On Friday, MLB Pipeline released the league’s annual preseason rankings of the top 100 prospects. Five Brewers made the cut, all of whom had been named Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects just days earlier.
Since I already briefly profiled each prospect when Baseball America’s roster was announced, I won’t repeat myself. If you want a quick overview of each lead, check out this article.
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Now, what I’m interested in is why these two lists are different; in other words, why does MLB Pipeline rank each prospect lower or higher than Baseball America does?
3. SS Made by Jesus (BA No. 4)
Mudd’s status as one of baseball’s top prospects is universally recognized. Pipeline favors Meder over Cardinals infield prospect J.J. Wetherholt, who is ranked higher than Meder by Baseball America, but the difference between Meder and Wetherholt (along with Kevin McGonigle, Leo DeVries, and even No. 1 prospect Connor Griffin) is very small. While these shortstop prospects aren’t exactly the same, they are all viewed as having superstar potential and (so far) have lived up to their expectations in the minors. Any one of these guys could end up being the best major league player in the group.
One of the reasons Pipeline ranks Meder higher than Weatherholt is that he’s more likely to play shortstop, generally considered the “advanced” position. Weatherholt will likely move to second or third base (at least early in his career), as he’s not a better defensive shortstop than current Cardinals shortstop Marcin Winn. Milwaukee does have potential in defensive shortstop Cooper Pratt, but he’s just a prospect; Winn just won a Gold Glove. Brewers shortstop Joey Ortiz was also arguably a top-three defensive shortstop in the league, but his bat left a lot to be desired early in his career.
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26. INF Luis Pena (BA No. 47)
Pena is ranked more than 20 spots higher by Baseball America. As detailed in the BA article, Pena’s offensive numbers took a dip once he was promoted to High-A. Pipeline takes a more optimistic view:
“Pena remained aggressive in seeking contact, and the High-A pitcher exposed his allergy to off-fastballs, throwing off-speed pitches about 60 percent of the time after the promotion. Pena moves so fast, he needs contact of this quality, but now, he needs to adjust back.”
Another thing holding Pena back right now is his defense. While he’s fast, has good range for his size, and has an above-average arm, he shows a tendency to “let the ball slip away or… sail.” His final home could be at second or third base.
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Pena is still raw, very young (only turning 19 in November), and still developing, so there’s a lot to predict when predicting his potential future results. Still, he’s capable of being a top-10 player on this list someday — which is ostensibly part of the reason he’s ranked so high.
51. SS/2B/OF Jett Williams (BA No. 71) & 64. SS Cooper Pratt (BA No. 50)
While Platt (No. 64 in the pipeline) is ranked higher on BA’s roster than Williams (No. 51 in the pipeline), their positions are reversed here. Prater is a better defender and could have a greater overall upside if his bat develops as expected, but that’s far from a sure thing.
Platt had a solid on-base record last year (.343), but his batting average (.238) and slugging percentage (.348) still need improvement. Williams (.828 OPS, 17 HR) had a much better offensive season last year than Pratt (.691 OPS, 8 HR). Williams is also fast (sprinting speed over 30 feet per second), is a good runner, and is versatile. He played at least 30 minor league games at three different positions (shortstop, second base and center field). Pipeline believes Williams is “a perfect fit for Milwaukee’s organization, which places a high value on undersized, speedy center field types.” Since Pipeline tends to value current production and proximity to the majors more than Baseball America, it makes sense to rank Williams higher than Platt.
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For what it’s worth, the “short” thing feels like a weird inclusion to me. With the exception of Caleb Durbin (who is not typically the Brewers’ center fielder), the Brewers are not that short of options in the middle infield and center field. Joey Ortiz is 5-foot-10, Brice Turang is 5-foot-11, and Jackson Chourio and Blake Perkins are both 6-foot. Garrett Mitchell has a height of 6 feet 2 inches. Milwaukee didn’t trade Williams because he was undersized (5-foot-6); they traded him because they valued a player who was fast, athletic, defensive, and able to get on base.
100. Brandon Sprott (BA No. 81)
Pipeline’s Mr. Irrelevant is a prime pitch lab candidate. Sproat has great stuff; Pipeline gives him a 60-grade slider and a 55-grade curveball and changeup. He’s ranked so low because he struggled in Triple-A last year (4.24 ERA) and didn’t make any progress pitching in four games with the Mets in September (4.79 ERA despite throwing 17 K’s in 20 2/3 innings pitched). He is also 25 years old and will be 26 by next year’s playoffs.
The Sproat acquisition gave me Quinn Priester vibes. Both were highly drafted prospects with great talent who underperformed their first time in the major leagues. Priest had a great season with the Milwaukee Bucks last year. Hopefully Sproat can do the same. If any team could get the most out of him, it’s the Brewers.
As I said in my Baseball America article, I’ll have a detailed analysis of Williams and Sproat coming soon…stay tuned.
