The ACC’s nightmare is about to become a reality. The conference could miss the College Football Playoff entirely.
Duke defeated No. 17 Virginia 27-20 in overtime in the ACC championship game on Saturday night to give the Blue Devils their first conference title since 1962. But with Duke currently sitting at 8-5 and unlikely to make Sunday’s College Football Playoff rankings, the reality is that no ACC team will make the 12-team field.
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The playoffs consist of the five highest-ranked conference championship teams and the seven major teams. Duke is unranked in Tuesday’s rankings, trailing the highest-ranked teams in the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC. In addition, Conference USA champion Tulane University and Sun Belt Conference champion James Madison are also on the list. They will also remain ranked.
Since those five conferences will receive automatic berths, the ACC’s only hope depends on the committee’s forbearance. No. 19 Alabama lost to No. 3 Georgia in the SEC championship game, and No. 11 BYU lost to No. 4 Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. Will that be enough to get Miami into the top 10 and earn membership in the ACC? Or will Miami, which beat Notre Dame in Week 2, leapfrog the 10th-ranked Fighting Irish for the final at-large spot despite neither team playing Saturday?
When 12 teams compete in the postseason, it’s hard to imagine one of the four top teams missing out on the playoffs entirely. The only possible scenario is essentially what has happened in the ACC so far this season. The league probably doesn’t have a team that’s good enough to be an at-large, and the conference champion isn’t a team that’s had a brutal time outside of ACC play.
Duke is 6-2 in the ACC but 1-3 outside the conference. The Blue Devils have lost non-conference games to Illinois, Tulane and UConn, but are in a five-way tie for second place behind Virginia based on opponents’ winning percentage. Duke’s opponents have better conference records than their counterparts at SMU, Miami, Pitt and Georgia Tech. All four teams are tied with Duke for second place.
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Miami lost to Louisville and Southern Methodist University in the conference round. Georgia Tech lost to North Carolina State and Pitt in the final month of the season. If the Hurricanes or Yellow Jackets win any of those four games, that potential scenario won’t arise in the ACC.
Duke head coach Manny Diaz said after the game that his team is a playoff-caliber team. But it’s hard to imagine the committee thinking the same way.
How Duke Wins
Virginia (10-3) tied the game with 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter when Eli Wood caught the ball after being pushed out of bounds.
But as overtime began, Duke scored its fourth touchdown on a pass from Darian Mensah to Jeremiah Halsey and a roughing penalty on the passer in the game allowed the Cavaliers to start the offense at their own 40-yard line instead of the 25-yard line.
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Did this field position affect Virginia’s thought process? The Cavaliers started the game with a trickery that ended when quarterback Chandler Morris was intercepted by Duke’s Luke Murgot.
Mensah completed 19 of 25 passes for 196 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He comes to Duke from Tulane, a team that made the College Football Playoff after winning the Conference USA and scoring 30 touchdowns in the 2025 season.
Mensah completed 19 of 25 passes for 196 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He comes to Duke from Tulane, a team that made the College Football Playoff after winning the Conference USA and scoring 30 touchdowns in the 2025 season.
Morris completed 21 of 40 passes for 216 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Virginia beat the Blue Devils on Saturday night, but they fell short of overtime magic for just the fourth time in 2025. Virginia defeated Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina in overtime to advance to the ACC Championship Game 3-0.