Women’s NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: The debate continues. UConn or UCLA at No. 1?

Editor’s note: This article is part of a Bracket Central series that provides an in-depth look at preparations for the men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments, as well as analysis and picks during the tournament.

Well, guys, we did it. In just two days, we’ll have the official March Madness games. So let’s try one last time to understand what one committee member is thinking.

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top four

Storrs

16

sanford

16

Alabama A&M University

Los Angeles

16

Howard

16

high point

columbus

11

Texas A&M University

11

Arizona

richmond

11

virginia

11

richmond

fort worth 1

Storrs

1

University of Connecticut

16

sanford

Alabama A&M University

Storrs

8

University of Southern California

9

Princeton University

college park

5

michigan state university

12

colorado

college park

4

Maryland

13

green bay

columbus

6

Georgia

11

Texas A&M University

Arizona

columbus

3

Ohio State University

14

charleston

Baton Rouge

7

North Carolina

10

south dakota

Baton Rouge

2

Louisiana State University

15

jacksonville

fort worth 2

austin

1

Texas

16

fairlie dickinson

austin

8

illinois

9

colorado

norman

5

Ole Miss

12

gonzaga

norman

4

Oklahoma

13

Miami (Ohio)

Louisville

6

washington

11

james madison

iowa city

3

Louisville

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14

murray state

iowa city

7

baylor

10

Clemson

iowa city

2

Iowa

15

holy cross

sacramento 3

Los Angeles

1

UCLA

16

Howard

high point

Los Angeles

8

Villanova

9

tennessee

morgantown

5

North Carolina

12

rice

morgantown

4

west virginia

13

Stephen F. Austin

fort worth

6

alabama

11

virginia

richmond

fort worth

3

TCCU

14

western illinois

Durham

7

Texas Tech University

10

Iowa

Durham

2

Duke

15

california baptist

sacramento 4

austin

1

south carolina

16

Vermont

austin

8

Oklahoma

9

Syracuse

minneapolis

5

kentucky

12

fairfield

minneapolis

4

minnesota

13

Louisiana Tech

ann arbor

6

Notre Dame de Paris

11

Virginia Tech

ann arbor

3

michigan

14

University of California, Irvine

nashville

7

oregon

10

rhode island

nashville

2

Vanderbilt

15

idaho

Overall seed debate first place

Before the first reveal, I thought the committee would award UCLA the No. 1 seed overall given its overall resume. Instead, it went to the University of Connecticut. Given this precedent, I don’t think the official rankings will change – UConn will be the No. 1 overall seed, while UCLA slides into the No. 2 overall seed. Still, it’s an interesting debate because UCLA appears to have the best resume in the country after all the criteria set by the committee itself. The Bruins have one loss — an 11-point loss to Texas (SEC Tournament champion) in the Players Era Tournament in November. Since then, UCLA has won 25 straight games, gone undefeated in the Big Ten, won 18 Quads 1 and finished second in the NET rankings against the fifth-toughest schedule. The Bruins also have several of the same opponents as UConn, including Iowa State, USC, Ohio State and Tennessee, with each team coming away with a victory.

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As for the Huskies, they are certainly undefeated and feature the nation’s top player in Sarah Strong. UConn scheduled a tough non-conference matchup to offset a weak Big East regular season. The Huskies finished with nine Quad 1 wins, atop the NET rankings, and a top-22 schedule. Then comes the eye test. To me, the difference between these teams in this area is very small. So the question is, how important is being undefeated to the committee members? Is this more important than winning four games? More important than SOS? Or do you think UConn is that good at vision testing? All of these questions will be answered when it’s revealed on Sunday.

Which teams received the fourth seed and hosting rights?

Being one of the top 16 teams heading into March Madness is a huge advantage, as teams seeded No. 1 through No. 4 will host first- and second-round games at their respective campuses. Just failing to advance and earn a No. 5 seed is a crushing blow at the start of the NCAA tournament. After the conference tournament, Minnesota, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Maryland were ranked fourth, while Kentucky, Mississippi State, North Carolina and Michigan State were out.

Maryland and Kentucky are interesting here because they are prone to change. Their resumes are similar, with Maryland having one more Quad win and Kentucky having the better schedule. Two things may influence how committee members choose between these teams. First, Maryland’s win in the head-to-head matchup in November could sway their decision. Second, many of Kentucky’s losses came without starting big man Teonni Key, although she did play against Maryland. With the margins between these teams so narrow, committee members will likely debate those points when making their final decision.

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Who emerges after conference tournament?

West Virginia is the biggest winner in the conference tournament. The Mountaineers won the Big 12 Tournament, moving from a No. 5 seed to a No. 4 seed. After losing to TCU twice during the regular season, West Virginia added another signature win to its resume by defeating the Horned Frogs 62-53 in the title game.

Mississippi State struggled late in SEC play, losing to Florida State and Texas A&M in consecutive games, dropping the Rebels to the sixth seed. While it wasn’t enough to get them back into the hosting category, an 89-78 upset win over Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament moved them back into the fifth seed. Plus, beating the Commodores twice in one season is definitely good for morale.

Notre Dame also moved up to the No. 6 seed after ending the season on a high note. The Fighting Irish won seven straight before losing to Duke (the eventual champion) 65-63 in the ACC Tournament semifinals (remember, the committee is concerned with recent results). That close loss, combined with a late-season road win at Louisville, helped boost Notre Dame’s resume.

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Who’s hurting from conference tournament?

Michigan fell from a No. 2 seed to a No. 3 seed after losing to Iowa State, while Michigan State also dropped out of the hosting discussion after losing to Illinois at the start of the Big Ten Tournament. But of all the non-bubble teams, USC and Tennessee were hurt the most by first-round losses.

The Trojans are 17-13 and have lost four straight in the NCAA tournament, including a three-game set loss to Penn State. Beating Washington in the Big Ten Tournament would help them. There are a few things still working in their favor, including a huge win over Iowa State on Jan. 29, which means the Trojans should be safe from the bubble and likely get a No. 8 or No. 9 seed.

The Lady Vols, meanwhile, face a tryout Sunday and are in even worse shape than USC, having lost 10 of their past 12 games. Nebraska ended the game in a similar fashion, but I had the Huskers out and the Lady Vols coming in. Here’s why: Despite losing a ton of games at the end of both the regular season and tournament, and competing in the top two conferences, Tennessee has the edge due to its overall body of work. Recency is important, but it’s an even bigger factor for Nebraska as the Huskers have just one Quad-1 win to Tennessee’s five wins. Here’s why I think Tennessee will get the No. 9 seed.

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The major conference tournaments concluded last weekend, but many mid-major teams are still snapping up tickets to the big dance. This is someone who won’t sweat as much on Sunday.

NCAA Tournament Automatic Qualifier

Want to fill out your bracket during tryouts? Before your pick comes Sunday, download the printable bracket here.

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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

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