With the 2025-26 Marquette men’s basketball season in the past Wednesday night following an 89-87 loss to Xavier in the first round of the Big East Tournament, our eyes turn to the future of head coach Shaka Smart and the program he directs. This is going to be a very interesting offseason, and we already know that’s the case because Smart and athletic director Mike Broeker have released the message to the world via TNT Sports broadcasts.
But before we get started, I want to make a point about Smart’s tenure as head coach that I’ve been thinking about in my head for over a minute.
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When it comes to general guidelines for success in Marquette men’s basketball, my bottom line is “make the NCAA Tournament every year.” The positive side of this line is that every now and then, you catch lightning in a bottle and you’re competing for the Big East championship, ranked in the top 10 nationally and considered a national championship contender. This is a rare case and not an expectation. When you’re playing 68 games year after year, that’s going to happen to you from time to time.
However, “going to the NCAA tournament every year” doesn’t mean I’m a “if you miss it, this season is a total failure” hardliner. Just as you’ll often rise to the top of the rankings, there will be an occasional year where something happens to you that causes you to miss out. You’re just stuck outside the bubble because your point guard is out for six weeks in the middle of the season and you end up being ranked in the top four of Sunday’s draft. Heck, things happen, not every season is perfect, etc. Nothing to really worry about, come back next year, etc.
The 2025-26 season is the first season since Shaka Smart was hired at Marquette University that he will not coach in the NCAA tournament. His first team wasn’t expected to be a No. 9 seed, then back-to-back No. 2 seeds, the two best seeds in program history, and then a No. 7 seed a year ago. This season was his first without him, and the Golden Eagles finished the season with a 12-20 record and were effectively eliminated from tournament contention before New Year’s Day.
Shaka Smart’s absence from the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive time in March 2027 should mean the end of Shaka Smart’s tenure as Marquette University head coach.
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This season has been very, very bad. Something about that – Sean Jones’ health! –beyond Shaka Smart’s control. Something about that – Caedin Hamilton made 17 starts! Zad Lowery quits the team! The team’s three-point shooting percentage is less than 32%! ——More under Smart’s control. The end result of all of this is that Marquette played the final two months of the season with everyone knowing the NCAA Tournament was out of reach, and the fact that a 7-13 record in league play was better than anyone expected after an 0-4 start didn’t fix that.
This is not a “Oh my gosh, we missed the NCAA tournament by one game” season. This is a “season may be over by December 1st” season. If we were sitting here after the loss to Xavier and saying “Let’s keep our fingers crossed for Sunday!” then things could have continued the way Smart has been doing thus far. We are not. My thinking is this: If a season of “oh, shot, just missed” is worth a pass, then this season is good enough to count as two of those “oh, that was so close!” Seasons wrapped together.
To use our sports metaphor: That’s a double whammy for Smart. Third strike and you’re out.
The message in TNT Sports’ sideline report that “the roster will evolve” makes it clear that Smart knows this, or if he doesn’t believe his job will be in jeopardy next season, then he hates what happened this season just as much as the average Marquette fan does, and he doesn’t want to experience it again. Over the next seven and a half months, every piece of news we receive about the men’s basketball program needs to be filtered through the lens of “Shaka Smart is trying to keep his job” because that needs to be the urgency of everything.
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To be clear, I’m not saying the next game Shaka Smart misses will be the end of his time in Milwaukee. If there’s a 19-13 season in 2031 and missed after four straight tournament appearances, well, that’s fine too. Proof of concept received, let’s look back to 2032.
But what about next year? What if any of Shaka Smart’s efforts to make next year’s roster fail? It’s time for Marquette to move on before things get worse.
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