Where snowfall will be the worst this weekend: Map

British stone. LOUIS – The weekend is getting closer and a snowstorm is expected to dump several inches of powder in the FOX 2 viewing area.

Based on recent data, we are very confident that the vast majority of our viewing area will see at least four inches of snow, while some counties will see much more than that. Four inches will serve as our starting baseline, while our worst-case scenario is close to a foot of snow, possibly more by the end of the storm on Sunday.

It all depends on how the system comes together Saturday night.

As of Thursday morning, the weekend systems we’re tracking are actually two systems – one in northern Alaska and another off the coast of California. We are trying to determine when the two energies merge, which is a very complex process. Even small changes in the timing, location, or merger of mergers can disrupt the consistency of the temperature profile and where precipitation (snow) forms.

Dry air in the viewing area will have a large impact on Saturday’s snowfall intensity, but the impact will lessen that evening.

The data now more strongly suggest the existence of a two-wave system. The first wave will arrive Saturday, possibly leaving one to three inches of light snow. There will be no intermissions or lulls until the evening, when precipitation becomes thin and sporadic. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see drizzle or sleet lasting several hours between waves. Not because of the warm/dry air, but because of changes in cloud physics in between. The second wave of snow will arrive between 9 pm and midnight, with moderate to heavy snow on Sunday morning. Flurries may linger until the early afternoon before the system clears out.

However, with a two-wave system, the largest snowfall totals will occur in areas where the two waves “double dip.” The areas with the most overlap are along and southeast of Interstate 44 and south of the St. Louis metropolitan area. We can expect 6 to 10 inches in these areas, centered on a line near Rolla through Park Hills/Farmington and then along the Kaskaskia River into Illinois.

St. Louis Radar: View current weather map here

Deeper bands of 8 to 12 inches of snow are possible in the southernmost viewing areas of Reynolds, Iron and Madison counties in southeastern Missouri. The I-70 corridor will take a brief hit from the first wave, but will likely be hit by the full brunt of the second wave. As we become more confident about the trajectory of the second wave, we are observing widespread accumulations totaling four to eight inches across the metro area.

Winds won’t be very strong, but will become gusty, reaching gusts of 20 to 25 miles per hour, which will cause drifting snow, especially in open areas and rural areas.

New data is emerging all the time. You can watch our shows on our smart TV app. FOX2STL+ or FOX 2 mobile app (via the Apple or Google app stores).