Bitcoin is trading around $66,600 as the long weekend keeps potential buyers away and bears have more control over the price movement.
With CME futures and ETF flows set to pause on Good Friday, the market is facing a liquidity gap while its most reliable source of support is already waning.
Bitcoin’s $65,000 support level is starting to look tenuous, as the most active buyers in the market are actually the most dependent on macroeconomics. In a recent report, CryptoQuant data showed apparent 30-day demand was around -63,000 BTC, even as ETF and corporate buying climbed to multi-month highs, while Singapore-based market maker Enflux told CoinDesk in a note that the price floor was “partly supported by expectations of a rate cut.”
ETF purchases have increased to approximately 50,000 BTC in the past 30 days, the highest level since October 2025, while Strategy has purchased approximately 44,000 BTC cumulatively over the same period. However, overall demand remained negative, with selling from other players overwhelming inflows.
CryptoQuant wrote in a recent report that this pressure is most evident among large shareholders. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have shifted to net allocations, with their one-year balance change falling to approximately minus 188,000 BTC from a positive 200,000 BTC at the 2024 cycle peak. Accumulation by mid-cap holders has also slowed significantly, while the Coinbase premium remains negative, pointing to weak U.S. spot demand.
The result is that increased institutional activity in the market is not translating into stronger price support. As more capital moves into ETF wrappers and regulated futures markets, Bitcoin is increasingly priced through macro-sensitive positioning such as hedging and allocation transfers, rather than broad spot accumulation.
That positioning is now being tested by inflation data, Enflux writes. The ISM price index jumped to 78.3 in March, the highest level since June 2022, weakening expectations for a near-term interest rate cut. Enflux said repricing has begun to show up in capital flows, with net ETF outflows of $296 million in the week of March 24 and moderate capital inflows in early April.
The long weekend removes a key stabilizing factor. With the CME closed and ETF creation and redemption suspended, the institutional buying that increasingly anchored Bitcoin prices will largely disappear, and trading will shift to the spot market where selling pressure is most persistent.
CryptoQuant said any mitigating rally is likely to face resistance between roughly $71,500 and $81,200, levels that capped previous rallies within the current bear market structure.
U.S. inflation data on April 9 will provide a broader test. If March core PCE exceeds February’s 3.1%, rate cut expectations may weaken further, strengthening the bearish case for Bitcoin.
