Market maker Enflux said Bitcoin’s rally to $70,000 (it was trading at $68,000 at midday in Hong Kong) appeared to be driven more by positioning than belief. The move largely reflects short covering after traders turned bearish on geopolitical headlines, the firm said.
“The market isn’t pricing in a disaster, but it’s not pricing in a solution either,” Enflux wrote in a note to CoinDesk. “Bitcoin rushed towards $63,000 over the weekend as bears favored Iran headlines, and the crunch began when the escalation didn’t immediately escalate into a broader regional war affecting the Gulf and Dubai trade corridors.”
Enflux added that cryptocurrencies tend to react faster than traditional assets during geopolitical shocks.
“When the bombs drop or sanctions tighten, capital looks for ways to exit. In times of uncertainty, Bitcoin becomes a pressure valve,” the firm wrote.
Institutional demand remains an important source of support. The BTC ETF has attracted approximately $1.45 billion in net inflows over the past five trading days.
Following another big day yesterday, baby boomers came to the rescue again as the Bitcoin ETF recorded $150 million in inflows over the past 5 days. Biggest gains in some time, almost all of the original 10 spot ETFs also saw action = breadth and depth. This comes after a 50% (!) loss and mostly underwater. pic.twitter.com/eF0VJqiPZ0
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 3, 2026
On-chain and derivatives indicators suggest the market is stabilizing but has yet to regain firm conviction.
Glassnode wrote in a recent report that momentum indicators are starting to recover from recent weakness, with Bitcoin’s relative strength index rising to around 41 from 36 the previous week, but still below the neutral 50 level, indicating stronger bullish control.
Spot market conditions have also improved. Trading volume has climbed to about $9.6 billion from $6.6 billion in the previous week, while buy and sell flow in the spot market has become more balanced, suggesting that an earlier wave of aggressive selling has begun to ease.
Derivatives markets remain cautious. Glassnode said the cost of holding leveraged long positions has fallen significantly, while futures trading still shows sellers dominating buyers, suggesting leveraged traders remain cautious.
Prediction markets reflect the same cooling of belief: the probability of Bitcoin falling to $65,000 fell 11 percentage points to 73% in March, and the probability of $60,000 fell 10 percentage points to 41%, while another Polymarket contract showed that the probability of Bitcoin hitting $60,000 before $80,000 also weakened, slipping 12 percentage points to 61%.
Taken together, these data suggest that Bitcoin has found support for now, but traders are still hesitant to price in a decisive bounce or a deeper sell-off.
