Mid-March is a good time of year for a number of reasons, but not necessarily a good time for analysis. A frequent commenter asked me how to analyze spring data. The simple answer is I don’t. There are many reasons. The most important reason is that the sample size is too small. I sometimes quote these numbers, but they don’t really mean anything.
The second problem is that we don’t know what level of competition these people face. We get excited about young players breaking out, until we realize they’re primarily playing against other young players. Obviously, this is especially true for veterans. Finally, when we look at veterans, we have to consider that sometimes they are doing specific things that may not translate into performance. A pitcher might pitch a ball on a specific pitch, or a batter might try to hit the ball the opposite way.
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With all of this in mind, I’d like to take this opportunity to answer another question. Questions were asked about the origin of many of these figures. An analyst is only as good as his or her tools, and I need to freely admit that others have done most of the heavy lifting. My job is to take this data and use it to analyze players and performance. However, like theologians and the Bible, we are better off when more people understand the underlying sources and their strengths and weaknesses.
Baseball Reference Network
One person can call Baseball Reference Network The official online baseball encyclopedia. The advantage is the wealth of information and the ease of finding what you’re looking for. it sets itself apart Fangraphs.com By adding things like rankings in certain categories on each player’s page, include a section on the times they led the league or finished in the top ten in certain categories. This means a lot to me when I tally up the award votes and deserved MVP points.
It should be noted that B-ref uses its own WAR formula, which we usually call BWAR. It’s primarily based on their fielding metric, which correlates closely with defensive runs saved (Fielding Bible). It doesn’t have the rich deployment metrics that Fangraphs and other sources have. However, if you want quick information on a player, from traditional stats to more specialized stats, this is definitely a great resource.
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Fangraphs.com
Fangraphs.com is my favorite website and probably the most trusted resource. The advantage of Fangraphs over Baseball Reference is that it contains more minor league information, and that comes in handy when breaking down hitter and pitcher numbers from the past few weeks. They also include international numbers. Baseball-reference also has this information, but it takes a few extra clicks to get to it. When I need this information urgently, I go to Fangraphs.
Obviously, the graphic part of the name is key. They contain a lot more than Baseball Reference, which I call process data. So, what exactly is process data? Simply put, it includes things like pitch velocity, spin rate, and exit velocity of a batter. So if you want to know a pitcher’s average curveball velocity or a hitter’s chase rate, contact rate or slugging rate, Fangraphs is the fastest resource for getting that information.
I should point out that they do have access to leaderboards. Both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference offer paid services that allow you to customize these rankings for your own research. I personally wouldn’t do this at the moment as the free version gives me everything I want, but people who want a more detailed analysis should check it out.
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baseball expert
baseball expert website is another resource that more and more analysts are using. In particular, it contains some of the same information as Fangraph, but uses more charts and graphs to display the information more graphically. These include things like heat maps for hitters and tracking pitchers’ pitches as well as movement, velocity and spin.
These numbers are very useful, especially when looking at individual performances early in the season. Hitters and pitchers may look great or terrible because of the numbers, but the underlying information may not match up. For visual enthusiasts who want to understand what a number means, viewing it graphically is useful. The website also contains more basic numbers that explain why field numbers and basic run numbers explain what they do.
As I said before, an analyst is only as good as his or her tools. The goal of this space is not only to analyze, but to educate on how analysis is done. I may be the analyst here, but I’m also a teacher at heart. So if you’ve ever faced a problem that left you scratching your head, this is the place for you. Feel free to jump into the comments with specific questions. As we get closer to the actual season, we’ll start looking fast and furious at the actual numbers flying towards us. Until then, enjoy the last few days of spring baseball while you can.
