There was a time in the not-too-distant past when the game was for viewing by appointment only for humans, and not just for a few die-hards. Chris Mack’s last two years and Sean Miller’s first year were both good Xavier teams and good Marquette teams playing in big games. Well, that’s important, too, but necessarily because these teams are competing for NCAA seeding. They very much are not.
Xavier needs this game to get ready for the Big East Tournament. If you’re no longer cheering for one of these, I wonder why you’re watching. Marquette needs this to have any chance of avoiding last place this season. The Golden Eagles finished last in the Big East once. I don’t think they want to add to that. Shaka Smart didn’t miss a game at Marquette, and that’s almost certainly going to happen this year unless they get themselves into a position that Xavier desperately needs.
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Team fingerprint
Offensively, the numbers weren’t great. Xavier’s shooting isn’t great, but compared to Marquette, their range is near death. The Golden Eagles rank 236th nationally in EFG%, 259th nationally in three-point field goal percentage, 205th nationally in two-point field goal percentage and 326th in free throw percentage. They don’t turn the ball over a lot, which is good, but their offensive rebounding is below average. Of course, this doesn’t matter the first time.
Defensively they rank 81st in the country. They got a lot of steals and were very good at forcing turnovers, but mediocre shot defense and an inability to rebound really held them back. All in all, they are a team that is not very good on both ends of the floor. That’s probably why their grades are 9-16.
player
|
Start the game |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Nigel James Jr. |
point guard |
All Wright |
|
newborn |
class |
Sophomore year |
|
6’0″, 190 |
Measured value |
6’3″, 190 |
|
15.2/3.1/4.7 |
game line |
7.5/1.8/2.1 |
|
47.1/39/70.8 |
firing line |
46.7/44.3/81.8 |
|
James was a very good baseball player after graduating from high school. He played a few warm-up games in college before being thrust into the starting lineup after a 16-shot shutout against Indiana. He dished out eight assists in four straight games in January and shot 45 percent from deep in the league, including a 7-9 win over Nova. He combines all of this offensive output with stellar defensive numbers. He may have stumbled a bit, but he’s a rookie who led the league in usage rate, so that’s forgivable. |
||
|
Adrian Stevens |
shooting guard |
Malik Messina-Moore |
|
newborn |
class |
advanced |
|
6’4″, 215 |
Measured value |
6 feet 5 inches, 200 |
|
7.4/2.4/1.7 |
game line |
10.8/2.8/3.6 |
|
44.8/39.4/78.9 |
firing line |
38.3/35.4/77.5 |
|
Stevens was actually more efficient than his classmate, but at less than half the usage rate. He is an excellent three-point shooter, and more than two-thirds of his three-pointers come from outside the three-point line. He’s strong defensively but doesn’t contribute much in terms of distributing the ball or rebounding. He’s not afraid to shoot himself in the cold; he’s 13-22 from three over the past three games after going 3-15 in the three games before that. |
||
|
Chase Ross |
small forward |
Trey Carroll |
|
advanced |
class |
advanced |
|
6’5″, 210 |
Measured value |
6’8″, 235 |
|
15/4/3.4 |
game line |
18/5.7/2.6 |
|
41.7/29.1/74.5 |
firing line |
50.1/33.3/66.3 |
|
You hate to say that increased usage exposes previously effective role players, but it’s hard to see what else is going on here. Rose is still an excellent defender, but his shooting line has struggled as a senior, and while his usage has soared, his efficiency has plummeted. He’s spending more time with the ball in his hands and increasing his assist count while maintaining a low TO rate, but if he falls out of the boat right now, he can’t hit the water. |
||
|
Royce Parham |
power forward |
Philip Borovikanin |
|
Sophomore year |
class |
advanced |
|
6’8″, 230 |
Measured value |
6’9″, 227 |
|
11.9/4.6/0.9 |
game line |
9.9/7.9/4.3 |
|
50.2/30.1/63.7 |
firing line |
43.8/32/85.7 |
|
Parham, on the other hand, has made great strides as a sophomore. His shooting numbers are a little deceiving. In non-shooting games, he shot 10-40 from beyond the arc, and in Big East play, he shot a respectable 35 percent from the field and a pretty good three-point percentage. He also shot over 66% on two-pointers. He’s not exactly a monster on the boards, but he is an efficient offensive player whose range gives Marquette a wide range of floor space. |
