Trading volume for Circle’s USDC surpassed Tether’s USDT for the first time since 2019, prompting Japanese investment bank Mizuho to raise its price target on the stablecoin issuer to $120 from $100 while reiterating its neutral rating on the stock.
The stock was up 1% in early trading at $115.40, up about 95% from its February low.
Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins raised their forecasts for Circle, citing “use cases such as USDC activity trends and Polymarket or proxy business expectations.”
Stablecoins are digital tokens backed by fiat currencies or reserves such as gold and are a key payments and settlement rail in the crypto-economy, particularly in transactions and cross-border transfers. The industry is dominated by Tether’s USDT, with a market capitalization of $143 billion, followed by Circle’s USDC, with a market capitalization of $78 billion.
According to Friday’s report, USDC’s adjusted trading volume has reached approximately $2.2 trillion so far in 2026, compared with USDT’s $1.3 trillion. This leaves USDC with approximately 64% share of adjusted trading volume, a sharp reversal from 2019-2025 when Tether continued to lead, with USDC’s average share being approximately 30%.
Analysts say this shift is important because the long-term winner of stablecoins may depend on actual economic usage, not just market capitalization. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the market value of stablecoins will reach US$2 trillion by the end of 2028.
Mizuho analysts put forward several long-term Circle forecasts, reflecting strong USDC activity and expanding use cases. They now expect there to be 11.7 million “meaningful wallets” by 2027, up from a previous estimate of 10 million, helping to boost USDC’s projected market capitalization from $123 billion to $139 billion.
Circle has outperformed other cryptocurrency-related stocks recently.
William Blair analysts said in a report Thursday that while the recent gains could easily be tied to higher oil prices and a potentially more hawkish Fed, other factors may be driving the move.
Instead, they note that USDC’s market capitalization remains resilient despite the general crypto market downturn, as well as growing investor recognition of the Circle economic model and its leadership in stablecoin infrastructure.
Other analysts have pointed out that the recent rise in share prices has been driven by a position-driven short squeeze rather than fundamentals.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said that while the company’s USDC supply has grown strongly, the stock’s huge post-earnings reaction was more due to the large number of short bets on the upcoming publication than strong financials.
Read more: Bullish Wall Street analysts say Circle’s outperformance highlights USDC’s staying power
