XRP price is in a dangerous position. XRP is trading at around $1.89, just 1% above the key breakdown area. On the surface, the chart looks calm. Beneath this, there are some signals that risks are quietly building. What’s unusual about this setup isn’t just the proximity of the support. This is something that hasn’t happened before.
XRP has been sending out bullish signals recently, which usually leads to at least a short-term rally. This time, it barely moved. That failure was the real warning.
Between December 31st and January 20th, XRP price formed a hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart. Prices are making higher lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making lower lows.
Hidden bullish divergence usually indicates that selling pressure is subsiding and buyers may soon regain control. It does not guarantee a rebound, but it usually results in a rebound or at least a period of upside relief.
But that didn’t happen here.
XRP is barely moving higher after a divergence. Prices stagnated and momentum never gained momentum. This tells us something important. Sellers may have slowed down, but buyers haven’t stepped in to replace them.
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This type of divergence failure often occurs in weak markets. It shows hesitation, not strength. When a bullish signal fails, it usually means a lack of demand, not a faulty signal.
The rising XRP wedge structure still suggests a 25% drop is possible if support is broken. With buyers absent and sellers slowly regaining control, XRP is approaching a point where even a modest downward move could trigger a larger move.
Also, if buyers don’t show up when selling pressure eases, what happens when sellers return?
The answer starts with capital flows.
XRP-related ETF products recorded net outflows for the first time in weeks. Outflows totaled about $40.5 million in the week ended January 23. This comes after a long period of steady inflows, which resulted in a noticeable shift in behavior.
ETF flows are important because they reflect large amounts of directed capital. When inflows stop and turn negative, it usually means institutional demand is pausing or falling back.
On-chain data tells a similar story.
The XRP Hodler Net Position Change indicator, which tracks the monthly balance changes of long-term holders, has flattened and started to decline. On January 20, long-term holders controlled approximately 232.1 million XRP. As of January 24, this number has dropped to approximately 231.55 million XRP.