||
|
Ben Gold |
center |
Jovan Milicevic |
|
advanced |
class |
Sophomore year |
|
6’11”, 245 |
Measured value |
6’10”, 241 |
|
8.3/5.5/0.8 |
game line |
11.3/3.8/1.3 |
|
39.8/26.3/66.7 |
firing line |
43.3/40.7/69.1 |
|
Gold ranked second in the conference last year with an EFG% of 61%. He’s well outside the top ten this season with a 45.6% shooting percentage. In fact, he led the Big East in two-point shooting at 68.6 percent, but his 12-for-57 (21.1 percent) from beyond the arc in conference play was truly astounding. He rebounds well defensively and doesn’t turn the ball over, but a guy who has taken more than twice as many 3-pointers as 2-pointers in his career needs to take more than 1 out of every 5 attempts. |
reserves
Marquette may still be without service Sean Joneswho could end the season due to ongoing turf toe issues. In terms of bench players who haven’t started a game and are averaging double-digit minutes in the league, there’s only one: a second-year wing. Demaris Owens. Owens performed better in the league than in the non-league. He rebounded well on both ends of the floor. His scoring average increased from 2.6 points per game to 6.1 points per game, and his shooting percentage was a respectable .455/.310/.708. big man Kaedin Hamilton He had been a starter all season before the two teams met for the first time, but his role was significantly diminished as he shot 36 percent from the field in Big East play and was unable to avoid foul trouble. Trey Norman Marquette will certainly hope to fill the void left by Cam Jones, but he’s playing fewer minutes this season than he did the previous two years, and while his shooting percentage has improved, his turnover issues have seen his ORTG drop a full 10 points in conference play from last year. Freshman wins Michael Phillips II He has shot well from 3-point range at times this season, but has struggled in conference play and is 0-11 from two-point range in his college career. He has the athleticism to block shots and crash the boards, but also has a tendency to foul. 7 footer Josh Clark Has yet to carve out a stable role for himself. His rebounding and shot-blocking abilities are good, but his scoring efficiency is very poor. His free throw shooting rate this season is particularly bad, only 23%. His 6-and-6 against UConn on Jan. 4 may have heralded his breakthrough, but he has hit 6-and-9 in the 10 games since.
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three questions
– Did Xavier bounce back this time? The only time Marquette hit an offensive rebound and the last time it played was against #302 Little Rock. Sometimes six minutes can change a game. X needs to prevent a Golden Eagles team with a mediocre rebounding game from getting second chances.
– Can anyone avoid foul trouble? Usually it’s Jovan Milicevic, but Trey Carroll, Al Wright, Isaiah Walker, Malik Messina-Moore, Filip Borovikanen, Anthony Robinson, Pep Ndiaye and Roddy Anderson have all been fouled or limited with four fouls in the last month. This is spin. Over the past eight games, every Xavier player’s minutes have been cut short by fouls. This was unheard of, and Xavier’s situation was even worse.
– Whose rotation is bigger? Anthony Robinson flashed like a shooting star early in the season, then disappeared, and now he might be back. Pape N’Diaye had three games with nearly 50% playing time and then disappeared. Robinson is a threat to other more physical big men. Ndiaye is excellent as an off-ball shot blocker. Marquette’s guards love to get to the rim, and their tallest player is a three-point shooter. Will Coach Pitino prefer Ndiaye on defense or see if Anthony Robinson can guard Ben Gold?
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three keys
– Launch an attack: Xavier still only lost three games when his EFG was over 50%. One of them was stolen by the referee. When this team is on offense, they are tough to beat. 11-3 is a good number, and when they don’t make a shot, they’re 1-9, which is a stark reminder of how big the gap is.
– Find a way to give Trey Carroll a break: Xavier needs Tre, but Tre needs rest. When the ever-rotating forward started to tire, he started turning the ball over. Anything longer than 34 minutes will cause trouble. Outside of foul trouble, find a way to get Trae some second-half bench time.
– Pick up the pace: Marquette likes to use their defense to bog down games. Their defense ranks 349th in time of possession, forcing opponents to look for shots for nearly 19 seconds. Xavier can make them uncomfortable by doing what they want: running.
