Seattle has a late-season gut check game this week
The Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West will face off in another massive divisional round-defining showdown on Thursday night, a game that will likely determine who wins the division title and gets home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. These are two of the best teams in the league this year and will be Super Bowl contenders no matter who wins the division. Even though they both enter this game with an 11-3 record, they’re not all that equal.
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The Rams have been a strong team this season, showing incredible offensive firepower and a stellar defense even in losses. However, the Seahawks offense has had some chaotic performances of late, which has caused some trouble for the team. small suspending their ability to make the playoffs.
The Seahawks offense has been mediocre since a 21-19 loss to the Rams in Week 11. Seattle ranks 21st in expected points per game, 13th in success rate and 24th in third-base conversion rate, according to TruMedia. The Seahawks still had some high-flying and explosive moments that made them an incredible team this season, but overall, it was more inconsistent than they would have liked. They hit the pinnacle of dominance with a 7-10 offense through the first 10 weeks of the season, but things haven’t been so good since.
Part of the reason is that non-play action passes have fallen off a cliff. They’ve gone from one of the most explosive deep games in the league to a lackluster one as of late. Even their passing game has dropped from the consensus No. 1 offense in the league to a top-10 offense over the past month. That might feel like nitpicking because this isn’t one of the worst offenses in the league, but they are a Super Bowl contender and they’ve lost to Super Bowl contenders within their division before. So it’s fair to worry here.
Sam Darnold and the Seahawks passing game haven’t been lighting up the team lately. (Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)
(Jan Gershovich via Getty Images)
The Rams, on the other hand, have continued to attack every defense they face as of late, averaging a whopping 3.18 points per drive since Week 11 and leading the league in red zone touchdown rate of 72.7%. Third downs have always been an issue, but they are very effective at early drops (overall) so it’s not too much of an issue. The Seahawks’ stellar defense will likely prevent the Rams from scoring a third straight 40-point game, but they’re now on pace to reach the playoffs at an all-time high.
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The stakes are huge, these teams are going through different ebbs and flows, and the Rams are peaking at the perfect time. This is the Thursday Night Football we want!
Tampa Bay and Carolina will play one of the lowest high-stakes games this weekend
What else can be said about the NFC South? As Tampa Bay has fallen off a cliff from its form earlier in the season, this is the lowest the division has ever felt in terms of overall quality.
Tampa Bay and Carolina will play the first of two games on Sunday, with the final game in Week 18. While the Panthers have improved this season, last weekend showed that both teams are very weak at the top of the division — but a win is a win, and here we are.
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The Panthers and Buccaneers lost to the Saints and Falcons, respectively, in Week 15. Both teams have been among the worst in the league this year, with the Buccaneers and Panthers each managing just seven wins. No one thinks these two teams have a chance of winning in the playoffs, which brings us to something the NFL needs to consider: removing the automatic home game for the division champion.
The division champion should still automatically qualify for the playoffs, but then be ranked by record and re-seeded as the playoffs progress. Why should someone who crawls out of a sewer with one shoe and wins a division title be rewarded?
Why am I proposing this idea of what to do with the porous and humiliating NFC South? Well, Christmas is coming up and I’m not feeling well, made worse by just thinking about everything the Falcons have done this season. Let’s get back to the actual team.
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How the Chargers’ performance against the Cowboys predicts their playoff run
The Chargers were a little inconsistent at the end of the season, but they are firmly in control of the playoffs with a 10-4 record. While their record is impressive, some of their performances this season have fallen short in terms of actual performance.
As they enter the final stretch of the season, currently occupying a playoff spot, the playoff hopeful Cowboys will provide a good test with the array of high-end talent they acquired. Both teams have flaws, but the Chargers still need to prove they can beat the more complete offenses in the league, and the Cowboys definitely have that.
Los Angeles’ defense is having another quality season, but it hasn’t had the toughest offense this year, and that should change this weekend. Even in the Chargers’ two-game win over the Chiefs, Kansas City’s skill talent hasn’t been a huge challenge for them. Dak Prescott and a potent Dallas offense will present problems they haven’t had outside of the Colts early in the season, who allowed 38 points to them.
