Most people are already well aware of gold’s rise over the past few years. To say it is historic would be an understatement. After hitting a ceiling around $2,000 an ounce multiple times in the early 2020s, gold finally broke through and has been rising almost ever since. Gold prices broke through the $5,000 mark in January and are still at that level.
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Gold’s rally is also historic in another sense – but perhaps investors shouldn’t get too excited about it.
February 2026 marked the eighth consecutive month of rising gold prices. Most monthly returns are not small either.
|
moon |
return |
|---|---|
|
July 2025 |
1% |
|
August 2025 |
4% |
|
September 2025 |
12% |
|
October 2025 |
4% |
|
November 2025 |
5% |
|
December 2025 |
2% |
|
January 2026 |
10% |
|
February 2026 |
3% |
Data source: Investing.com.
Gold has traditionally been considered a safe-haven asset and can appreciate in value when stock markets fall. As I’ve noted in the past, gold’s long-term correlation with the U.S. dollar S&P 500 Index (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) Almost zero. This means gold can pretty much do whatever it wants, anytime, anywhere. It might help protect against a stock market decline, but it might not. In fact, gold prices can react to market events, geopolitics, monetary policy, debt and other issues.
If we look back at history, eight consecutive months of gold price gains is almost unprecedented. In fact, this has only happened once since 1970 – in February 2008.
It’s difficult to attribute gold’s long-term rise to one specific cause, but something was definitely smelling at the time. Interestingly, Treasury yields have also been falling steadily in 2007, so a potential double risk-off signal is brewing.
If we look at the S&P 500 chart during this time, we see that the peak of gold’s rise ended just before the index peaked. After the financial crisis hit the market, the S&P 500 entered a deep bear market, causing the index to lose half its value.
The big question now is whether gold’s recent rally signals another harbinger of a recession and/or bear market.
The weakness we’re seeing in the labor market right now should be a sign that this isn’t just a coincidence. In essence, the frequent negative monthly employment growth we have seen over the past year is a clear sign of labor market weakness. In this case, companies typically see a challenging environment ahead and don’t want to commit to excessive spending.
