Spring training is in full swing, and some players’ ADPs have changed dramatically as a result. Whether it’s injury news, role changes, positive coaching words or solid exhibition games, we need to know how draft boards are changing and why.
Here are the top 200 picks with the biggest impact on ADP
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Note: all ADP data provided by NFBC
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ADP riser
Connor Griffin, SS Pittsburgh Pirates
February 1st – February 12th ADP: 197
February 13-February 27 ADP: 184
It’s happening. Overall outlook first Connor Griffin His draft stock is starting to climb after a huge two-homer game against the Red Sox on Tuesday.
The second pitch traveled 440 feet with an exit velocity of 111.2 mph, and it felt like the entire baseball world had been talking about Griffin ever since. More than a million impressions provided by Jeff Passan can do that, but Griffin’s talent deserves all the praise he receives.
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Last season was his first in professional baseball after being drafted ninth overall in 2024 out of high school.
He posted a Low-A slash line of .338 // .396 // .536 with nine homers and 26 stolen bases in 50 games. He then made the jump to High-A, not missing a beat with a .325 // .432 // .510 slash line, seven homers, and 33 stolen bases in 51 games. For good measure, he finished the Double-A season with a .337 // .418 // .542 slash line, with five home runs and six stolen bases in 21 games.
Those flashy statistics are backed by the elites Batting data (only tracked in Low-A) Griffin’s maximum exit velocity was 114.2 mph, with eight bats over 110 mph and 28 over 105 mph. For someone who couldn’t legally buy beer yet, this was earth-shattering raw power.
There was never an adjustment period or any kind of long-term recession. In his age-19 season, he was absolutely dominant at all three levels. This is indeed Griffin Knocking on the door to make Buccaneers’ Opening Day roster Only 20 years old. If the Buccaneers plan to field their best lineup in all 162 games, Griffin should back them up from the start.
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In fantasy baseball, being risk-averse usually pays off. That means avoiding overhyping rookies and flashy prospects when they first enter the league. But Griffin seems to be an exception.
This combination of power, speed, production and performance is rarely seen. General physical fitness Coming from such a young player.
Julio Rodriguez and Ronald Acuña Jr.. are two players who come to mind as backups, and both returned close to first-round value as rookies. Bobby Witt Jr. Not even a “great” first season In line with most people’s expectations and still is 5×5 Player ranked 28th overall in the league Totaled 50 home runs and steals.
If Griffin has a 50/50 chance of making the Buccaneers’ Opening Day roster, his ADP at around pick 180 is too low. If we officially announce that he will be drafted, he could potentially be among the top 50 players (or higher) by the end of March. He’s just that good.
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Otherwise, the prospect Carson Benge (409 → 359 ADP), Kevin McGonigle (319→295), Andrew Painter (338→314), Robbie Snelling (333 → 314), and Jordan Laurel (362 → 340) ADP has also risen over the past two weeks, with good performance or positive news this spring.
Trevor Rogers, SP Baltimore Orioles
February 1st – February 12th ADP: 178
February 13-February 27 ADP: 164
There are no more divided players in the pool right now than Trevor Rogers.
After a huge bounce-back season with a 1.81 ERA in 109 2/3 innings, the market still barely sees him as a top-50 starting pitcher. Technically, that’s still the case – Rogers has been off the board as SP45 for the past two weeks – he’s just now more closely aligned with a more exciting class.
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He slightly surpassed the veteran Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo right behind Trey Yesavich, bubba chandler, Nathan Eovaldiand Drew Rasmussen.
Lately, he’s gotten closer to the next group: Mackenzie Gore, Shota Imagaand rangers suarez.
It’s a subtle shift, and one that Rodgers appears to have resisted with his performance so far this spring. In two appearances, he pitched five innings, struck out six batters, allowed two hits, walked no bases, and gave up no ERA. His stuff looks crispy too.
Seeing him return to the mound and dominate again gave managers the confidence last year that wasn’t entirely a fluke. Perhaps more importantly, Rodgers’ fastball is clocked at 93 mph. That’s a bounce back to last season’s level after a slight dip the year before, which played a big role in both his pitching efficiency and his confidence to throw more pitches.
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Regaining confidence on his fastball is key to Rodgers’ resurgence, and being comfortably close to average now could mean he’ll gain momentum again as he enters the season. This is one of those important times in spring training for players, and the market tells us that.
