Bitcoin The pair tested $76,000 for the third consecutive day, trading at $75,440, as bullish traders continued to reduce $450 million in sell orders between $75,900 and $76,300, CoinGlass data showed.
These orders will be placed by traders trying to short the range high in anticipation of a recovery back to around $68,000, as well as those defensive of the breakout and at risk of liquidation.
U.S. stocks surged to a record high on Thursday as the war with Iran appeared to be ending following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
Cryptocurrency markets have outperformed stocks since the war began, but have now taken a backseat.
Derivatives positioning
- Activity in the cryptocurrency futures market has picked up, with Bitcoin briefly topping $76,000 during European trading hours. Total market volume rose 28% to $225.8 billion, while open interest (OI) edged up more than 1.5% to $126.68 billion.
- More notably, total liquidations surged 140% to $529 million, with slightly more short positions than long positions, indicating a mild short squeeze and upward pressure building.
- Solana’s SOL leads the growth of OI among the largest cryptocurrencies. Within 24 hours, the number of active contracts in Solana futures increased by 11% to 5.53 billion SOL, the highest level since March 18. Dogecoin is another bright spot, with OI hovering at a six-month high of 14.17 billion DOGE.
- Capital inflows into SOL appear to be driven by rising interest in bullish positions, with positive funding rates and 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) pointing to increasingly strong buying pressure.
- Signs for Dogecoin remain mixed, as positive CVD indicates buying pressure, while slightly negative funding rates point to lingering bearish sentiment among derivatives traders.
- Cardano’s ADA leads on an OI adjusted CVD basis, indicating that buyers are dominant and bullish.
- The volatility collapse continues, indicating calm in the market and supporting further bullish price action. BTC’s 30-day Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) has fallen to 43.35%, a 2.5-month low. The Ethereum index EVIV is hovering near recent lows around 65%.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH options continue to show a bearish bias, a sign of lingering downside concerns. Overall, the market looks poised for gains but is not yet willing to go full bullish.
token talk
- Altcoins lagged behind Bitcoin on Friday as traders awaited a potential breakout or rejection before making speculative bets.
- The Bitcoin-focused CoinDesk 5 (CD5) index is up 0.8% since midnight UTC, while the altcoin-focused CoinDesk 100 (CD100) is slightly in the red.
- The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) was the worst-performing benchmark, down about 2.8%, as some coins gave back much of Thursday’s gains.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator sits at 37/100, which is neutral territory after hitting 53/100 last month and 19/100 in February.
- While the broader altcoin market is in the doldrums, a small segment of the market is outperforming; KAS is up 3.9%, while PENDLE and AERO are up 3.5% and 2.5% respectively.
