March is quickly approaching and teams are eager to get to the big dance while others try to climb as high as possible in terms of seeding. We have some landmark games to determine the regular season champion, like St. Mary’s at Gonzaga, and St. John’s needs to win to secure a spot in the Big East. Here are my top bets for Saturday, February 28, with odds given by Draft king. Good luck!
Alabama at Tennessee (-5.5): O/U 162.5
Alabama lost to Tennessee 79-73 at home as a -3.5-point favorite and is now a +4.5 to +5.5-point underdog in Tennessee’s road game, which is a big swing in the odds.
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However, Bama did not Amari Allen (12.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.4 APG) or Aden Holloway in that game (16.9 points, 4.1 assists). Both are healthy and performing well of late. Allen has scored at least 16 points in three straight games and has grabbed six or more rebounds in six of the last seven games. Holloway has scored in double figures in eight consecutive games and scored 16 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds in the last game.
Those two bodies will help Alabama get revenge in what will be the first physical game of the game. Bama led at halftime (39-36), but then the game slipped away from them. I think they can win this time, so I’ll lower the +5.5 score to +4.5.
In February, Alabama’s offense ranked No. 7 nationally and Tennessee ranked No. 38 – the Vols have a big advantage on defense (15th vs. 110th), but the Vols also play an easier schedule. Bama’s 2-field shooting percentage increased by nearly 10% this month, and its 3-field field goal percentage increased by 7%. I would choose Tide.
Pick: Alabama +5.5 (1 unit)
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St. Mary’s Gonzaga (-1.5): O/U 142.5
This game works with all marbles in WCC. If Gonzaga wins, they will be the WCC regular season champions, and if St. Mary’s wins, the Gaels will be the regular season champions, which is why the odds line is likely so low. This is also the last regular season meeting as a WCC opponent. Gonzaga will move to a new Pac-12 next year.
These two teams met on January 31, with Gonzaga winning 73-65 and becoming a -8.5 point favorite at home. The Bulldogs are now -1.5 points on the road, which is a huge turnaround. I think Gonzaga is clearly the better team this year, St. Mary’s won the WCC last season, which isn’t too surprising since Gonzaga has been a bit down this year, but the Bulldogs are much better than they were last year.
St. Mary’s has been No. 15 since they met. Bart Tovik Gonzaga ranks 19th and ranks in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This will be a good game, but for the last time, I’m going to go with Gonzaga on the ML at a reasonable price of -130.
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Pick: GonzagaML (1 unit)
BYU (-1.5) West Virginia: O/U 141.5
BYU trailed UCF by 36 points at one point and essentially sleepwalked through the first half of this embarrassing loss. Now, they go to West Virginia as a short-term favorite, which I think is a mispricing. BYU is definitely the better team, but will they put in the effort? I think so.
WVU has lost three straight games and missed the NCAA tournament. According to Barttorvik, WVU is ranked No. 165 during its three-game losing streak. During this losing streak, they ranked 356th in defensive rebounding percentage, 290th in offensive three-point field goal percentage (29.3%), and 265th in defensive three-point field goal percentage (38.2%). The Mountaineers also shoot 65 percent from the line (352nd) at home, and after a 13-0 start at home, they lost their final three games to Baylor, Texas Tech and Utah.
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BYU’s 3-point shooting and defense have been basically equally bad during this stretch, so whoever shoots better from 3 will have the upper hand. The Cougars can’t afford another bad loss, and in my opinion, this is one of them. I’ll take BYU over the ML because WVU is 1-4 in its last 5 games and is already outside the bubble.
Pick: Brigham Young University ML (1 unit)
Wisconsin (-1.5) at Washington: O/U 153.5
Washington beat Ohio State at home and Oregon at home Nate Bit This was their best win of the season, and it’s not enough to make me think they’ll beat Wisconsin at home. Yes, Wisconsin lost its last game at Oregon State and is on a West Coast road trip, but I think the Badgers are in a good position to bounce back.
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Washington does not Frank Kepnan and JJ Mandaquiat This could have been a problem in the last game, especially with their center Jiawu. Wisconsin shot 14-for-45 from 3-point range against Oregon State, so I expect them to attack the paint more against Washington and that the Huskies won’t force turnovers and get the ball to themselves. On top of that, Washington is 2-4 in its last six games, beating Minnesota and Rutgers, the Big Ten’s bottom two teams.
Pick: Wisconsin ML (1 unit)
Villanova at St. John’s (-7.5): O/U 146.5
St. John’s was defeated by UConn in one of the most embarrassing shooting performances of the season, and now the Big East regular-season title and No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament are in jeopardy.
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The Red Storm must win, their biggest test remaining, with Georgetown and Seton Hall still on the schedule. Villanova had a surprising performance from Kevin Willard, but they couldn’t keep up with St. John’s in their first game as a home team.
The Wildcats’ largest lead in that game was only 4 points, and the Johnnies led by 17 points in the second half. St. John’s was the road favorite -2 points and won 86-79. After losing to St. John’s, I think we’ll see the Red Storm and Villanova focus on going 0-4 against St. John’s and UConn. The Wildcats are a 68% free throw shooting team, 32.5% from 3-point range this month (240th), and have a below-par rebounding rate. I like St. John’s and after going from -5.5 to -7.5 for the entire game, I’d like to play the first half as a -2.5 or -3 spread.
Be sure to check it out Draft king Get all the latest game odds and player props for every game on this week’s NCAA basketball schedule!
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