The surprise: Jim Harbaugh has a well-coached team that looks ready for the playoffs. (Photo by Caitlin Mulcahy/Getty Images)
(Caitlin Mulcahy via Getty Images)
The Chargers have been one of the better defensive teams in the league since their Week 7 game. Since the start of Week 8, they rank in the top three in most defensive efficiency statistics and have failed to get a first down on 44.6 percent of their opponent’s offenses. What they do against other offenses is certainly rough, but those offenses aren’t the scariest units in the league. This game includes games against the Vikings, Titans, Steelers, Jaguars, Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs. The Jaguars ruthlessly scored 35 points, but the Chargers defense struggled against an offense that featured mostly backup quarterback Trey Lance. The Chiefs held the deficit to 13 points last week before Patrick Mahomes was injured, which was impressive, but their overall talent isn’t as good as Dallas’.
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The problem for the Cowboys is the defense. The offense is loaded with stars almost everywhere except at running back – which is solid at worst. Prescott is playing elite football this year, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are a monster duo at wide receiver, and the offensive line is in top shape and is one of the best units in the league.
It’s a tough game for a team that’s still building its defensive staff, but if the Chargers can slow down the Cowboys offense, they’ll have a chance to change their playoff prospects. The way the Jaguars beat them up front was troubling, but they can put people at ease now.
On offense, the beleaguered and injured defensive line will have the interesting task of blocking the Cowboys’ rotation of interior defensive tackles in Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark and Osa Odijizwa. I’ve watched enough Chargers offensive line games to know what’s coming. Los Angeles may not have enough horses to run with, but we’ll find out soon enough how the Chargers fare against the desperate and talented Cowboys.
Bills and Patriots go their separate ways for a huge weekend
After Buffalo’s dramatic victory over the division rival Patriots, a fierce battle has begun between two of the best teams in the NFL to see who will win the AFC East — potentially Gain home field advantage in the playoffs. The Patriots and Bills are evenly matched in the season series, but the Patriots hold the keys to the division title with 11 wins and a 10-game lead over the Bills.
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These two teams face a huge disparity in the quality of the opposition they will face, with oddsmakers suggesting both teams will have the same record after this weekend – adding to all the pressure in the world in the final two weeks of the season.
Buffalo gets the perfect tie it needs to stay even with the Patriots (Cleveland Browns). The Browns are an oddly hot topic of discussion this season. Not because of Myles Garrett’s epic pursuit of Michael Strahan’s sack record, but because of the obsession with rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Fortunately for Buffalo, Sanders has been the worst starting quarterback in the league this year, completing just 48 percent of his non-screen passes. The Browns have several formidable prospects in running back Quinshane Judkins and tight end Harold Fanning Jr., but Sanders is limited and prone to disaster, and the Bills’ strong pass defense should be able to neutralize him. Judkins might hit some nice runs against a porous run defense, but it’s hard to see how they can keep up with the Bills — unless Garrett makes life completely untenable for Buffalo.
As for the Patriots, they will travel to Baltimore to face the desperate Ravens, who just had one of their best performances of the season and held the Bengals to 0 points on the road. Baltimore is still an incomplete team, but even in this weakened state, with an improved defense and Lamar Jackson getting healthier each week (assuming his recent “flu protocol” subsides), this is still an incredibly tough team. The Ravens actually held a three-point lead in this game, which wasn’t free for the Patriots who also needed to win this game. This is much tougher than playing against a rebuilding team with a Day 3 rookie quarterback.
New England will end the season with fellow AFC East teams the Dolphins and Jets, who, like Cleveland, are starting late-round and undrafted players at quarterback. Buffalo will play the Eagles first and then the Jets.
Last weekend set the stage for drama, and this weekend is the start of a home playoff showdown between two of the most explosive quarterbacks in the league. Fasten your seat belt!
