With just over a week left in March, Bitcoin is on track to avoid a historic losing streak. The asset is up about 2% this month, holding above $68,000. However, a late pullback would result in Bitcoin closing lower for six consecutive months, matching the longest consecutive downward trend on record, which last occurred between August 2018 and January 2019.
From a technical perspective, the 200-week moving average (200WMA) remains the key level to watch. This indicator tracks Bitcoin’s long-term trend through the average of the past 200 weeks of closing prices, and has historically acted as a strong support during bear markets.
In the current cycle, the 200WMA is located near $59,000. Bitcoin fell to as low as $60,000 in early February and has since consolidated above that level for nearly two months, indicating continued strength at this key support level. It is worth noting that the 2022 bear market remains the only cycle in which Bitcoin stayed below the 200WMA for an extended period from June to December.
In addition to U.S. dollar price action, Bitcoin is also starting to show strength relative to gold. Bitcoin’s ratio to gold is currently around 16 ounces and is on track to post a monthly candle against gold for the first time in eight months. Meanwhile, gold prices recently fell to $4,000, falling 5% on the day and currently trading near $4,200. The current price of gold has fallen by more than 25% from its historical high in January, and its market value has evaporated by US$7.5 trillion.
Historically, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has seen smaller declines from the peak in each cycle. During this cycle, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 71% against gold from its all-time high in December 2024. These peak-to-trough cycles typically last around 400 days, suggesting the current downturn may exceed this ratio.
If Bitcoin is able to maintain support above the 200WMA while regaining strength relative to gold, it would reinforce the view that the broader uptrend remains intact.
