Bitcoin’s The recent decline may feel ominous, but K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde said December could mark a turning point for cryptocurrencies. After the biggest correction since the last bear market, the firm sees more evidence for a rebound than another crash.
Bitcoin has been dragged down by a wave of sell-offs, much of which is structural. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), once the market’s largest buyers, turned net sellers in November. CME futures activity has fallen to multi-year lows, signaling indecision on the part of TradFi. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has underperformed stocks, reaching its lowest level since late 2024 against the Nasdaq.
But K33 believes the market is overreacting to distant threats and ignoring strong recent signals. “The case for material upside is far more reasonable than a repeat of the 80% retracement,” the firm wrote in its December outlook.
They pointed to several factors. First, Bitcoin is trading close to strong historical support around $70,000 to $80,000, while the broader positioning of futures remains cautious and not overheated. Perpetual markets are less leveraged and despite price pressure, large-scale liquidations have yet to materialize.
Long-term concerns, such as quantum computing risks, Strategy’s (MSTR) potential Bitcoin sale, or Tether’s instability, may sound serious, but are unlikely to happen anytime soon. K33 notes that each of these threats will take years to pose a real risk and should not be driving today’s price movements.
Instead, the company believes the focus should be on near-term prospects. With supportive policy changes on the horizon, including possible 401(k) access to cryptocurrencies and a shift in the Fed’s support for cryptocurrencies, K33 sees structural upside building. They say Bitcoin’s current valuation reflects more fear than fundamentals.
At present, the market remains cautious. But the K33’s prospects suggest December may provide a window for bold positioning.