant population declines by 2100.
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Densely populated areas of the cities in question may see declines of up to 44%.
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The largest population declines are expected in cities in the Northeast and Midwest.
No city in the Northeast or Midwest is immune to population decline. States like Texas and Utah are currently experiencing growth, but that doesn’t mean that growth will continue. At least, not according to research. The United States is about to experience a significant population decline, and fast.
A study published in natural city Predict the behavior of the U.S. population by investigating a variety of trends, data, and models. The results paint a rough picture of the future of cities across the country.
“We find that nearly half of the nearly 30,000 U.S. cities will face some degree of population decline by 2100, accounting for 12-23% of the population and 27-44% of the population area of these 30,000 cities,” the authors wrote. “The impact of large population declines will create unprecedented challenges.”
The project began as an analysis commissioned by the Illinois Department of Transportation to analyze the state’s transportation challenges due to demographic changes, but the data prompted the study’s authors to expand the scope of the study nationwide. Looking beyond the nation’s largest cities provides a clear sense of the scale of change brought about by population decline.
Researchers at the University of Illinois at Chicago pulled data from the past 20 years of the U.S. Census and the Annual American Community Survey and combined it with climate projections known as the “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” to show that conditions in U.S. cities could look very different in 2100.
However, population decline will not occur everywhere. And forecasting can be difficult. The study estimates that the greatest losses will come from the Northeast and Midwest as people move south and west. But that doesn’t mean that areas with declining populations won’t see growth, or that every city in a growth zone will prosper.
Cities like Cleveland, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh, and even currently growing cities like Louisville, Syracuse, and New Haven, could experience population collapse. Vermont and West Virginia are most at risk, with 80% of cities in these states likely to shrink. Illinois, Mississippi, Kansas, New Hampshire and Michigan are not far behind, with up to 75% of cities at risk of population decline.
Losses may not always occur between state lines. The paper’s authors believe that California’s southern coast, for example, will be depopulated as people flock to the northern coast. They also expect current population growth in Texas and Utah to be reversed.
“Projections indicate that by 2100, cities in all states except the District of Columbia and Hawaii will face some type of population decline,” the authors write.
When nearly a quarter of an entire city evacuates, leaving vast areas unused, it threatens to disrupt essential services — everything from the power grid to water pressure to transportation services. “Unless there is a paradigm shift away from planning solely based on growth, resource allocation challenges will persist,” the authors write.
The combination of declining populations and aging infrastructure creates a whole new set of social, economic and policy challenges. “Estimates of future population trends can help authorities better plan and design cities and their infrastructure systems to reduce population,” the authors write.
This is not just about major metropolitan areas, which has been the sole focus of past research. Instead, the survey looked at population centers, regardless of their size. The news in smaller cities is not optimistic. In fact, population decline is likely to create additional challenges in these areas, as the financial, human and natural resources available to them are more limited.
Typically, depopulation occurs when working-age residents move elsewhere in search of new jobs, leaving behind older populations in the cities they leave. This could exacerbate economic and city service challenges.
Declining populations may also have other effects, such as food deserts as store closures in certain areas may occur. Transportation systems may have to adapt to help vulnerable residents get the services they need. “It is important to consider how population decline will affect all infrastructure systems,” the authors wrote. “Additionally, as infrastructure deserts already exist, the challenge of meeting residents’ basic needs will be greater.”
The study authors hope policymakers adapt now. “What is certain is that the planning and engineering community needs to make an important cultural shift away from traditional growth-based planning to adapt to the dramatic changes in population,” they wrote.
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