Griffin Jax, RP Tampa Bay Rays
February 1st – February 12th ADP: 217
February 13-February 27 ADP: 198
Savings are minimal. Therefore, there comes a point in most drafts where managers turn to relievers whose skills they trust, regardless of whether they qualify as full-time closers.
Griffin Jax His strikeout rate over the past two seasons is as high as 34.7%, which fits that bill. 2.45 ERA prediction through OOPSY. Meanwhile, Reyles’ agent Kevin Cash was noncommittal about appointing a closer and seemed in favor of using a committee.
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Maybe Jax’s ADP around No. 200 is still a little too rich and will never account for the majority of the team’s save opportunities.
The other three relievers in the range are Abner Uribe from the brewery, Robert Suarez Now with the Braves, and Brian Abreu On the Astros.
Suarez is easily the oldest of the group and the hitter with the fewest strikeouts. He also has no way to finish when the current terminator is injured or severely ineffective. Raisel Iglesias. Suarez is one of the strangest ADPs at the moment.
Uribe and Abreu are a better combination for Jax. They would both strike out a ton of batters and end up at elite rates, with the exception of Abreu’s WHIP, as walk issues were a constant. The pair also spent much of last year preparing for Elite Finishers.
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However, while Jaquez was traded to Tampa Bay and continued to play, Uribe and Abreu served as injured reserves and each had strong performances at the end of the game. Trevor Megill and Josh Haderrespectively.
Jaquez might have more guarantees of making a dozen saves as a part-time closer — similar to how the Twins will use him in 2024 — while Uribe and Abreu might have more obvious ceilings as full-time closers, and the bottom line might be more obvious as clear-cut playmakers who don’t see any save opportunities.
This is an interesting place to be for relievers at this stage of the draft.
ADP Decliners
Jordan Westburg, 3B Baltimore Orioles
February 1st – February 12th ADP: 122
February 13-February 27 ADP: 235
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For the second consecutive spring training, Jordan Westerberg injured. Last year, a hamstring strain lingered throughout the first half. Now he has a UCL suffers a partial tear that will keep him out for at least April There is no clear timetable for a return.
This is frustrating for a talented player like Westburg, who could be facing another freak season after playing only 85 games last season and 107 games last season.
He has been sidelined since August 2024 with further complications from a broken hand, a strained back, an undisclosed injury, a severe hamstring strain, a sprained finger, a sprained finger, a sprained ankle and now a partially torn ligament in his elbow. There are also reports that, Tilt strain when the camp first opened That has been put on hold.
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Sadly, it’s time to officially label him “injury-prone.” Some of these injuries are just bad luck, but there are still so many soft tissue issues that persist. Now, if PRP injections and rehab don’t heal his UCL enough to compete, he could face Tommy John surgery.
Even if he does, he’ll likely be demoted to designated hitter to avoid putting more stress on his elbow. Again, that’s assuming he comes back. Currently the only formats worth choosing are those with multiple IL positions. If you do catch him, be ready to stop the bait when we get more bad news.
Josh Hader, RP Astros
ADP from February 1 to February 12: 82
February 13-February 27 ADP: 108
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some ominous reports Josh Hader’s The health condition caused his ADP to drop significantly.
He missed the final six weeks of last season Shoulder strain. As is the case with Astros players, not many other details were revealed. As the offseason begins, reports that all is well He will come into spring training healthy.
Then, some Sudden biceps inflammation at start of training camp Now weeks have passed and he still doesn’t have a timetable when he can play.
This is all very strange and will continue to push Hader’s draft stock further down until we get some clarification.
Meanwhile, his replacement last season, Brian Abreu (244 → 221 ADP), is pushing his progress and was a strong performance for April’s save at worst. At best, he could be a full-time closer on a solid team with elite skills.
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Pablo López, SP Minnesota Twins
February 1st – February 12th ADP: 150
February 13-February 27 ADP: 585
This one is very simple: Pablo Lopez About to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire season. It’s a cruel blow for Lopez, who missed most of last season with a shoulder strain after three straight healthy seasons. Now, the road back is still long.
His injury will free up more room in the Twins’ rotation Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthewsand Mick Abell to get a chance. Bradley and Abel have impressed in their first spring outings, and all three have the tools to make them successful at the major league level.
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Spencer Schwerenbach, Reese Olsonand Heston Waldrep Both are also undergoing surgeries and falling down draft boards as a result. Schwellenbach is the only guy in this group who has a chance to play this season, just don’t spend any real draft capital hoping he does.
