Zillow revises its home price forecast across over 400 housing markets—see the map

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Zillow economists just released their latest 12-month forecast, predicting that U.S. home prices (as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index) will rise 0.9% between January 2026 and January 2027.

This is a slight downward revision from the 12-month forecast (+2.1%) released last month.

According to the latest data, U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, rose 0.2%. Zillow’s latest forecast predicts prices will remain close to that pace.

While Zillow’s national home price forecast isn’t negative, it’s not entirely optimistic either. They call for a softening in the national housing market in 2026, with housing affordability nationwide likely to improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth.

What types of regional changes does Zillow expect to see in 2026?

Among the 300 largest metropolitan housing markets in the U.S., Zillow expects the largest home price gains between January 2026 and January 2027 to occur in these 15 metropolitan areas:

1. Rockford, IL → 5.4%

2. Atlantic City, NJ → 4.8%

3. Syracuse, NY → 4.4%

4. Knoxville, TN → 4.3%

5. Hartford, CT → 4.1%

6. Norwich, CT → 4.1%

7. Green Bay, Wisconsin → 4.0%

8. Morristown, TN → 4.0%

9. Rochester, NY → 3.9%

10. New Haven, CT → 3.9%

11. Concord, New Hampshire → 3.9%

12. Pottsville, PA → 3.9%

13. Appleton, Wisconsin → 3.8%

14. Wausau, Wisconsin → 3.8%

15. Janesville, Wisconsin → 3.7%

Among the 300 largest U.S. metro housing markets, Zillow expects the largest home price declines between January 2026 and January 2027 to occur in these 15 metro areas:

1. Houma, Louisiana → -6.5%

2. Lake Charles, Louisiana → -5.6%

3. New Orleans, Louisiana → -4.1%

4. Lafayette, Louisiana → -3.0%

5. Alexandria, Louisiana → -3.0%

6. Austin, Texas → -2.9%

7. Chico, CA → -2.9%

8. Shreveport, Louisiana → -2.8%

9. Beaumont, Texas → -2.7%

10. San Antonio, Texas → -2.0%

11. Boulder, Colorado → -2.0%

12. Punta Gorda, FL -2.0%

13. Denver, Colorado → -1.9%

14. Corpus Christi, Texas → -1.8%

15. Texarkana, Texas → -1.8%

U.S. home prices are currently up 0.01% year-over-year, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index. If Zillow’s latest 12-month outlook (+2.0%) holds true, that would represent a slight acceleration nationwide.

Here are the current year-over-year growth rates for single-family homes and condos. The Sun Belt, especially Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of a weak housing market.

With mortgage rates down slightly from cycle highs, home prices falling in some markets, and incomes continuing to rise (at least faster than U.S. home prices), housing affordability will be less stressful in the spring of 2026 than in the spring of 2025.

In fact, a new analysis from Zillow shows that a middle-income American household can now afford a home for $331,483, an increase of $30,302 from last year.

“In addition to improving affordability, it also reflects the continued recovery in inventory, with 6% more homes on the market in January than a year ago. The nearly 447,000 homes now affordable to middle-income households accounted for 40.3% of listings, up from 34.8% a year ago,” Zillow economist Kara Ng wrote. “In a market where home prices are falling, buyers are actually tighter on money with today’s lower mortgage rates.”

This article originally appeared on fastcompany.com
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